Tuesday(10month25During the Asian session, spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading in1646dollar/盎司附近,美国9monthPMIPoor data performance, market sentiment towards the Federal Reserve12Monthly interest rate increase75The expected cooling of one basis point has provided support for gold prices, and gold prices have remained stable on Monday5日均线,暗示多头仍有机会。不过,美债收益率仍然处于十余年的高位,市场对英国政局的担忧情绪降温,也略微打压黄金的避险需求。
另外,本周欧洲央行大概率将加息75Basis points, market expects US Q3GDPWill increase year-on-year2.1%Expected in the United States9monthPCEIt will also remain at a high level and will still limit the upward potential of gold prices.
美国最新公布的数据显示,10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIInitial value drops to49.9, falling below the boom bust line, refreshing28Month low point. This data is lower than9Of the month52, also lower than expected51. Meanwhile, the service industryPMIAlso weaker than expected, from9Of the month49.3Further fall into the contraction range46.6. Economists previously predicted thatPMIby49.6左右。数据公布之后,现货黄金短线一度上涨约9USD, returning1650Above the US dollar, but soon fell back to trading below this level.
虽然黄金被认为是对冲通胀的工具,但利率上升提高了持有零收益黄金的机会成本,导致今年迄今黄金价格下跌了9%以上。市场普遍预期美联储将在11月会议上将基准隔夜利率上调75个基点。在此之前,投资者将密切关注本周公布的美国GDPAnd the corePCE通胀数据,而市场也普遍预期欧洲央行将升息75Basis points.
Technical analysis of gold:
Gold opened yesterday at1658附近,亚盘直接冲高1671一线的压力位置后开始走跌运行,欧盘继续走跌运行,美盘开盘后继续走跌,刷新日内新低至1644一线的支撑位置,而后低位震荡收盘,日线收取小阴走势。日线上看布林带逐渐在走平的状态,K线暂时在中轨附近运行,MA5as well asMA10均线在中轨一带走平运行走势,MACDThe trend of energy column volume expansion,KDJ指标金叉,日线整体看继续看探底回升的走势,今日低多,支撑看反弹上涨。短周期看布林带逐渐在收口,K线昨日维持在上下轨来回震荡走势,MA5as well asMA10均线中轨附近开始向上发散运行状态,MACD能量柱缩减运行,KDJ指标金叉,短周期看继续看上涨,低多反弹上涨。
Short line1小时方面,金价昨日早间测试了1670后快速回落,目前运行于1648附近,从k线的反应来看,1670的压力还是比较大的,这里是双底的1倍量附近,具有阻力也是正常的,加上上周五连续的拉升,金价面临调整的需求,不过从指标状态来看,金价的多头动能较为充足,这表明金价很难出现较大幅度的回调,短线可以关注双底颈线1645的支撑,围绕此位置附近布局多单即可,此位置也是4小时的初步支撑,日内围绕此位置上方布局多单即可,若短线出现回调,预计不会跌破颈线1635,而是在颈线上方回调结束,开启新的上涨,具体可以参考之前双底形成后的走势。综合来看,今日黄金短线操作思路上建议回调做多为主,反弹做空为辅,上方短期重点关注1660-1665Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1640-1643Frontline support, friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Analysis of crude oil message surface:10month25At the beginning of the Asian market on Tuesday, American Oil Trading Co., Ltd84.81dollar/桶附近;油价周一在震荡交投中收低,数据显示9月亚洲需求仍然乏善可陈,而且美元走强打压油市,但美国企业活动数据疲软缓解了对更激进加息的预期,并限制了油价跌幅。市场分析,需求不足,美元走强打压油价,油价或维持85dollar/桶附近震荡;日内油价或受欧盟举行能源部长会议,以及警惕就地缘紧张局势的不确定性风险,俄罗斯可能计划将“脏弹”威胁作为升级乌克兰局势的借口的相关消息,油价短线或拉锯。
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil: Yesterday's Cross of Crude OilK线震荡收平,日线已经连续三根十字K线窄幅整理,空间上维持在上周的区间87.0-82.0之间来回拉锯,也是昨日给出的震荡操作区间,日线连续十字进入钝化整理当中。消息方面:数据显示9月亚洲需求仍然乏善可陈,而且美元走强打压油市,但美国企业活动数据疲软缓解了对更激进加息的预期,并限制了油价跌幅。