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goldMessage interpretation:
Beijing Time20:30Published by the United States7Increase in non agricultural employment after the monthly adjustment52.8Ten thousand people, creating this year2The largest increase since the beginning of the month, nearly twice the market expectation; The non agricultural data for the first two months has also been revised up,6The employment report for the month was37.2Ten thousand people have reached the highest level of cultivation39.8Ten thousand people,5Monthly data from38.4Wanshang Xiuzhi38.6Ten thousand. U.S.A7The monthly unemployment rate is recorded3.5%, creating2020year2New low since the beginning of the month. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that job growth was generally recorded, mainly in the leisure and hotel, professional and business services, and healthcare industries.7The "explosion" in the number of non agricultural employment in the month marks the third consecutive employment number19Monthly growth. The employment report depicts a fairly healthy economic landscape, despiteGDPShrinking for several consecutive quarters. The labor demand in interest rate sensitive industries such as housing and retail has eased, but airlines and restaurants cannot find enough labor. The employment report may force the Federal Reserve to9Third interest rate hike at the monthly meeting75A basis point, but this largely depends on inflation data.
After the release of non agricultural data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates have sharply increased. US interest ratefuturesThe price shows that the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate will reach3.5%Before the data release3.4%。 The Federal Reserve will accumulate interest rate hikes this year118.9Basis points. according toCMEFederal Reserve Observation9Monthly interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is61.5%The probability has exceeded9Monthly interest rate increase50Basis points.
Today's Focus:
13:45Switzerland7Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment
16:30eurozone8monthSentixInvestor confidence index
Technical analysis of gold:
Last week, gold first rebounded, followed by a correction, and then experienced an abnormal upward movement before non agricultural activities. However, on Friday, the non agricultural unexpected beauty triggered a significant rebound in gold. Prior to the unexpected rebound, the daily line closed with a negative line and the weekly line closed with a small positive line. The pressure was measured to10Near the weekly moving average, according to the weekly structure, short-term gains may be temporarily postponed. It is highly likely that there will be some correction adjustments this week, but the space is not expected to be very large. Below, we can focus on5Weekly moving average1750Nearby support.
In terms of daily structure, although the gold trend was a bit messy last week, the structural pattern is still very clear. Thursday's abnormal pull up and pressure measurement60The pressure near the daily line has led to a technical overbought market and a top deviation in technical indicators, which has also made room for the situation of non agricultural banks on Friday. After the non agricultural period, gold significantly retreated and fell back to5Daily line1775Below, although it will eventually close near this level, there is still a clear signal of adjustment at the daily level. There is a possibility that the market will continue to retreat this week, but currently the daily moving average is crossing upwards, so the moving average will also provide some support. Therefore, this week's gold can see the continuation of the recovery, but don't expect too much space. You can pay attention to it below first10Daily line1760Nearby support, if there is a break, then look again1750even to the extent that20Daily line1740Near.
The trend of gold combined with the hourly chart shows a significant pullback in the market after the announcement of non-agricultural products on Friday evening, with a downward trend1765Nearby rebound, but rebound not broken1780Since then, the market has been in a narrow range of sideways fluctuations until now, indicating that the confidence of market bulls has indeed been suppressed, but there have also been counterattacks. Therefore, although there is a need for continued decline in the market this week, it may not be easy to fall. Continue to follow above at the beginning of the week1780-83It is expected that there will not be a high possibility of a breakthrough in the short selling gap. You can continue to follow Friday's low point below1765as well as1760Nearby support testing, looking forward to market breaking1760But don't have too strong expectations, even if it falls, you need to take it step by step. In summary, the guidelines for today's gold operation are as follows: bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish1783-1788Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1760-1755Frontline support.
Operational strategy:
On Monday, there was relatively little news and the market was basically volatile. It is expected that1770-1785Interval oscillation, can be operated from low to high altitude
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