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goldMessage interpretation:
美国劳工部劳工统计局周三(8month24day)As of3Of12个月中,美国经济可能比之前估计的多创造了46.2万个工作岗位。这是劳工统计局对就业数据的年度“基准”修订的初估值。据报导,民间就业岗位增加是此次上调的主要原因,估计会增加57.1万个工作岗位。政府就业岗位可能会减少10.9万个。而美国亦于今年7月收复了公共卫生事件损失的所有工作岗位。这一报告或将成为美联储利率决议重要的参考依据。
According toCME美联储观察显示,美联储到9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is39.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is60.5%; reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is11.9%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is45.8%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is42.2%。这也意味着,当前市场仍有大部分人选择押注美联储继续采取鹰派态度来决定后续的货币政策。明日将开展杰克逊霍尔全球经济年会,若鲍威尔依旧维持鹰派决策,则或将再度使黄金承压回落。
Today's Focus:
14:00Germany Q2 not seasonally adjustedGDPAnnual rate final value
16:00Germany8monthIFOBusiness Prosperity Index
18:00britain8monthCBIRetail sales difference
19:30Announced by the European Central Bank7Monthly Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
20:30From the United States to8month20Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week
20:30US Q2 ActualGDPRevised value of annualized quarterly rate
Technical analysis of gold:
黄金已在这个位置震荡了两天,昨天周三黄金继续延续它的震荡,我们也是以震荡的思路在1753Short to1744收获,在1743又反手做多再次收获,区间拦截是对震荡最好的方法,基本可以上下全部通吃,但是从时间和指标上来看黄金已没有震荡的空间和震荡的时间,因为周五美联储主席鲍威尔将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔的全球央行年会上发表讲话,再加之日线5Rihe10日均线已经靠近,这是下破信号,现在的黄金是属于大跌之后的底部修复,虽然近期一直在震荡,但是这样的震荡并没有改变周线的空头趋势,周线一直处于空头状态,指南金师还是坚信震荡结束后向下突破的可能性更大,一旦下突破1730这波动力足以看1700附近,浪结果显示的大底也在1700附近,所以我们大趋势看跌短线看震荡。
黄金小区间我们重点关注1760-1730,如果反弹到1755-1760我们再次做空,止损后不在考虑1760多单拦截,这个位置一旦突破趋势将有所变动,目前我们在操作上下跌破位1740有机会我们也可以追空,上方1760突破也可以追多,突破任何一方都是震荡结束的信号,笔者预计黄金即将突破我们拭目以待。综上所述,今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹空为主,低多为辅,上方短期关注1760-1770Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1740-1730Frontline support.
Recommendations for Gold Operations
1:黄金反弹:1760-1765Short nearby, stop loss6Points, target1745-1750Nearby, break down and take a look1740-35First line (recommended for reference only!)
2:黄金回调:1740-1745Long nearby, stop loss6Points, target1755-1760Nearby, break down and take a look1765-70First line (recommended for reference only!)
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