Guide Metallographer:8.8Today's gold trend analysis, the first look of Golden Week suppresses backtesting

　　goldMessage interpretation:


In history, there has never been anything like the United States7A precedent like the month can be created within a month in a sluggish economy52.8Ten thousand job positions.3.5%Unemployment rate and1969The lowest level since the beginning of the year has remained unchanged, which is not consistent with the economic contraction.


But this does not mean that there will be no future recession. Ironically, it is the astonishing elasticity of the labor market that may pose the greatest long-term danger to the overall economy. The Federal Reserve is attempting to alleviate the historically tense employment situation and the pressure brought by rapid wage increases in an effort to control the situation40The highest level of inflation in many years.


　　Plante Moran Financial AdvisorsChief Investment OfficerJim BairdThe fact is, this gives the Federal Reserve additional space to continue tightening monetary policy, although it increases the likelihood of the economy falling into recession. It is not an easy task to continue tightening policy without causing negative impacts on consumers and the economy


In fact, with strong employment data(Average hourly wage12Monthly growth5.2%)Afterwards, traders accelerated their bets that the Federal Reserve would take more aggressive measures. Chicago Mercantile Exchange GroupCME GroupData shows that as of last Friday afternoon, the market believes that the Federal Reserve is9Third consecutive interest rate hike in a month0.75The probability of a percentage point is approximately69%。


Therefore, although US President Biden celebrated this huge employment data last Friday, there may be a more unpleasant data point this week. The most widely watched inflation indicatorCPIIt is expected to be released this Wednesday and the index will show sustained upward pressure, despite7The price of gasoline dropped significantly in the month.


This will complicate the Federal Reserve's balanced action of using interest rate hikes to ease inflation while preventing the economy from falling into recession. Just like asset management giantsBlackRockChief Investment Officer, Global Fixed Income DivisionRick RiederThe challenge lies in how to achieve a 'soft landing' when the economy enters a hot state and lands on a runway that has never been used before


　　RiederIn a customer report, it was stated that the data released today is much stronger than expected, making the Federal Reserve's work more complex. The Federal Reserve is attempting to create a milder employment environment to keep up with its efforts to mitigate current inflation levels."But the problem now is that interest rates still need to be(And how high)How long will it take to control inflation


The financial market is in opposition to the Federal Reserve in other aspects.


Last Friday afternoon, the yield of two-year US treasury bond bonds exceeded10The yield of one-year US treasury bond bonds reached about22The highest level in years. This phenomenon, known as the reverse Yield curve, has always been a sign of economic recession, especially when it lasts for a long time. In the current situation, the reverse direction is derived from7It started at the beginning of the month.


But this does not mean that a recession is imminent, but it may occur in the next year or two. Although this means that the Federal Reserve still has some time, it may also mean that it cannot extravagantly raise interest rates slowly, but must continue to act quickly - a situation that policymakers hope to avoid.


　　Charles SchwabChief Investment StrategistLiz Ann SondersThis is certainly not my basic expectation, but I think we may start hearing rumors of interest rate hikes between meetings, provided that the next batch of inflation reports is hot


He described the current situation as a "unique cycle" where demand is shifting from goods to services and posing multiple challenges to the economy, making discussions about whether the United States is in a recession less important than future issues.


This is a common view among economists, who are concerned that the toughest part of this journey is still ahead.


World ConsultationThe Conference BoardSenior EconomistFrank steemerAlthough2022In the first half of this year, economic output contracted for two consecutive quarters, but the strong labor market means that we may not yet be in a recession. However, economic activity is expected to cool down further by the end of the year, and the US economy may2023The possibility of falling into recession at the beginning of the year is increasing


Technical analysis of gold:


Last week, gold first rebounded, followed by a correction, and then experienced an abnormal upward movement before non agricultural activities. However, on Friday, the non agricultural unexpected beauty triggered a significant rebound in gold. Prior to the unexpected rebound, the daily line closed with a negative line and the weekly line closed with a small positive line. The pressure was measured to10Near the weekly moving average, according to the weekly structure, short-term gains may be temporarily postponed. It is highly likely that there will be some correction adjustments this week, but the space is not expected to be very large. Below, we can focus on5Weekly moving average1750Nearby support.


In terms of daily structure, although the gold trend was a bit messy last week, the structural pattern is still very clear. Thursday's abnormal pull up and pressure measurement60The pressure near the daily line has led to a technical overbought market and a top deviation in technical indicators, which has also made room for the situation of non agricultural banks on Friday. After the non agricultural period, gold significantly retreated and fell back to5Daily line1775Below, although it will eventually close near this level, there is still a clear signal of adjustment at the daily level. There is a possibility that the market will continue to retreat this week, but currently the daily moving average is crossing upwards, so the moving average will also provide some support. Therefore, this week's gold can see the continuation of the recovery, but don't expect too much space. You can pay attention to it below first10Daily line1760Nearby support, if there is a break, then look again1750even to the extent that20Daily line1740Near.


The trend of gold combined with the hourly chart shows a significant pullback in the market after the announcement of non-agricultural products on Friday evening, with a downward trend1765Nearby rebound, but rebound not broken1780Since then, the market has been in a narrow range of sideways fluctuations until now, indicating that the confidence of market bulls has indeed been suppressed, but there have also been counterattacks. Therefore, although there is a need for continued decline in the market this week, it may not be easy to fall. Continue to follow above at the beginning of the week1780-83It is expected that there will not be a high possibility of a breakthrough in the short selling gap. You can continue to follow Friday's low point below1765as well as1760Nearby support testing, looking forward to market breaking1760But don't have too strong expectations, even if it falls, you need to take it step by step. In summary, the guidelines for today's gold operation are as follows: bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish1783-1788Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1760-1755Frontline support.


Operational strategy:


On Monday, there was relatively little news and the market was basically volatile. It is expected that1770-1785Interval oscillation, can be operated from low to high altitude


Free benefits within the technical guidance group:The market is constantly changing every day,We have a strong analysis team, and every order we make is carefully considered and judged,To ensure that every order can be profitable and eliminated!Two to three orders per day do not require overnight prosperity,Just ask for the safety of falling into the bag!Profit is very high,I scored nine points alone,One point depends on luck,Eight points rely on strength!One or two days is luck,What about that week?Two weeks?Whether it is within the circle or in a group strategy,Or major financial websites,Team teachers are all current price lists!Daily analysis team technical guidance group, real-time announcement of daily market trends and push notifications,Real time current price list: Each entry is reasonable, evidence-based, publicly available, and can be accessed for free for group experience and inspection!


　　(Add Guide Gold Master（WX:zns83721 QQ:3096653915）After,Free application for direct group experience. Daily current price3-5single)I solemnly promise to add my friend to the guide's gold teacher,Just let me shout if you want me to,I can also tell you the correct single making techniques and mentality,Various solutions for lock orders. This is the key to turning your losses into profits!


Free benefits within the technical guidance group:


① Daily updates:Market trends and intraday reminders,Opportunities for warehouse building.


② Featured columns:Private Q&A,solution τ,Analyze the trend of the day.


③ Welfare delivery:Golden Short Line Opportunity Layout,Continuous tracking(Band opening)。


④ New fan benefits:Trading tactics《KThe King of Online Trading,Teach you how to do a good job in the short term