Guide Metallographer:8.9今日黄金走势分析，黄金高位震荡等待美国CPI

　　goldMessage interpretation:


United States7New monthly non farm employment52.8Ten thousand people, creating2月以来最大增幅，远高于经济学家预期的25万人。同时，美国失业率小幅降至3.5%, creating2020year2New low since the beginning of the month. Monthly increase in average hourly wage0.5%, year-on-year growth5.2%。市场认为，在美国7月非农就业人数意外加速增长后，美联储在9month21日的下一次政策决定中继续加息75个基点的可能性接近70%，以抑制飙升的通胀，黄金目前承压调整。


　　尽管美国公司暂停招聘过程，但美国就业增长势头坚如磐石，现在7月非农就业人数出人意料走高，使的美联储政策制定者有底气继续强硬。美联储理事鲍曼上周六(8month6day)Indicating that the Federal Reserve should9Consider further interest rate hikes at the monthly meeting75One basis point to bring inflation back to2%The goal is to. Shocking America7The monthly non farm payroll report overturned the theory of economic recession and pushed the US dollar index higher7month28日以来最高水平，使黄金对其他货币持有者来说更加昂贵。尽管黄金被视为通胀对冲工具，但美国利率上升削弱了黄金吸引力。


　　纽约联储周一发布的一项调查显示，美国7月家庭支出增长为6.9%Yes2月以来的最低水平。降幅1.5个百分点是该系列调查开始以来的最大一次，而且不同年龄、教育和收入群体的家庭支出普遍下降。这表明美联储官员在抑制高通胀的战斗中正赢得锚定物价增长预期的斗争。


　　通胀预期是美联储政策制定者密切关注的一个关键动态指标，因为他们正在积极提高利率以控制处于40年高位的价格压力。自3月以来，美联储已将其政策利率提高了225个基点，以寻求将通胀率恢复到2%的目标。就未来一年预期而言，预期下降是由汽油和食品价格增长预期的大幅下降所驱动的，其中汽油价格增长预期的降幅是开展此调查九年来的第二大组成部分，食品价格增长预期的降幅为有史以来最大组成部分。根据最新的统计结果，市场对一年后通胀率的预期中值下降了0.6Percentage points to6.2%The expectation of prices in three years has decreased0.4Percentage points to3.2%, respectively for this year2Month and Last Year4The lowest level since the beginning of the month.


　　目前焦点集中将于周三(8month10day)公布的美国通胀数据上，这可能会为美联储加息路径提供更多线索。美国7monthCPI同比增长料回落0.2Percentage points to8.9%，7月份油价继续处于下行走势，这有可能缓解通胀压力，尽管通胀继续处于近40年高位附近。


　　黄金关注数据：


　　16:00China7monthM2Annual rate of money supply


　　18:00U.S.A7monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index


Technical analysis of gold:


　　昨日金价技术面企稳1770关口震荡迎来多头震荡上行修复，欧盘小幅冲高刺破1779一线承压快速回落二次回踩下探至1772一线企稳回升，晚间多头进一步反弹走高强势突破1780关口延续走强，并在凌晨震荡上行刺破1789一线强势收盘，日k线报收探底回升反包中阳，整体价格在1770上方再度出现强势企稳形态，今日短线价格还有进一步冲高上行预期，上方压力关注上周五开跌口1794上方，近期整体走势依旧处于多空震荡循环节奏，并非多头极强形态，今日冲高依旧可空一次再看回落震荡下方支撑关注1779关口，日内依托此区间继续看震荡。


　　从黄金盘面走势来看周线上在反弹触及到前期的压力位附近之后开始回落，在周线走势上连续的反弹完成之后大概率已经完成对于前期下跌的反弹修正，在周线走势上可能会开启第五浪下跌。在日线走势上非农之后大幅下跌几乎吞没掉上个交易日的涨幅，在H4级别走势上跌破前期的高位震荡区间自后惯性下跌，尾盘的一波小幅反弹基本完成技术形态的修复，黄金具备二次下跌的空间。高位冲高跳水，短期10average1780下成为反压，触及逢高空试探，下方留意66Daily moving average1753一线；黄金小时线级别：隔夜冲高回落，黄金承压1794-99，下方短期通道支撑1775-70一线，那么操作上可以依托1794-99分批空，综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期关注1794-1799Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1775-1770Frontline support.


　　今日操作策略：今日周二消息面也较少，预计在1775-1795区间震荡，可采取高抛低吸操作


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