Guide Metallographer:8.17今日黄金走势分析，黄金延续跌势下看1770

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Tuesday(8month16day)，因美元指数持坚，现货黄金延续跌势，美联储或继续通过激进提高借贷成本来遏制高通胀，但这同时也加剧了经济衰退担忧。尽管黄金被视为通胀对冲工具，但美国利率上升削弱了黄金的吸引力。


　　周二公布的数据显示，美国7Annual record of total monthly construction of new houses144.6Ten thousand households, for2021year2New low since the beginning of the month.7月新屋开工率略有下降，但前值略微向上修正。由于住宅投资(以及住房活动)持续降温，美国7月新屋开工年化月率录得-9.6%，降幅超过预期。话虽如此，6月份的数据被向上修正，营建许可数据也比预期略高，所以这个数据并没有看起来那么糟糕。无论如何，预计住宅投资将对当前季度的经济增长构成不利影响，消费和资本支出将成为推动季度GDP恢复扩张的因素，前提是这一因素成为现实。


　　美联储将在周三(8month17day)publish7月会议纪要，这将对美元近期价格走势产生关键影响，但在此之前，市场能否呈现有意义的走势似乎难以捉摸。


　　美联储官员：不惜抑制经济增长


　　此前公布的数据显示，美国7Monthly consumer and producer prices have cooled, and import prices have fallen for the first time in seven months. The overall inflation of the US economy seems to have peaked, which has sparked the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve to loosen expectations. The gold price is far away from the record set last week7month5New high in recent days1807.72dollar/ounce.


　　但里士满联储主席巴尔金8month12日表示：“我希望看到通胀在一段时间内得到控制。在此之前，我认为我们将不惜抑制经济增长也要加息。”巴尔金表示，他希望看到通胀在美联储停止加息前保持在2％目标附近“一段时间内”。


　　巴尔金说，他希望看到“真实”的借贷成本——减去通胀和通胀预期后——大于零。“我认为我们正处于将实际利率推向正值区域的边缘，我们需要将其维持在该区域，而且我们需要遵循一些利率路径预期。”


　　过去一年多以来，物价持续飙升让美联储官员措手不及。即使7There are preliminary signs that inflation may have peaked in the month, but7Consumer prices still surged year-on-year in the month8.5％，核心通胀也远高于2％的目标。


　　丹斯克银行首席foreign exchangeStrategistJensNarvigPedersen表示：“尽管(7month)Inflation has decreased, but it is still too early for the Federal Reserve to release its brakes He maintains a bullish view of the US dollar.


　　美联储会调整政策步伐？


　　尽管美联储官员表示，现在宣布抗通胀取得胜利还为时过早，但近期的数据确实减轻了美联储在9月政策会议上再次大幅加息75个基点的压力。利率futures期货交易员目前预计，美联储9月会议上至少加息50个基点，但连续第三次加息75Less than a basis point probability50%。


　　德国商业银行经济学家预计，美国明年将陷入衰退，但由于美国经济总体仍保持强劲，美元还将保持强势。“距离美联储开始真正担心美国经济前景仍有很长一段时间。美国经济到底会走弱到何种程度不确定性仍然很高。因此，现在就将衰退计入美元汇率似乎还为时过早。”


Technical analysis of gold:


How does gold fluctuate? It hasn't exceeded the limit in the past week1798reach1805Short selling in the region. Yesterday, gold fluctuated and fell all the way since the opening, indicating that the bearish trend is still evident, which means1800Limited upside space, ready to decline at any time30reach40The US dollar range is very easy. Last week, we attacked the station in the middle of the night1800Regional, but there was no correlation with Monday's rise, indicating a clear bullish trend, with consecutive breakdowns yesterday5Rihe10The daily moving average indicates a decline in upward momentum and downward pressure1788reach1795Area.


Looking back at the market last week, although gold surged, most of the time it was1798reach1805区域压力下，冲高回落走势，指南金师始终坚持高空昨日又是近30The trend of the US dollar adjustment is familiar to the market. Recently, there has been a surge in prices, with raids in the early hours of the night. The next day, warm water is turned on to cook frogs, and the surge has dropped,1787Fall to1753Area, followed by1794Fall to1765Area, rear1808Fall to1783Regions, all close30The US dollar fell and adjusted, so yesterday1802reach1772Also30USD range. Only a break1765Only then can we open up the downward space.


Yesterday was international againETFThe main force is reducing its holdings, looking at what international giants are doing in the gold rebound7After the monthly interest rate hike rebounded, the main force has been to reduce holdings every time it rebounded, only once7month29Daily breakthrough1750Increase your holdings a bit, but then continue to decrease your holdings, which indicates that2070Falling continuously for six months to1680near400After the US dollar range, it is not optimistic about the future upward trend to push up and reduce holdings. It is expected that there will be lower positions to buy at the bottom and increase holdings in the future. We must take a warning from this high selling and low buying, and a slight amplification of the bearish situation can lead to a flash crash.


Currently, gold does not have a bullish market foundation, and both daily and monthly trading lines are bearish control. Simple moving averages are temporarily staggered without long positions, and even key pressure positions have not broken. Why is a bull market? Moreover, even if the bull market rises and rebounds in the first wave120The US dollar range also requires a second round of retesting to solidify the bottom support, so that we can go further in the later stage and only reach those who are destined. That's all I've said to tell you at this moment1800Don't chase too much on the market, there's not much room for growth, and there's always room for decline80reach100US dollars, every time we change the price, we always add a space to drive in. The flight attendant drives until nothing grows. If you still hesitate, we can only haha! Last week, I gave you expectations.


The time-sharing chart has actually deviated from the short selling signal,1790reach1798Continuous deviation in the region indicates that the1685I have basically completed the five steps of doing long signals all the way, and yesterday, I went down to the ground and broke the level for a day. I sorted it out horizontally for a week1784Region, so the top to bottom transition here is still a short space region, with concentrated pressure during time sharing1788reach1795Region, which means that as long as1795The consolidation of the lower horizontal market is all due to bearish control of the rebound market, with a target of two dips and one dip1765reach1750Since the market is adjusting under critical pressure, it's good for you to make a rebound and short the trend.


Gold rebound1784-88One line empty, loss release1793, Objective1770-65。


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