Guide Metallographer:8.18Today's gold trend analysis, the market is expected to continue to raise interest rates significantly

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(8month17day)Volatile closing price1774.15dollar/Ounces, highest price1782.15dollar/Ounces, lowest price1761.16dollar/Ounces, closing price1761.97dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Wednesday's announcement of the United States7Monthly retail sales rate recorded0%, lower than market expectations0.1%, previous value is1.00%。


Commentary states that retail sales in the United States remained almost unchanged last month, with fuel and car prices falling, masking the better performance of other categories of retail. For many Americans, the significant drop in gasoline prices has boosted popularity and may release cash for use elsewhere. Nevertheless, widespread and persistent high inflation is eroding workers' wages, forcing many to rely on credit cards and savings to make a living. This will pose persistent pressure on the resilience of consumers in the coming months.


The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released early Thursday showed that the pace of interest rate hikes will slow down at some point. The committee members believe that continuous interest rate hikes are appropriate. The committee members pointed out that recent data on inflation expectations is related to2%The long-term expectations are consistent. Participants unanimously agreed that there is "almost no evidence" to suggest that inflationary pressures are weakening and it will take a considerable amount of time to resolve the issue. The strong performance of the labor market indicates that economic activity is weaker than the weak second quarterGDPThe data suggests a stronger strength, which enhancesGDPThe possibility of upward correction of data.


Federal Reserve Director Bauman stated that there are expected to be more signs of recovery in employment in the leisure and hotel industries. The prospect of labor supply is uncertain. The labor market will continue to perform strongly.


Commentary suggests that although the market reaction seems to interpret the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting as dovish, it is uncertain whether this understanding is correct. It can be affirmed that the Federal Reserve reiterated its statement that the pace of tightening should be slowed down in the future, and talked about the risk of excessive tightening. But one thing to note is that the economic growth momentum is quite weak, and the growth rate in the second half of the year will be lower than the trend level. However, for now, the Federal Reserve seems to be indifferent to these issues. Although the uncertainty of economic data does make excessive tightening a risk, if the public does not recognize the Federal Reserve's determination to tighten policy appropriately, then high inflation may be deeply ingrained. In other words, the Fed's downplaying of its commitment to tightening monetary policy precisely indicates that it is more likely to do the fight against inflation to the end. United States7The monthly retail sales data was basically better than expected, and the yield curve of US treasury bond bonds was flat. These data, especially stronger control group data, may be sufficient to improveGDPexpect.


Analysis suggests that recent inflation index swaps suggest that the market currently expects8monthCPIYoY will further decrease, from8.5%lower8.1%Left and right. This is largely driven by the decline in gasoline prices.8Since the beginning of the month, gasoline prices have been relatively low7The month has decreased by about6%. Gasoline has an impact onCPIThe contribution of annual rate is expected to decrease by approximately0.4%。


Goldman Sachs analysis shows that if an Iran nuclear agreement is reached, Iran will need approximately12To comprehensively increase oil production within a period of months. The bank estimates that Iran will reduce its daily production from the current270Increase to 10000 barrels370Ten thousand barrels. Exports may take several months to recover. If there were no sanctions, Iran could export approximately200Ten thousand barrels of oil.


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day3.19Tons, current position is989.01Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is64.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is35.5%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is49.6%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is42.2%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is8.2%。


Today's Focus:


　　09:30Australia7Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment


　　14:00Switzerland7Monthly trade account


　　17:00eurozone7monthCPIAnnual rate final value and monthly rate


　　20:30From the United States to8month13Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A8Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index


　　22:00U.S.A7Annualized total monthly housing sales


　　22:00U.S.A7Monthly leading indicator monthly rate of the Chamber of Commerce


The next day01:20Federal Reserve George delivers a speech on the outlook for the US economy


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold continued its decline and closed lower yesterday, with its highest rebound at1782.30Under pressure on the first line, hold on to the neck line of the low mouth, and the pressure will fall again to break through the low, breaking through1765to1759.80At a low level, the daily line touched the middle track of Bollinger Road and closed nearby. Today we still need to test the gains and losses of the medium track, and the current pace of the daily line is slightly slow and stagnant. Accompanied by a three consecutive negative pullback, it broke the previous weak upward pattern, but the space for pullback seems not too large, and it will be horizontal consolidation for a longer time.


　　4Houtu walked out of the head and shoulder top falling shape, falling below1783Continuously descending after the neckline. At present, a small-scale two wave decline has also been constructed, relying on1807Make one wave high point, while the small period two wave high points are1786.70.This is also the reason why we have been bearish below this level this week, as the critical point has not recovered and the short-term trend remains bearish. The hour chart shows a step like oscillation decline, but the pace is relatively slow. The step decline is characterized by a chronic oscillation. After sorting out the hour chart at the beginning of the week, the moving average indicator has turned downward, and the short-term thinking for the day relies on it1783Make a defensive rebound and bear short first, breaking the low point in the hourly chart1770-1772Forming resistance, today's upward pressure focuses on yesterday's US market opening and closing1773-1772Nearby, rely on this position to suppress the main air and continue to see the fall. The target position below is still focused on breaking the bottom, and the recent divide between the strength and weakness of the long air1780At the checkpoint, before the daily level closes at this position, any rebound is a short selling opportunity. It is important to be cautious when placing multiple orders. In summary, today's gold operation guidelines suggest that the rebound should be mainly high altitude, with a pullback as a supplement. Pay attention to the above1770-1773USD resistance, follow below1754-1750Support.


　　8.18Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1770-1773Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1760-1755Nearby, break down and take a look1750frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1752-1754Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1760-1765Nearby, break down and take a look1770frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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