Dingsheng Jinshi:9.20今日黄金走势分析，多空游荡，静候利率决...

What are the recent news impactsgoldcrude oilTrend? Where is the trend of gold going?


　　​周二(9month20day)亚市盘中，现货黄金自日内接近1680dollar/盎司的高点回落，金价目前跌至1674dollar/盎司附近。美联储将在周三结束为期两天的政策会议，预计届时将加息75个基点，以应对居高不下的通胀，市场甚至认为美联储加息100The probability of a basis point is20%。短期内，黄金可能继续受到实际收益率走高的影响，而美联储进一步加息推高了实际收益率。然而，从投资组合构建的角度来看，由于预期中衰退力量的上升和顽固的通胀，再加上美联储的转向(意味着美元见顶)，黄金在困难时期似乎是一种非常防御性的资产，引发金价飙升的时机已经成熟，因为市场的看跌面过于拥挤。


　　投资者把注意力投向了本周美联储的政策会议，以及美联储将多激进地加息。市场完全消化了美联储在9month20-21日政策会议结束时至少加息75个基点的可能性，联邦基金利率futures走势显示加息100The probability of a basis point is15%。除了事前谨慎之外，清淡的日历和平静的宏观环境也促成了金属在周二早盘亚洲市场的不作为。由于缺乏重大更新和日本和英国的银行假期，市场开始了关键的一周，其中包括多个央行以一种冒险的方式发布公告。在周三的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)之前，围绕中国和美元的疲软表现也让黄金交易员保持谨慎。接下来，在关键的周三之前，更多的美国住房数据和完整的市场将黄金交易员感到高兴。鉴于美联储加息已经定价，如果FOMC未能提供任何主要的鹰派理由来支持货币政策收紧，金价可能会出现反弹。


　　——9.20黄金行情走势分析及操作策略参考——


　　黄金昨日先抑后扬回升收平，日线收盘小阴十字K线，二次回测1659.80一线启稳，尾盘再慢慢收复失地，今日早盘开盘在1678附近。重新逼近1680阻力关口。而短线图走出了二次下探回升，短线有轻微启稳反弹之迹象，加上美元短期回落，提振金价暂时先走反弹修正。今日或许先走反弹。欧美盘再承压回落，局部进入拉锯震荡，美元短期的阴晴不定，限制了黄金的单边动能。日线昨日小阴十字依旧看不出强弱，等待今明两日的形态确认。


　　4The hour chart was accompanied by a second downward dip and rebound, and the station was once again on the Bollinger Road medium track, breaking the weak decline style relying on the medium track. At the same time, the attached pictureMACDThe low gold cross rebounded upwards. And the low point1655-1660Formed a small upward trend line support. Short term may rely on1660Take a wave of rebound correction first, but the strength of the rebound should be determined based on the intraday shape, and the frequency of switching between long and short positions. Flexibility is also necessary in operation. The rebound support line of the hour chart moves to1665.If on the short line station1680.Further upward rebound testing will be conducted1690-1695一带。空间由形态而定，目前初步是呈现反弹修正通道。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上鼎盛金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方关注1688-1690USD resistance, follow below1660-1665Support.


　　9.20Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1680-1685Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1670-1665Nearby, break down and take a look1660frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1665-1667Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss5Points, target1675-1680Nearby, break down and take a look1690frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


　　——9.20今日原油分析——


　　目前伊朗核谈判再度出现波折，之前一直比较顺利，但是目前再度就一些细则上出现了分歧，短期给市场一定支撑，只是美联储持续激进加息，对于经济下行的风险更大，所以偏空的情绪压制是更为持续，上个交易日也是跟黄金一样，原油在85.8Nearby oscillations have been falling all the way, with European and American markets accelerating downward and touching81.8Nearby, and then quickly hit the highest point again in the evening85.7On the first line, the roller coaster trend is basically the same, and in the short term, it is also a very obvious repeated consolidation trend87-88Strong pressure, below81-82The front line has formed a phased low point platform support, and the middle position appears awkward. There is plenty of space, but it is not big. However, defense is difficult to do, so the middle position can be seen more and moved less. Crude oil rebound86.4-5Nearby air, defense87.5Look84-83Step back below82There are many nearby, defense81.2Look84-5First line, for reference only, specific firm offer provided


Serve as an analyst and commentator for well-known financial channels such as "Golden Net" and "Globalforeign exchange》Professional contributors to several well-known financial forums such as "Huitong Net" and "Zhongjin Net", specializing in short, medium, and long term operations of gold, crude oil, and silver. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market. Suggestions are for reference only; This article is original by Dingsheng Jinshi, who carefully writes every analysis and conveys valuable investment concepts. If there is any similarity, it is purely plagiarism. Readers should be discerning and respect originality!