ATFXThe Reserve Bank of Australia has released meeting minutes indicating that the overall global inflation rate has stopped...

today9:30The Reserve Bank of Australia released meeting minutes, which mentioned that the latest data shows that overall inflation rates in most economies, except for Europe, have stopped rising. However, the potential inflation rate is still high, so it is premature to conclude that this represents a change in trend. The so-called overall inflation rate has stopped rising refers to the United States8Monthly comprehensiveCPIGrowth rate from8.5%Fallback to8.3%And it's also the second decline. The so-called high potential inflation rate refers to the United States8Monthly core inflation rate from5.9%Raise to6.3%The side effects of excessive currency issuance are still present. Accurately identifying the turning point of global inflation is crucial, as it determines the direction of monetary policy for most central banks in developed countries. The Reserve Bank of Australia believes that "the trend change is still too early", which means that it does not believe that an inflation turning point is coming, and naturally will not stop following the pace of Fed funds raising interest rates.

For the domestic price trend, the Reserve Bank of Australia predicts that "inflation is expected to peak later this year and then fall back to 2% to 3% The target scope. The so-called 'later this year' can be understood as before the end of the year. The inflation rate in Australia for the second quarter is6.1%It has risen for four consecutive periods. If this year12If there is a turning point in monthly inflation, it will take at least the second quarter of next year for inflation to fall back to3%following. Since the beginning of this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates five times in a row, with benchmark rates ranging from0.1%Soaring to2.35%The yield of treasury bond also rose in a straight angle. Nevertheless, the Australian dollar is still depreciating significantly against the US dollar,AUDUSDThe decline within the year has exceeded7%This means that regardless of how the inflation rate in Australia reaches a suitable turning point and how the Reserve Bank of Australia adjusts its monetary policy,AUDUSDThe trend will not be significantly affected. Because of the decisionAUDUSDThe key forces driving the rise and fall come from the Federal Reserve and the US economy. As long as the Federal Reserve does not stop raising interest rates,AUDUSDIt's difficult to stop the decline and rebound.

In the meeting minutes, the Reserve Bank of Australia also made a basic judgment on the development of China's macroeconomy: the recovery is facing huge obstacles. In the view of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Chinese economy faces two persistent problems: "overly strict epidemic control" and "sluggish real estate transactions", as well as temporary issues such as "electricity shortages during dry months". To achieve the annual economic growth target, "infrastructure investment" will become the most important policy tool. If China's economic policy in the fourth quarter does indeed lean towards "large-scale infrastructure", the demand for iron ore will increase significantly, and Australia's exports will be boosted to a certain extent. The meeting minutes also mentioned that due to relatively weak macroeconomic data, the People's Bank of China will further relax its monetary policy. This will lead to a continued widening of the interest rate differential between China and the United States, and the offshore RMB exchange rate will also rise accordingly.

The last part of the meeting minutes states: 'Members believe that as the level of cash interest rates increases, the reasons for slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes are becoming increasingly strong.'. Under the global trend of interest rate hikes, it is rare for the Reserve Bank of Australia to propose the view of "slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes". Although the global high inflation problem will continue in the coming months, it is constrained bycrude oilThe possibility of a price drop and a new high in inflation rate is already very low. The US dollar index may touch in the fourth quarter115The integer threshold, but there will be more and more funds betting on its peak and decline.

ATFXBrief viewpoint of the analyst team: The Reserve Bank of Australia's statement on the global inflation situation is very objective and does not blindly believe that inflation will continue, which is worth carefully studying.

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There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.
2022-09-20