Guide Metallographer:8.11Today's gold trend analysis,GPI利多金价站稳1800

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Wednesday(08month10day)International gold price in the United States7monthCPIAnnual rate below expectations, spot gold skyrocketing13USD to1803.19dollar/ounce. There are currently four driving factors for inflation. Commodity prices are disappearing; Supply chain issues are also disappearing. But there are still housing and labor markets left, which will be reflected in the inflation of the service industry. Service sector inflation remains a problem, caused by housing and labor shortages, and this situation will not disappear in the short term until the Federal Reserve manages to disrupt demand, which has not yet happened


　　10The annual breakeven rate is currently2.50%, lower than earlier this year3.07%The high point of. This means that market participants now anticipate the future10The annual average inflation rate for the year is2.50%。 He said,7monthCPIIt may be lower than expected. He said, "There are too many uncertain factors for us to have a particularly strong view. We can only say that this is consistent with the peak of inflation and will be traded with it." The US unemployment rate has slightly decreased3.5%, creating2020year2New low since the beginning of the month. Monthly increase in average hourly wage0.5%, year-on-year growth5.2%。 Previously, the Bank of England announced a rate hike50Bps to1.75%, from1995The largest interest rate hike since the beginning of the year, also known as2008year12The highest interest rate since the beginning of the month. Although at the Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate increase75After meeting market expectations with a basis point landing, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made another "dove like" statement at a press conference that another significant rate hike depends on data, and slowing down the pace of rate hikes at a certain point in time may be appropriate. But in reality, inflation in the United States is still high and unabated. Compared to concerns about economic recession, the Federal Reserve clearly prioritizes combating inflation as the primary low point, although in the second quarter of the United StatesGDPAnnualized month on month shrinkage0.9%Despite falling into contraction for the second consecutive quarter and significantly lowering economic growth expectations, Federal Reserve officials have recently made more hawkish remarks compared to the previous press conference after the interest rate meeting. Federal Reserve Daley stated that the Fed's fight against inflation is "far from complete". The Federal Reserve's Meister also stated that,9The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in the month75A basis point is not unreasonable.


Especially in the United States7monthISMNon manufacturingPMIby56.7Far exceeding expectations and reaching a new high in the past three months, the resilience of the US economy still exists; The latest announcement7The monthly non farm employment data also far exceeded expectations, with market expectations for the Federal Reserve after the data is released9Monthly interest rate increase75The probability of exceeding interest rate hikes by basis points50Basis points; And this week it will also be announced that the United States7monthCPIData, if higher than expected by the Federal Reserve or more firm in9Monthly interest rate increase at least75Basis points. Therefore, in the context of frequent "hawkish" comments from Federal Reserve officials and the Federal Reserve's continued pace of interest rate hikes, there is still room for upward movement in the US dollar index and US real interest rates in the medium to long term, which may put downward pressure on gold prices; But at the same time, attention should also be paid to the risk aversion triggered by recent geopolitical changes and the continued severe short-term inflation situation in the United States, which supports gold prices.


Based on the above information, it can be seen that the United States7monthCPIOr it may indicate that inflation has peaked and fallen, and the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may slow down, thereby suppressing the US dollar and benefiting gold. Investors need to remain vigilant about this.


Technical analysis of gold:


　　白盘黄金基本如预期的承压1790一线居高震荡，下方回撤1783一线，白盘走势基本还是符合预期的，但欧盘时段受美指走势再度表现偏弱的影响，黄金也出现一波走高动作，高点测压至1795一线，虽然走高动能不是很强，且也并未改变日线以及小时图级别整体面临承压的局面，但是给短线操作上还是带来一定的麻烦的。4The hour is still in the process of rising. The key support point for this wave of upward trend is this upward trend line, which has repeatedly pushed up and down, but has never been able to fall below the upward trend line. In terms of technical structure, it has also maintained a fluctuating long position above the trend line. Currently, the support for the trend line is starting to move up1780附近。而随着昨日的启稳回升。


　　根据目前小时图结构，晚间行情或将继续保持居高震荡，如果出现再度回升也不意外，上方着重关注1800附近压力测试，如果行情能够测压至此，那么日线级别也将再度表现出严重的超买和顶部背离状态，回加重技术的看回修预期。不过目前受美指走势影响，黄金短线看涨情绪略显偏激，即便面临技术承压，可能回撤的空间也不会很大，下方可着重先关注1783-80争夺，如果跌破则再看1775一线争夺，此位得失将影响到日线级别的预期。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方重点关注1805-1810Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1780-1775Frontline support.


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1800-1802Short selling in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1795-1790Nearby, break down and take a look1785Frontline; (Suggested for reference only!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1785-1788Batch long nearby, stop loss5Points, target1795-1800Nearby, break down and take a look1805Frontline; (Suggested for reference only!)


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