指南金师：今日黄金走势分析，黄金继续破底，弱势反弹空

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Tuesday(8month16day)，国际金价持稳，因美元指数在前两个交易日大涨后展开调整。但美联储激进加息前景仍利空金价，市场关注即将公布的美国零售数据和美联储会议纪要，料给金价带来新的方向。


　　美联储官员保持鹰派基调，并暗示今年进一步加息以抑制高通胀，美指前两个交易日累计大涨逾1.2%。美元走强让美元计价大宗商品对非美元持有者变得更加昂贵。


　　德国商业银行经济学家预计，美国明年将陷入衰退。然而，由于美国经济总体仍保持强劲，美元也将保持强势。“距离美联储开始真正担心美国经济前景仍有很长一段时间。美国经济到底会走弱到何种程度不确定性仍然很高。因此，现在就将衰退计入美元汇率似乎还为时过早。””


　　该机构经济学家还指出：“定于明天公布的零售销售数据，应该会证实美国经济目前依然强劲。因此，只要目前还没有明显的经济放缓迹象，美联储积极行动预期就应该会对美元构成支撑。”


　　瑞银全球财富管理首席经济学家Paul Donovan称，上周公布的美国通胀数据让金融市场对美联储下一步政策举措感到不确定。这种不确定性(以及相关的风险溢价)可能与美联储6月超预期加息有关。考虑到数据缺陷和波动性，消费者价格通胀地位提升增加了不确定性。美联储抛弃前瞻指引意味着，市场可以在没有美联储有效约束的情况下随心所欲地设定预期。


　　美联储加息前景和宏观面风险趋势将对金价产生巨大影响。本周主要事件风险为周三(8month17day)公布的美国零售数据和美联储会议纪要，料暗示美联储未来政策路径，并给金价带来新的方向。


Today's Focus:


　　09:30澳洲联储公布货币政策会议纪要


　　14:00britain6Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate


　　14:00britain7Monthly unemployment rate


　　14:00britain7Number of applicants for monthly unemployment benefits


　　17:00Germany8monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　17:00eurozone8monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　17:00eurozone6Monthly adjusted trade account


　　20:30Canada7monthCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A7Annualized total monthly construction of new houses


　　20:30U.S.A7Total monthly construction permits


　　21:15U.S.A7Monthly industrial output rate


Technical analysis of gold:


How does gold fluctuate? It hasn't exceeded the limit in the past week1798reach1805Short selling in the region. Yesterday, gold fluctuated and fell all the way since the opening, indicating that the bearish trend is still evident, which means1800Limited upside space, ready to decline at any time30reach40The US dollar range is very easy. Last week, we attacked the station in the middle of the night1800Regional, but there was no correlation with Monday's rise, indicating a clear bullish trend, with consecutive breakdowns yesterday5Rihe10The daily moving average indicates a decline in upward momentum and downward pressure1788reach1795Area.


Looking back at the market last week, although gold surged, most of the time it was1798reach1805区域压力下，冲高回落走势，指南金师始终坚持高空昨日又是近30The trend of the US dollar adjustment is familiar to the market. Recently, there has been a surge in prices, with raids in the early hours of the night. The next day, warm water is turned on to cook frogs, and the surge has dropped,1787Fall to1753Area, followed by1794Fall to1765Area, rear1808Fall to1783Regions, all close30The US dollar fell and adjusted, so yesterday1802reach1772Also30USD range. Only a break1765Only then can we open up the downward space.


Yesterday was international againETFThe main force is reducing its holdings, looking at what international giants are doing in the gold rebound7After the monthly interest rate hike rebounded, the main force has been to reduce holdings every time it rebounded, only once7month29Daily breakthrough1750Increase your holdings a bit, but then continue to decrease your holdings, which indicates that2070Falling continuously for six months to1680near400After the US dollar range, it is not optimistic about the future upward trend to push up and reduce holdings. It is expected that there will be lower positions to buy at the bottom and increase holdings in the future. We must take a warning from this high selling and low buying, and a slight amplification of the bearish situation can lead to a flash crash.


Currently, gold does not have a bullish market foundation, and both daily and monthly trading lines are bearish control. Simple moving averages are temporarily staggered without long positions, and even key pressure positions have not broken. Why is a bull market? Moreover, even if the bull market rises and rebounds in the first wave120The US dollar range also requires a second round of retesting to solidify the bottom support, so that we can go further in the later stage and only reach those who are destined. That's all I've said to tell you at this moment1800Don't chase too much on the market, there's not much room for growth, and there's always room for decline80reach100US dollars, every time we change the price, we always add a space to drive in. The flight attendant drives until nothing grows. If you still hesitate, we can only haha! Last week, I gave you expectations.


The time-sharing chart has actually deviated from the short selling signal,1790reach1798Continuous deviation in the region indicates that the1685I have basically completed the five steps of doing long signals all the way, and yesterday, I went down to the ground and broke the level for a day. I sorted it out horizontally for a week1784Region, so the top to bottom transition here is still a short space region, with concentrated pressure during time sharing1788reach1795Region, which means that as long as1795The consolidation of the lower horizontal market is all due to bearish control of the rebound market, with a target of two dips and one dip1765reach1750Since the market is adjusting under critical pressure, it's good for you to make a rebound and short the trend.


Gold rebound1784-88One line empty, loss release1793, Objective1770-65。


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