Guide Metallographer:8.12今日黄金走势分析，金价周期性还在走震荡...

Market Review:


InternationalgoldThursday(8month11day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price1797.83dollar/Ounces, highest price1799.89dollar/Ounces, lowest price1783.35dollar/Ounces, closing price1790.24dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


Thursday's announcement from the United States to8month6Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week26.210000 people, lower than market expectations26.310000 people, the former value is2610000 people.


　　评论称，美国初请失业金人数连续第二周上升，接近去年11The highest level since the beginning of the month indicates that the labor market continues to slow down. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits has been increasing as more and more companies, especially in the technology industry, announce layoffs and freeze hiring due to economic uncertainty. With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, the demand for labor may decrease, but so far, in the face of widespread labor shortages, employers have mostly been working hard to retain existing employees.


United States7monthPPIMonthly rate recorded-0.5%, lower than market expectations0.2%, previous value is1.1%。


　　评论称，衡量美国生产者价格的一项关键指标7月份意外出现两年多来的首次下滑，这在很大程度上反映了能源成本的下降，并表明通胀压力出现了可喜的缓和。美国劳工部数据显示，PPIData decrease compared to last month0.5%, up from the same period last year9.8%. Excluding volatile food and energy components, the so-called corePPIrelatively6Monthly increase0.2%, up from the same period last year7.6%。这两个数字都低于预期。


　　美联储官员戴丽表示，通胀数据显示出一些改善，但这不是胜利。加息幅度不取决于某一个数据点。9Monthly interest rate hike50个基点是基线情景。不想被通胀改善所蒙骗。对于9月份是否需要加息75个基点，我持开放态度。不想颠覆劳动力市场，所以加息50个基点是合理的。距离经济衰退的风险还有很长的路。专注于实现平稳过渡，避免经济衰退。预计今年年底前政策利率将达到3.4%。预计明年的政策将更加收紧，以抑制通胀。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is61.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is38.5%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is18.7%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is54.5%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is26.8%。


Today's Focus:


　　13:30France Q2ILOunemployment rate


　　14:00UK Q2GDPAnnual rate correction value


　　14:00britain6Three months in a monthGDPMonthly rate


　　14:00britain6Monthly manufacturing output rate


　　14:00britain6Commodity Trade Account after Monthly Adjustment


　　14:00britain6Monthly industrial output rate


　　14:45France7monthCPIMonthly rate


　　17:00eurozone6Monthly industrial output rate


　　20:30U.S.A7Monthly Import Price Index Monthly Rate


　　22:00U.S.A8Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index


Technical analysis of gold:


Overnight BeautyCPIThe slowdown in data has weakened market expectations for a strong interest rate hike in the US dollar, and the US dollar has fallen. However, gold has not shown a significant rebound, and the upward pressure is measured to1807/8The first line immediately stopped, and then chose to fall back due to the rebound of the US dollar and the pressure of its own technical structure, falling back to1790Nearby oscillation, there is an overcast star line with an upward shadow in the vicinity of the daily line. On the hourly chart, the expected state of gold following the technological trend overnight is more obvious,CPIShort term increase after data, breaking through1800However, it is under pressure at the trend line, and thus gold has entered an end state in both short-term and ultra short-term structures, facing pressure repair. Subsequently, the market has also undergone downward adjustments as expected, and the current market has fallen back to1790Below, trading at1785Nearby. The short-term trend is also moving towards further adjustment.


You can follow above the daily gold1795Nearby short term pressure, as long as the gold market does not return to this level, the overall technical bias of the gold market is still obvious. If there is no interference from the fundamentals, even if the market is on this level1795Above, there is also1800Suppression, as long as one does not stand above this position, there are still conditions to adjust. Focus on trend line support for the day below1785Nearby, but the main support may fall on1778Nearby, this position is also10Support near the daily line, once this position is lost, it can be seen again in the later golden period1770Nearby retreat is expected, and the expected level of adjustment will not be significant, so the downward route may not be as smooth. In the short term, due to the expected technical pullback in the gold market, the main focus is on continuing to hold short and choosing high or short positions. Currently, before the demand for daily level deviation adjustment is fully released, many orders are temporarily not considered for participation.


Overnight already1800The empty order above is currently available in the1780-1785Reduce positions or stop profits, keep some orders for review1770Next, we will do a stop profit. Here, we must do a stop profit for empty orders. Currently, the market is only adjusting to the previous gains, and if there is a decline, we also need to rebound. In summary, today's gold operation guidelines suggest that bullish rebounds should be the main focus, while bearish pullbacks should be the secondary focus, with short-term attention from above1800-1802Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1770-1775Frontline support.


Empty order strategy:


Gold rebound:1797-1800Short selling in batches nearby, stop loss5Points, target1790-1780Nearby, break down and take a look1775-1770First line (recommended for reference only!)


Multiple order strategy:


Gold Callback:1783-1778Batch long nearby, stop loss5Points, target1790-1793Nearby, break down and take a look1798-1803First line (recommended for reference only!)


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