Guide Metallographer:8.11Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold will inevitably decline due to repeated bullishness

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Wednesday(08month10day)International gold price in the United States7monthCPIAnnual rate below expectations, spot gold skyrocketing13USD to1803.19dollar/ounce. There are currently four driving factors for inflation. Commodity prices are disappearing; Supply chain issues are also disappearing. But there are still housing and labor markets left, which will be reflected in the inflation of the service industry. Service sector inflation remains a problem, caused by housing and labor shortages, and this situation will not disappear in the short term until the Federal Reserve manages to disrupt demand, which has not yet happened


　　10The annual breakeven rate is currently2.50%, lower than earlier this year3.07%The high point of. This means that market participants now anticipate the future10The annual average inflation rate for the year is2.50%。 He said,7monthCPIIt may be lower than expected. He said, "There are too many uncertain factors for us to have a particularly strong view. We can only say that this is consistent with the peak of inflation and will be traded with it." The US unemployment rate has slightly decreased3.5%, creating2020year2New low since the beginning of the month. Monthly increase in average hourly wage0.5%, year-on-year growth5.2%。 Previously, the Bank of England announced a rate hike50Bps to1.75%, from1995The largest interest rate hike since the beginning of the year, also known as2008year12The highest interest rate since the beginning of the month. Although at the Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate increase75After meeting market expectations with a basis point landing, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made another "dove like" statement at a press conference that another significant rate hike depends on data, and slowing down the pace of rate hikes at a certain point in time may be appropriate. But in reality, inflation in the United States is still high and unabated. Compared to concerns about economic recession, the Federal Reserve clearly prioritizes combating inflation as the primary low point, although in the second quarter of the United StatesGDPAnnualized month on month shrinkage0.9%Despite falling into contraction for the second consecutive quarter and significantly lowering economic growth expectations, Federal Reserve officials have recently made more hawkish remarks compared to the previous press conference after the interest rate meeting. Federal Reserve Daley stated that the Fed's fight against inflation is "far from complete". The Federal Reserve's Meister also stated that,9The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in the month75A basis point is not unreasonable.


Especially in the United States7monthISMNon manufacturingPMIby56.7Far exceeding expectations and reaching a new high in the past three months, the resilience of the US economy still exists; The latest announcement7The monthly non farm employment data also far exceeded expectations, with market expectations for the Federal Reserve after the data is released9Monthly interest rate increase75The probability of exceeding interest rate hikes by basis points50Basis points; And this week it will also be announced that the United States7monthCPIData, if higher than expected by the Federal Reserve or more firm in9Monthly interest rate increase at least75Basis points. Therefore, in the context of frequent "hawkish" comments from Federal Reserve officials and the Federal Reserve's continued pace of interest rate hikes, there is still room for upward movement in the US dollar index and US real interest rates in the medium to long term, which may put downward pressure on gold prices; But at the same time, attention should also be paid to the risk aversion triggered by recent geopolitical changes and the continued severe short-term inflation situation in the United States, which supports gold prices.


Based on the above information, it can be seen that the United States7monthCPIOr it may indicate that inflation has peaked and fallen, and the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may slow down, thereby suppressing the US dollar and benefiting gold. Investors need to remain vigilant about this.


Today's Focus:


　　14:00Germany6Monthly and quarterly adjustment of current account


　　20:30U.S.A7monthPPIMonthly rate


　　20:30From the United States to8month6Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold reached a slight high yesterday and then closed flat, with a daily yield of slightly higherKLine, highest probe1807dollar|Ounces, the integer level has reached, with a slight decline in the end of the day and still closing at1794Nearby, previous high point. The daily line is currently entering a stage of being bullish to cautious. After releasing space through continuous rebounds, there is gradually resistance to suppress upward, and currently there is still a competition between rebounds and trend reversals. On the two trading days of this week, it was characterized by a seesaw oscillation, with a weak outlook and a fluctuation above the upward trend line. Insufficient spatial continuity and twists and turns. On a weekly basis, this week is the fourth week of rebound, with clear signs of weakness in strength. The weekly line may be accompanied by a double step back to confirm support. The common method of sawing and washing in volatile market conditions.4The hourly chart temporarily maintains stability and operates within the ascending channel, with repeated twists and turns, but the attached figureMACDUnable to reach new heights, causing the short-term rhythm to start sawing. At present, Bollinger Road has also started to close. Combining with yesterday's approach, although there has been a slight increase, sustainability is a problem, not unilateral, but rather presented in a fluctuating form for a longer period of time. It is difficult to achieve a one-sided market and space that is determined by the combination of space and form. The uncertainty of the long and short positions of the US dollar also makes it more difficult to determine the short-term range of gold. Perhaps it will be accompanied by a sawing and vibrating dish washing for a long time. In summary, the guidelines for today's gold operation are as follows: the gold teacher suggests focusing on rebounding from high altitude, with a short term focus on the upper part of the bullish market1802-1807Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1780-1775Frontline support.


Empty order strategy:


Gold rebound:1797-1800Short selling in batches nearby, stop loss5Points, target1790-1780Nearby, break down and take a look1775-1770First line (recommended for reference only!)


Multiple order strategy:


Gold Callback:1783-1778Batch long nearby, stop loss5Points, target1790-1793Nearby, break down and take a look1798-1803First line (recommended for reference only!)


Free benefits within the technical guidance group:The market is constantly changing every day,We have a strong analysis team, and every order we make is carefully considered and judged,To ensure that every order can be profitable and eliminated!Two to three orders per day do not require overnight prosperity,Just ask for the safety of falling into the bag!Profit is very high,I scored nine points alone,One point depends on luck,Eight points rely on strength!One or two days is luck,What about that week?Two weeks?Whether it is within the circle or in a group strategy,Or major financial websites,Team teachers are all current price lists!Daily analysis team technical guidance group, real-time announcement of daily market trends and push notifications,Real time current price list: Each entry is reasonable, evidence-based, publicly available, and can be accessed for free for group experience and inspection!


　　(Add Guide Gold Master（WX:zns83721 QQ:3096653915）After,Free application for direct group experience. Daily current price3-5single)I solemnly promise to add my friend to the guide's gold teacher,Just let me shout if you want me to,I can also tell you the correct single making techniques and mentality,Various solutions for lock orders. This is the key to turning your losses into profits!


Free benefits within the technical guidance group:


① Daily updates:Market trends and intraday reminders,Opportunities for warehouse building.


② Featured columns:Private Q&A,solution τ,Analyze the trend of the day.


③ Welfare delivery:Golden Short Line Opportunity Layout,Continuous tracking(Band opening)。


④ New fan benefits:Trading tactics《KThe King of Online Trading,Teach you how to do a good job in the short term