Dingsheng Jinshi:8.26今日黄金走势分析，鲍威尔年会讲话来袭，...

——8.26todaygold最新行情走势及操作思路布局解析——


　　国际黄金开盘受到隔夜回落力量先行走低，另外美元指数延续隔夜触底回落先行走强也对其产生压力。白盘也仍有走低风险。


　　日内将先行关注美盘时段的美国7Monthly CorePCEPrice index annual rate, United States7月个人支出月率和美国7Monthly CorePCE物价指数月率。整体预期有所偏利好金价，将会对金价在美盘初产生支撑反弹。


　　不过随后22点，还将公布美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值，市场预期将偏利空金价，同时美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上也将发表讲话，以寻找美联储升息策略的暗示。目前市场预期将维持其激进的货币政策立场。对金价形成打压。故此今日震荡承压的概率较大。


　　综合来看，虽然美国通胀率仍维持在年率8.5%的水平，远高于美联储2%的目标。仍将支撑美联储维持激进的加息策略，近期美联储官员也陆续表现鹰派，这使得9Monthly interest rate increase75个基点概率增加，但个人认为，如不加息100个基点，这也只能使金价短线承压。就目前的反弹力度看，打压影响有限，回落仍可继续看反弹。


　　如果鲍威尔对货币紧缩的影响和经济前景表示担忧，暗示美国经济前景需采取更为谨慎的态度，这可能表明美联储将放弃更大规模的升息，美元可能会继续遇阻回落，金价将继续反弹走强。


　　另外，在美联储持续收紧政策的最后两个时期，金价实际上强劲上涨，回顾以往，从2004year6Month to2006year7月的两年间，美联储加息17次，金价上涨了42%。近期来看，黄金图表技术信号虽仍看空。但从长期来看，黄金仍有上涨潜力。


　　——技术面解析——


　　日线级别：金价隔夜虽继续走强，但在收盘有明显回落，今日开盘也先行走低，走势也仍未突破中轨，故此日内存在短期反弹见顶风险，不过附图指标KDJandMACD整体仍保持看涨信号，暗示走势仍偏向延续反弹，故此关注日内回落空间和力度，仍可看涨入场。下方留意5日均线支撑，上方关注中轨线阻力情况。


Preliminary point reference for the day:


Follow Below1748美元附近支撑，以及1743美元支撑择机可多；上方关注1759Resistance near the US dollar, and1767美元阻力择机可空；


　　——8.26crude oilAnalysis——


　　原油日线也是处于多空转换的阶段，也就是震荡拉锯，多空都有机会。4After the bottom rebound at the beginning of the week, after yesterday's volume increase, there is not enough room for upward action,4Hour after hour, it went through a series of highs and lows, falling below the Bollinger track and the previous day's low. In this stepped rebound market, once it breaks the previous day's low, the short-term structure will change. However, after breaking the low yesterday, it closed at a low level. Today, the short-term structure will first move back down. Let's take a look at the track first91.0.1The hourly chart has been confirmed to have retreated for the first time after a chronic rise, and the attached indicators have no momentum. Currently, the small cycle tends to decline, and the resistance of the mid track is94.20.不过昨晚尾盘时段弱势整理之后再下跌收低，使得今天相对会直接延续走弱。


Crude oil: {1Subpan93.40-93.80先空，94.20Fill in the gaps, defend94.80, Objective91.80-91.30.


Serve as an analyst and commentator for well-known financial channels such as "Golden Net" and "Globalforeign exchange》Professional contributors to several well-known financial forums such as "Huitong Net" and "Zhongjin Net", specializing in short, medium, and long term operations of gold, crude oil, and silver. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market. Suggestions are for reference only; This article is original by Dingsheng Jinshi, who carefully writes every analysis and conveys valuable investment concepts. If there is any similarity, it is purely plagiarism. Readers should be discerning and respect originality!