Dingsheng Jinshi:9.12Today's gold trend analysis, the US index has plummeted, bulls are looking for it...

——Recent data guidelinesgoldHow to judge the bullish or bearish trend of gold prices——


Monday（9month12At the end of the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading at1718Near the US dollar, although the high retracement of the US dollar has provided some opportunities for gold prices to rebound, and the geopolitical situation has also provided support for gold prices, the rebound of gold prices has been affected multiple times8month22Daily low point1727.69Nearby resistance suppression suggests strong selling pressure above, given the intensive support from Federal Reserve officials before the quiet period9Monthly interest rate hike75One basis point, the European Central Bank is raising interest rates75After a few basis points, investors also promised to further raise interest rates and strengthen this expectation in the market. The opportunity cost of holding gold continues to increase, and investors need to be cautious of the risk of gold prices returning to a downward trend.


Attention to the UK on this trading day7monthGDPFocus on industrial output data and market sentiment towards the United StatesCPIExpected changes in data and news related to geopolitical situations. Federal Reserve officials will see on Tuesday9The final round of monthly inflation data will be released before the monthly meeting. But officials downplayed the importance of any single data point this week and emphasized their determination to continue raising interest rates, until now at40The annual high inflation continues to decline. This week, we will focus on Tuesday's inflation indicator, the US Consumer Price Index(CPI). And Thursday in the United States8Monthly retail sales data will be an important indicator of consumer performance after the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate hike. At present, the market expects inflation to decrease again, retail data will also be strengthened, and the market believes that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates75The probability of a basis point is90%. Therefore, overall, data slightly below expectations or meeting expectations may not be enough to change market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike later this month. So, there is still a risk of a decline in gold prices this week, or limited rebound momentum. Unless the data is much weaker than expected, it will support the upward breakthrough of gold prices1750Above the US dollar.


　　——9.12Gold Analysis——


The trend of gold last week was very chaotic, mainly due to the abnormal trend of the US dollar, which led to unstable bullish and bearish sentiment towards gold in the marketkThe frequency of the lines is varied and the direction of the short lines is not clear. According to the current gold daily structure, although it was down last week1690Looking for support on the front line, but the rebound rhythm is too fast and difficult to control, and the daykThe interweaving of positive and negative lines and frequent bullish and bearish transitions indicate that the market sentiment is very unstable, and there must be a rebound in sentiment. However, there is pressure above that cannot break, making it difficult to open up a new upward trend. In addition, the fundamental environment is not very supportive of the strong rebound of gold, resulting in gold, although slightly strong, without actual effective upward momentum. At the beginning of this week, it is highly likely that gold will continue to fluctuate, with a focus on the previous low points and20The pressure of daily line construction1730First line, follow below first5Daily line1712-10Competition, market impact5The choice of daily chart may also affect the short-term direction expectation.


From4From an hourly perspective, the price trend is a slight slow increase. Currently, the price is running above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. If the price breaks through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands and goes down, then look ahead1698On the front line, the pressure above is1728-1730On the front line, there is still a wide range of oscillations. Last Friday, a wave of gold's decline pierced through20After the daily trend, it is basically in a sideways oscillation state, and there is a possibility of forming a small-scale downward relay pattern in the technical structure. That is, if there is no strong rebound in the market at the beginning of the week, it is likely to fall again under the consumption of time. From the hourly chart, it can be seen that the price arrived early today1720After encountering obstacles on the front line and falling back, the price is currently at its lowest due to the suppression of the central rail in the forest belt1711On the front line, the Bollinger Bands began to open up,MACDIndicator Green Energy Pillar Release,KDJForming a dead cross, short-term weakness, following below within the day1710-1712On the front line support situation, if the European market consolidates horizontally, we are optimistic about a pullback before the US market. If the European market breaks through the high, we are optimistic about a rebound after the US market falls. In summary, in terms of today's gold trading strategy, Dingsheng Jinshi suggests a pullback and a long position as the main approach, with a rebound and short position as a supplement. Please pay attention to the above1728-1730USD resistance, follow below1710-1712Support.


Golden Operation Strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1726-1728Short (buy down) two tenths of a position nearby, stop loss6Points, target1720-1712Nearby, break down and take a look1710frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1710-1712Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss5Points, target1720-1730Nearby, break down and take a look1735frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


　　——9.12crude oilAnalysis——


We waited all day last Friday86.2The first wave of nearby short orders fell to85.2Nearby, second wave86.2Short orders falling to85.6Due to limited profits, he was not eliminated in a timely manner and eventually defended himself12Make a small profit to get out of the game, and prompt that even if you want to go and get it2Keep a small stop loss, break the high and stop the loss. In the end, if the market is slow to fall, the highest impact will be reached87.1Nearby, it falls back again.


The current support resistance for crude oil is also relatively clear, with key pressure from above87.2-3Front line, key support below84Nearby, first drop within the day84There are many nearby connections, but if we drop back first84Rebound to86.1-3Can be empty; If the pullback is not in place and the rebound is not in place, the first short order will be placed87Near.


Crude oil operation strategy:


Crude oil falls within the day84.1There are many nearby, defense83.4see85.1-86.2, first retreat to84Further rebound can be achieved in86.2-3empty


If the retracement is not in place and a direct rebound is made, the first short order will be placed87Nearby, defense87.7see86-85-84


Serve as an analyst and commentator for well-known financial channels such as "Golden Net" and "Globalforeign exchange》Professional contributors to several well-known financial forums such as "Huitong Net" and "Zhongjin Net", specializing in short, medium, and long term operations of gold, crude oil, and silver. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market. Suggestions are for reference only; This article is original by Dingsheng Jinshi, who carefully writes every analysis and conveys valuable investment concepts. If there is any similarity, it is purely plagiarism. Readers should be discerning and respect originality!