Guide Metallographer:8.18今日黄金走势分析，黄金保持震荡偏空思路

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Yesterday20:30美国方面公布了市场关注的恐怖数据美国7月零售销售，结果该数据表现低于预期利多黄金,黄金短线上涨9美金，不过同时公布的核心零售销售超预期，随后黄金冲高承压回落。


In terms of data, the United States7月零售销售月率前值1%, expected0.1%，实际公布0%。 U.S.A7月核心零售销售月率前值1%, expected-0.1%，实际公布0.4%。美国零售数据被市场看重，是因为美国大约70%的经济增长是靠消费拉动的，而零售销售更是占了消费中的四成，所以零售销售数据对于判定美国经济现状和前景具有重要的指导作用。总结来看，7月零售销售：美国上月零售销售几乎没有变化，能源和汽车销售量下降，掩盖了其他类别零售的较好表现。目前普遍的持续高通胀侵蚀着工人工资，对未来几个月消费构成压力。


　　凌晨美联储公布的七月会议纪要显示，加息程度取决于未来经济数据，但也承认过度加息的风险，市场情绪预期加息放缓，黄金短线上行，但是纪要反复提及对通胀严肃态度，认为高通胀不可接受，重申要继续加息，并认为强劲的货币政策可能会让经济放缓，但会坚持遏制通胀，直到高通胀明显加快回落，明显偏鹰派态度令黄金承压继续阴跌下行。当下物价水平仍处于绝对高位，海外能源依然严峻，4季度能源成本有可能再度上行拉升大宗商品的可能。因此，再美联储继续加息背景下，利率与美元齐升态势下，黄金仍承压。


Today's Focus:


　　09:30Australia7Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment


　　14:00Switzerland7Monthly trade account


　　17:00eurozone7monthCPIAnnual rate final value and monthly rate


　　20:30From the United States to8month13Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A8Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index


　　22:00U.S.A7Annualized total monthly housing sales


　　22:00U.S.A7Monthly leading indicator monthly rate of the Chamber of Commerce


The next day01:20Federal Reserve George delivers a speech on the outlook for the US economy


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold continued its decline and closed lower yesterday, with its highest rebound at1782.30Under pressure on the first line, hold on to the neck line of the low mouth, and the pressure will fall again to break through the low, breaking through1765to1759.80At a low level, the daily line touched the middle track of Bollinger Road and closed nearby. Today we still need to test the gains and losses of the medium track, and the current pace of the daily line is slightly slow and stagnant. Accompanied by a three consecutive negative pullback, it broke the previous weak upward pattern, but the space for pullback seems not too large, and it will be horizontal consolidation for a longer time.


　　4Houtu walked out of the head and shoulder top falling shape, falling below1783Continuously descending after the neckline. At present, a small-scale two wave decline has also been constructed, relying on1807Make one wave high point, while the small period two wave high points are1786.70.This is also the reason why we have been bearish below this level this week, as the critical point has not recovered and the short-term trend remains bearish. The hour chart shows a step like oscillation decline, but the pace is relatively slow. The step decline is characterized by a chronic oscillation. After sorting out the hour chart at the beginning of the week, the moving average indicator has turned downward, and the short-term thinking for the day relies on it1783Make a defensive rebound and bear short first, breaking the low point in the hourly chart1770-1772Forming resistance, today's upward pressure focuses on yesterday's US market opening and closing1773-1772Nearby, rely on this position to suppress the main air and continue to see the fall. The target position below is still focused on breaking the bottom, and the recent divide between the strength and weakness of the long air1780At the checkpoint, before the daily level closes at this position, any rebound is a short selling opportunity. It is important to be cautious when placing multiple orders. In summary, today's gold operation guidelines suggest that the rebound should be mainly high altitude, with a pullback as a supplement. Pay attention to the above1770-1773USD resistance, follow below1754-1750Support.


　　8.18Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1770-1773Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1760-1755Nearby, break down and take a look1750frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1752-1754Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1760-1765Nearby, break down and take a look1770frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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