Yu Yue on Jin:9.14Analysis of the Latest Market Trend of Gold and Crude Oil in the Evening and Exclusive Solution...

　　goldLatest Market Analysis



Wednesday(9month14day)In the European market, the US dollar index experienced a correction after yesterday's sharp rise, and the index experienced a short-term decline, just below109.50Within the day, it fell by approximately45Point. Spot gold is rapidly rising in the short term, and gold prices have just broken through1705dollar/Ounces. Focus on the United States on this trading day8monthPPIData and Market Impact on the Federal Reserve9Pay attention to the changes in expected interest rate hikes in the month, and keep an eye out for news related to the geopolitical situation. Overall, althoughMThe sharp decline in stocks, lingering concerns about the geopolitical situation and global economic recession, may provide support for gold prices in the medium to long term, but in the short term, the Federal Reserve9Increase interest rates at least once a month75The expectation of a basis point is further strengthened, and even interest rates are raised100The expectation of a basis point has also begun to rise, and the US dollar has once again strengthened, which is expected to further suppress gold prices in the short term. And the gold price has surged multiple times21After the daily moving average was obstructed, it fell back, and the short-term bearish signal also significantly increased, breaking down in the future1680The risk of key support has also increased.



I believe that given that inflation will remain high, it means that the risk of anchoring inflation expectations still exists, which may lead to inflation stabilizing at a high level. This also means that in the foreseeable future, the more obvious risk of interest rate hikes will not disappear. Inflation data has sparked market concerns that the Federal Reserve may raise US borrowing costs faster and further than previously expected. According to the latest data from the "Federal Reserve Observation" tool of the Chishang Exchange, the Federal Reserve is determined to raise interest rates for at least the third consecutive time this month75Basis points, interest rate hike100Possibility of exceeding one basis point30%. Even if there is a sharp shift in global risk sentiment(If the stock market drops sharply)May provide some support for safe haven gold. However, the fundamental environment has determined that the path of least resistance to gold prices remains downward. Looking ahead to the rest of this week, US retail sales data and University of Michigan consumer confidence data will be the most important. The expectation that Russia will suffer a heavy blow after withdrawing from parts of Ukraine has also dampened market sentiment and gold prices.



Technical analysis of gold: Daily level of gold: Yesterday, the pressure on the medium rail closed in a big negative, which has disrupted the slow upward rebound channel of the previous few days, indicating that the medium rail is expected to form a new short-term turning point, gradually suppressing the downward trend, and continuing to test1690-1680Bottom; Repeated probing of low positions makes it easier to break through1680The key support points, as mentioned earlier, to form a good bottom, it is generally necessary to accelerate a sharp decline with a large yin before it can slowly form. Therefore1680This position is likely to be breached unless the Federal Reserve raises interest rates next Thursday50Point, except for this small probability, if it continues to run, it will be sooner or later to break through; And according to2070The theoretical calculation of the same decline since the top fell shows that the first three waves are basically200US dollars, fourth wave from1808Start, also get close1608Only on the first line can there be good buying support, and it is also a good opportunity to buy at the bottom in the later stage. This position happens to be at the weekly and annual moving average, and at this time, the price is relatively far away from it. Let's take a closer look at each step; In short, no matter what, the short trend continues to remain short, and any rebound in volatility is a short-term correction that will eventually be hit back to the bottom and remain short oriented;



Overnight Gold Price Decline1%The trend is in line with our expectations. Recently, I have repeatedly emphasized that before the interest rate resolution, only high gold will be held. Adhere to the high-altitude strategy without wavering. Even if the Dayang Line continues to rise, I haven't changed direction because I believe in my judgment and my logic. Making money relies on logic and is different from others. You should not panic and believe in yourself just because of a positive line. Technically, gold continuously breaks below the support level and falls below1715Falling below1710Gold will continue to decline. Yesterday's decline has given prices another try1680On the first line, it is expected that the rebound force will not be too large within the day and the downward trend will continue. This year, the price of gold has dropped several times from1680Nearby stop falling and rebound, if we say we have broken through again in the near future1691,1680The probability of breaking through multiple touches will increase. The best choice today is definitely to focus on rebounding short positions, with the best single point position for short positions being1710Nearby, as time goes by, if the early market does not rebound, the European market may arrive earlier1706-07Falling. In summary, today's gold trading strategy suggests that the main focus should be on short selling through rebound, supplemented by long selling through pullback. Please pay attention to the above1715-1720USD resistance, follow below1690-1694To support, it is necessary to control the position and stop loss issues, strictly set stop losses, and do not operate against orders. The recent market turbulence has been significant, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Control risks and increase profits.



　　crude oilLatest Market Analysis



Wednesday(9month14day)International oil prices have remained basically stable. Although the United States8Consumer prices unexpectedly rose in the month, and the market is concerned that the Federal Reserve will further accelerate interest rate hikes next week, but two major industry organizations predict strong demand growth in the future.OPECIn the monthly report, it is stated that,2022Annual oil demand will increase31010000 barrels/Day,2023Annual increase27010000 barrels/On the day, its forecast remained unchanged from last month. Expected2023In, oil demand will continue to be supported by the steady economic performance of major consumer countries, as well as the potential improvement of COVID-19 restrictions and the reduction of geopolitical uncertainty. " International Energy Agency(IEA)On Wednesday, it was announced that the demand growth forecast for this year will be lowered1110000 barrels/Day, to20010000 barrels/Japan, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD)Rich countries in China have accounted for the majority of demand growth this year. butIEAThe growth of global oil demand will be reflected in2023Strong recovery in the year,OECDOther countries will support growth next year. The strong US dollar and the Federal Reserve's expectation of another large-scale interest rate hike have dampened market sentiment. The United States is the biggest uncertainty factor, and if the demand outlook weakens, oil may resume its downward trajectory since the beginning of the summer The American Petroleum Institute announced overnight(API)Inventory data display, as of9month9During the current week, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly surged603.5Ten thousand barrels. Official US Energy Information Administration(EIA)Weekly inventory data will be available on Wednesday Beijing time22:30Take out the furnace.



From a technical perspective, crude oil rebounded after a daily fluctuation and decline;KDJGolden fork,MACDPreliminary gold cross and red bar, oil price has been held for two consecutive trading days85.00Frontline support,KThe bullish signal of the "Red Three Soldiers" on the line is still on the defensive85.00Before the checkpoint, the future market still tends to fluctuate upwards, with initial resistance on the Bollinger Line's mid track89.43Nearby, if the resistance can be overcome, increase the short-term bullish signal and further increase the resistance9month5Daily high point90.36Nearby, strong resistance8month31Daily high point92.71Nearby, if this resistance can be overcome, oil prices are expected to further test the Bollinger Line track and200The dual resistance level of the daily moving average, currently within96.83Nearby. Due to the current suppression of oil prices by the Bollinger Line's medium track, which also recorded a cross star on the previous trading day, investors also need to be wary of the possibility of oil prices returning to a downward trend if they break below85.00If the level is supported, short-term bearish signals will be added; Bolin Line Underrail Support82.03Nearby, recent low point support81.17Nearby, then80Support near integer levels, further strengthening support at1month10Daily low point77.83Nearby. Overall, today's short-term operation strategy is mainly focused on a pullback to lower levels, supplemented by a rebound to higher levels, with a focus on short-term operations above90.8-91.3Frontline resistance, short-term focus below83.5-84Frontline support.