Yu Yue on Jin:10.20黄金今日最新行情策略分析及独家多单解套...

　goldMarket trend analysis;



Thursday（10month20日）亚洲时段，现货黄金延续跌势，一度创逾三周新低至1624.03dollar/盎司，美国十年期国债收益率时隔14年升破4.10%，带动美元周三上涨0.7%，对金价打压明显，此外，英国、欧元区、加拿大等国CPI居高不下，强化了未来这些国家的央行将大幅加息的预期，投资者担忧持有黄金的机会成本增加，纷纷抛售黄金。有分析师表示，市场继续对美联储激进收紧货币政策感到相当担忧。我们的利率会有一个相当陡峭的上升，而且可能不会有一个非常快速的转折，所以黄金市场正在（对此）做出反应。据CMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve11Monthly interest rate increase50Bps to3.50%-3.75%The probability of the interval is5.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is94.5%； reach12Monthly cumulative interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is1.2%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is24.2%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is74.7%，整体来看，美债收益率的持续走高，对金价压制明显，全球多数央行进一步激进加息的预期料将进一步压制金价，当然，投资者还需提防地缘局势升级或者初请数据意外大幅恶化等其他突发情况导致的市场情绪转变。



　　黄金技术面分析；黄金周三中阴线下挫收低，在经过周初两个交易日的小阳线整理修正蓄势，昨日借助美元上涨，金价承压下行，开盘维持在1654After the consolidation of nearby weaknesses, European and American stocks broke through lows1640Establish a downward trend within the day, with a minimum refresh to1627This week's new low, with the daily line breaking low and closing low, today's short term relies on breaking low1640Look for further decline. Collaborate with the method of organizing and correcting while falling. 4The hour chart continues the downward wave pattern, which was previously1684The pressure bearing structure fell in the second wave, maintaining a weak consolidation below the high point of the second wave in the first two trading days of this week, but it did not show a weak break below the low. After gaining momentum, we broke through and opened up space yesterday. Today at the top and bottom conversion ports1640Obstruction will further lead to a downward trend. At present, the moving average indicator is turning downward and has downward momentum in the short term. Combined with yesterday's weak point sorting and correction techniques, the correction of the weak point in Lianyin is combined with the correction of the small positive line. Further innovation low.1Last night, the hourly chart showed a weak trend and a downward trend. The two reverse high points in the end of the day were1646  1637.Neutral value at1640.Low point seen from below1615In the area, if you break the position, you can see1600.结构上已经打开下行空间，保持反弹看空思路。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上建议上方短期重点关注1646-1651Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1618-1613Frontline support.



　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;



　　10month20At the beginning of the Asian market on Thursday, American Oil Trading Co., Ltd84.76dollar/桶附近；油价周三上涨超2.5%，因对供应收紧的谨慎态度抵消了不确定的需求以及美国将从其储备中释放更多原油带来的负面影响，上周美国原油库存意外下降，美国柴油需求激增，而美国只有25天的柴油供应量，为2008年以来最低。美国能源信息署(EIA)周三表示，上周美国原油库存下降，因为炼油厂在同期的平均水平以上运行，而需求比前一周有所改善。在截至10month14During the current week, crude oil inventory decreased170Ten thousand barrels, to4.374Billion barrels. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected an increase140Ten thousand barrels. Refineries continue to operate at high capacity utilization rates. Last week, the refining volume decreased every day13.310000 barrels, reducing refinery capacity utilization0.4Percentage points to89.5%。 according toEIAThe data at this level is still19The highest in years, as refineries increase production to make up for low inventory nationwide.EIAIt is stated that the original oil depot at the Cushing Delivery Center in Oklahoma increased last week58.3Ten thousand barrels. US gasoline inventory decreased last week11.4Ten thousand barrels. In general, inventory decline and demand surge boost oil prices, and the measures to implement Price ceiling on Rosneft will not be copied toOPECOil producing countries, coupled with Putin's strengthening of Russia's combat layout, have seen a surge in geopolitical uncertainty risks, and oil prices may fluctuate more in the short term.



　　原油昨日下探回升收高，日线收成小阳KLine. Short term exploration82.50The front line starts to stabilize and remains at the low point of the previous day, which is also the lower track82.0Above, there is a organizing rebound, but the rhythm is still oscillatory. At one point in the late trading session, it hit the upper track of the previously mentioned downward channel, and as the daily line rebounded and closed higher, the short-term trend became volatile. A step by step correction technique.4The hourly chart rebounded and corrected yesterday, which is also a normal trend. After a rapid decline in volume at the beginning of the week, it hit the lower track of the downward channel0.618At the support point, while the moving average indicator has not yet fully turned downwards60The unit moving average is still above and has not turned a dead fork downwards. Make local actions insufficient, resulting in short-term small level oversold rebound after a large decline. Currently returning to85.0中性值震荡。日内仍要重点关注86.0One defensive point is the upper track of the downward channel, and it is also a short-term short position defensive point,87.0It is the critical point for the steps to descend, and this position is not retracted. There is still a possibility of a new decline in the short term. Just looking at how to wash dishes in the short term.1Hour chartK线结构有轻微反弹的迹象，但能否突破关键防守来决定后市空间延续。综上所述，今日原油操作思路上建议上方短期重点关注86-87Frontline resistance, short-term focus below82-83Frontline support.