Guide Metallographer:8.18今日黄金走势分析，会议纪要鹰派概率较大

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Wednesday(8month17day)，国际金价冲高回落，距离隔夜创下的逾一周低位1771.28dollar/盎司不远。投资者等待即将公布的美联储7月政策会议纪要，以期从中找寻美联储未来加息线索。美联储鹰派姿态利空金价。


　　DailyFXforeign exchangeStrategistIlya Spivak表示：“近期的重点是美联储7月政策会议纪要即将在8月末召开的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会，它们将为美联储9月政策会议奠定基调。如果美联储对加息前景看法变得更加鹰派，那么将对黄金产生一定的负面影响。”


Federal Reserve7月会议纪要将在北京时间周四(8month18day)2:00公布。自今年3月启动加息以来，美联储已累计加息225个基点并且最近连续两次加息75个基点，以抑制逾40年未见的高通胀。


　　交易员预计，美联储在9月份的下次会议上至少加息50个基点，但连续第三次加息75Less than a basis point probability50%。尽管黄金被视为通胀对冲工具，但美国利率上升削弱了非孳息资产黄金的吸引力。


　　尽管全球最大经济体美国的通胀压力在7月份出现缓和迹象，但美联储官员对加息前景仍保持强硬态度，这导致金价近期遇阻1800美元重要心里关口。全球最大的黄金上市交易基金SPDR Gold Trust持仓量降至1月份以来最低水平992.20Tons.


　　道明证券经济学家表示：“算法趋势追随者再次加大压力抛售10年期美债可能性非常小，这将进一步削弱人们的购金欲望，空头回补门槛将进一步上升。考虑到有迹象显示黄金空头正在潜伏，黄金价格很脆弱。”


　　加拿大丰业银行经济学家认为，美元牛市周期看起来非常漫长，预计美元在未来几个月仍将保持坚挺。尽管美国经济陷入了“技术性衰退”，但随着美联储进一步收紧货币政策，投资者继续认为没有其他可行的货币替代美元。


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日小阴K线窄幅震荡，反弹1783附近承压之后惯性下探至1771.3一带陷入震荡，空间稍有收敛，结构处于调整当中但空间延续性不足，加上均线指标凌乱发散，短期仍处于多空抉择。日线稍有收跌。但空间不算大，暂时还是当作震荡对待，消息方面：投资在等待美联储周四凌晨02：00publish7月货币政策会议记录。以从中寻找加息方向。日线目前布林道中轨的支撑上移至1763附近。今日留意技术形态能否破位并收在低位，来决定本周接下来两个交易日的周线收盘位置。


　　4小时图目前短线稍有弱势，虽然昨日没有大幅度延续下跌，但始终维持在布林道中轨以及前一日尾盘的反弹高点1786下方承压，单从4小时和小时图来看，短线弱势行情中不过尾盘高点，那么短线暂时先维持在1786之下看空即可，突破再调整思路，就像周初1783的颈线防守一样，破位了就要及时调整思路，目前也是一样，做空的临界点就在1786.不破看空，突破看多。1小时图维持在破低点之下的弱势整理。反复试探低点，今日可能要先测试日线中轨1765-1763附近的支撑，短线操作依旧维持在1780-1783之间先行看空，昨日的空单底单持有不变，损位放在1786上方一点即可。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方关注1780-1783USD resistance, follow below1754-1760Support.


　　8.18Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1781-1783Short 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1770-1765Nearby, break down and take a look1755frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1754-1756Short two tenths of positions in batches nearby, stop loss5Points, target1765-1770Nearby, break down and take a look1775frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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