指南金师：今日黄金走势分析，黄金暗弱下方仍有跌幅空间

Market Review:


InternationalgoldThursday(8month18day)Volatile closing price1761.99dollar/Ounces, highest price1772.23dollar/Ounces, lowest price1757.59dollar/Ounces, closing price1759.62dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Thursday7月咨商会领先指标月率录得-0.4%Higher than market expectations-0.5%, previous value is-0.8%； U.S.A7Annualized total sales of completed houses481万户，低于市场预期489Ten thousand households.


Commentary states that the United States7月谘商会领先指标月率第5个月下降，表明近期经济衰退风险正在上升，消费者的悲观情绪和股市波动，以及劳动力市场、住房建设和制造业新订单的放缓，都表明经济疲弱将加剧，并在美国经济中更广泛地蔓延开来。世界大型企业联合会预计，美国经济在第三季度预计不会扩张，可能在今年底或2023年初陷入短暂但温和的衰退。


Commentary states that the United States7月份成屋销售连续第6个月下降，这一最新迹象表明，借贷成本高企和需求减弱正在推动房地产市场快速下滑。美国全国地产经纪商协会数据显示，7月份合同成交年率下降5.9%, to481万份，为2020year5The lowest level since the beginning of the month.1月份以来，美国成屋销售下降了近26%, creating1999年以来最大的6个月跌幅，凸显出住房市场正因抵押贷款利率和价格上涨而变得不稳。该行业还在经历建设放缓，越来越多的买家正在放弃交易。需求减弱导致库存回升，这可能有助于在未来几个月给房价降温。


Thursday's announcement from the United States to8month13Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week2510000 people, lower than market expectations26.5Ten thousand people; United States8月费城联储制造业指数录得6.2Higher than market expectations-5；


Commentary states that the United States8月费城联储制造业指数意外增长，为三个月来首次，但对未来的展望依然疲弱。费城联邦储备银行周四公布的数据显示，制造业当前评估指数从-12.3Ascend to6.2，高于所有经济学家的预估。该指数高于零表明经济活动增长，预期为录得-5。不过衡量未来6个月景气度的指标连续第三个月低于零。订单指标增长约20点至负的5.1，表明订单量虽然仍在减少，但下降速度已经有所放缓。交货时间缩短，预示供应链正在正常化。


　　评论称，美国初请失业金人数三周以来首次下降。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至8month13日当周，首次申请失业救济人数减少2000People, to25万人。初请失业金人数下降表明劳动力需求依然健康，因企业试图在劳动力短缺持续的情况下吸引和留住员工。不过，由于经济形势不明朗，几家雇主一直在裁员或冻结招聘。随着美联储采取激进的加息措施，这种情况可能会继续下去。


　　美联储官员戴丽表示，需要在收紧政策幅度不足和过度之间取得平衡。不希望过度收紧政策，然后发现经济出现不必要的过度收紧。全球经济增长放缓将拖累美国经济增长。如果观察一下消费者的支出情况，以及大量就业情况，我不认为我们正处于自我实现的衰退预言模式。美国劳动力市场强劲，但通胀太高。美联储可能需要更高的利率，这取决于数据。9Monthly interest rate hike50or75个基点是合理的。年底前利率需要略高于3%。


　　美联储官员卡什卡利表示，目前不认为美国经济处于衰退。随着我们继续加息，这将对经济踩刹车，使衰退更有可能发生。如果美国超出了其债务能力，长期利率和长期通胀预期将会高得多。经济的总体供应潜力可能比我们想象的要低。认为三分之一的通胀是由国内因素导致的，包括财政因素。经济基本面强劲。看到供应链有所改善的证据。迫切需要降低通胀。


　　美联储官员布拉德表示，还没有准备好认为美国经济已经度过了通胀飙升中最严重的阶段。倾向于9Monthly interest rate increase75Basis points.


　　美联储官员乔治表示，美国劳动力市场紧张的状况需要一段时间来缓解，需求仍处在一个相对较高的水平。预计美国经济增长将持续放缓，通胀预期看起来得到了充分锚定。美国的需求和供给之间仍然存在“相当严重的不平衡”。上个月的通胀数字“令人鼓舞”，但还不是胜利的时候。到目前为止，核心通胀的缓解程度“很难令人宽慰”。尽管通胀可能正在缓和，但仍处于高位。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day3.18Tons, current position is985.83Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is60.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is39.5%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is32.3%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is49.3%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is18.4%。


Today's Focus:


　　14:00Germany7monthPPIMonthly rate


　　14:00britain7Monthly retail sales rate after quarterly adjustment


　　16:00eurozone6Monthly adjusted current account


　　20:30Canada6Monthly retail sales rate


Technical analysis of gold:


　　昨日金价整体技术面延续空头压制震荡下行格局，亚欧盘价格受阻力1767一线小幅回落走跌，午后向下试探企稳1760关口探底回升破高，并在美盘前一度加速冲高突破1770关口横盘震荡，晚间小幅冲高承压前一日开跌口1772一线再度回落下行破底，并在美盘价格迎来弱势回落收盘于1758关口，日k线报收冲高回落吊颈中阴，整体价格继续呈现空头压制回落破底走势，日图最终收出一根上影线较长的小星阴线。从当前盘面来看，趋势空没有任何改变，均线系统空头排列，短期均线5and10日死叉向下，价格运行于20天均线下方，价格有进一步加速探底过程，裸K正反系统仍然提示空头，而四维图表日图至上线压制下行，目前运行于指引线下方，昨天也破了中轨，后市继续向下线运行；


　　四小时价格昨天压制以中轨，目前已经到达加速线，从近期的运行来看，四小时中阳修正，中阴下破，迷惑性很大，所以很都时候反复震荡就容易被四小时诱导，这与前两天的油的运行有点像，四小时大幅拉升，如果你认为是多等回落多一定是坑，黄金也一样，四小时看似转折，实际是给了最好的空点，因此趋势的重要性就来了，说的通俗点就是日图空头不止，四小时及以下周期仍何反弹都是空的机会，所以只需要盯着日图就可以，而当下来看日图破中轨，压制就在这里，而空档与小时图的上线压制共振，而下方仍然是关注加速线的下破，如果下破就锁定周线下方和日图下线，给这里再尝试多，今日上方压力关注昨日美盘小时线开跌口1768-1770区域，日内反抽依托此位置继续主空再看回落，下方目标位依旧关注破底，近期多空强弱分水岭1772一线，日线级别收盘未站稳此位置之前，任何反弹都是做空机会，多单需谨慎，综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方关注1770-1773USD resistance, follow below1750-1745Support.


Suggestions for Gold Operations:


　　1：黄金反弹1767-1770Short selling in batches nearby, stop loss5Points, target1760-1755Nearby, break down and take a look1750Frontline; (Suggested for reference only!)


　　2：黄金回调1745-1750Batch long nearby, stop loss5Points, target1760-1765Nearby, break down and take a look1770Frontline; (Suggested for reference only!)


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