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goldMessage interpretation:
Tuesday(8month23day)进入欧市盘中,市场情绪不佳,最新出炉的德国和法国数据走弱,加剧了能源担忧,欧元兑美元仍交投在平价下方,黄金在连跌6日后试图企稳,目前交投在1730美元上方。市场仍在等待杰克逊霍尔央行研讨会的到来。
金价周二小幅走高,前一交易日触及近一个月低点,受助于美元盘整,不过对美国进一步大幅升息的担忧挥之不去,令涨势受到抑制。
现货金上涨0.2%To per ounce1,738美元附近,周一触及7month27The lowest in recent days1,727.01USD.
美元兑其他货币在隔夜触及一个多月高点,目前高位盘整,使得持有其他货币的买家购买黄金的成本小幅降低。
美元新一波涨势的背后,与欧系货币的下挫有关。欧洲已经准备好迎接俄罗斯能源供应的新一轮中断。
欧盟基准天然气价格一夜之间飙升13%,达到历史最高水平,仅一个月时间就上涨了一倍,比过去10年平均水平高出14Times.
花旗银行的分析师警告说,如果能源价格不受控制,英国的通胀率可能会超过18%。
“欧洲严峻的能源形势表明,通胀尚未见顶,如果央行不采取进一步积极行动,高通胀将持续更长时间的风险仍然存在,”澳大利亚国民银行的经济主管Tapas Strickland说。“因此,美元兑不断下跌的欧元和英镑汇率接近几十年来的高点也就不足为奇了。”
“随着人们从风险较高的资产转向安全的美元,黄金可能仍面临压力,”Kotak Securities Ltd.大宗商品研究主管Ravindra RaoSay.
与此同时,美联储官员近期的强硬言论削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。现在的焦点转向本周晚些时候将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开的美联储研讨会。
里士满联储主席巴尔金上周说,美国央行官员在9month20Solstice21日的政策会议上决定加息幅度之前,还有“很多时间”。
从联邦基金futures价格来看,美联储9Monthly interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is56.5%。
荷兰国际集团(ING)表示,市场目前预计美联储主席鲍威尔周五在杰克逊霍尔全球央行行长年会上讲话时,美联储将保持强硬立场。
德国央行行长Joachim Nagel周末表示,尽管德国经济衰退的可能性越来越大,但欧洲央行仍必须继续升息,因为整个2023年通胀都将维持在令人不安的高位。
利率上升对不含利息的黄金造成压力。根据彭博社(Bloomberg)汇编的初步数据,投资者需求有所下降,ETF持有量连续第10周下降。
由于美联储四次加息,黄金已经回吐了今年的大部分升幅。今年迄今,黄金的表现基本上低于美国的通胀率。
全球最大的黄金交易所交易基金SPDR Gold Trust表示,周一其黄金持有量从上周五的989.01吨下降0.15%, to987.56Tons.
紫金矿业发言人周一表示,其哥伦比亚金矿正在恢复正常生产。此前,周围社区的人结束了一个多星期的道路封锁。
Today's Focus:
15:15France8Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
15:30Germany8Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
16:00eurozone8Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
16:30britain8Monthly manufacturing and service industryPMI
18:00britain8monthCBIIndustrial order difference
21:45U.S.A8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
21:45U.S.A8monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value
22:00U.S.A7Annualized total monthly sales of new homes
22:00U.S.A8Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Technical analysis of gold:
今日黄金早盘开盘于1746一线后小幅反弹到1749就一路阴跌,美盘前最低下跌至1730一线。今日下跌幅度稍微超出我们预期,白盘提前在1735-37一线多单在欧盘时段反弹到1738一线及时调仓出局。目前美盘再次走低,刷新白盘低点到1730下方,晚间还有进一步下跌可能,下方关键支撑在1720-22一线,这是晚间相对合适多单点位。
今天的行情和上周的行情非常类似,同样是开盘后基本无反弹一路走低,这种阴跌行情中一旦等反弹做空做空就很容易踏空。而在上周一我们就强调过阴跌行情中如果没有及时跟进空单,那么想要有比较合适的机会一定要等空头等到充分的释放。上周从1800depreciate to1772附近开启反弹,今日从1749附近下跌到前期关键支撑1720-22一线可能同样会开启反弹。
目前金价第一波下跌有在1727止跌的意思,空仓可以依托1727为低点在1731-32一线去接一次多单。综上所述,今日黄金操作思路上指南建议反弹高空为主,回调做多为辅,上方关注1742-1750USD resistance, follow below1710-1715Support.
Golden Operation Strategy:
1:黄金反弹1745-1750Short selling in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1730-1725Nearby, break down and take a look1720Frontline; (Suggested for reference only!)
2:黄金回调1730-1735Batch long nearby, stop loss6Points, target1740-1745Nearby, break down and take a look1750Frontline; (Suggested for reference only!)
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