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goldMessage interpretation:
United States7New employment positions added in the month52.8万个,大大超过预期的25万个,金价因此下跌1%。
RJOfutures高级市场策略师Frank Cholly表示:“非农就业数据令人意外,美联储可能大举加息的想法对金价没有帮助。”
前一周,市场很有信心地认为,由于经济放缓,美联储可能会提前调整过度加息的政策。然而,OANDASenior Market AnalystEdward Moya说,这一切在上周都发生了变化,尤其是随着强劲的就业报告。
Moya表示:“这改变了游戏规则。人们对美联储将转向的信心相当高,一些人甚至预计这最早会在9月份发生。现在,焦点转向美联储是否需要采取更激进的措施。由于本周加息预期将被提振,金价将会挣扎。"
他指出,市场对美联储更大幅度加息的预期进行了重新定价,这对黄金构成挑战。
上周金价曾试图突破1800美元,但以失败告终。他指出:“看起来黄金可能试图稳定在这一水平之上,这对黄金来说将很难继续下去。一次性从1700The US dollar has risen to1800美元,现在看来有点累了。”
不过,他补充称,金价上周五回落并不意味着大幅回落至每盎司1700美元。他说:“1750-1770美元区域是黄金的良好支撑位。”
从技术角度来看,Cholly认为在1735USD to1750美元的水平会有很多买家进入。在阻力位方面,金价收在每盎司1800美元上方至关重要,此时Cholly的看涨情绪会变得更加强烈。
Cholly补充道:“我不认为金价会再到1700美元,因为那里有支撑,但多头要想回来,金价需要收在1800美元以上。如果金价能够突破1800USD to1812美元的水平,买盘将会变得积极,我们在到达1850-1875美元时不会有任何困难。这就是动力的来源。”
本周人们关注的焦点将集中在美国7月份的通胀报告上,经济学家们预计,美国7monthCPI年率将达到8.7%Previously6月份加速到9.1%。任何超出预期的意外都将对黄金不利。
Moya指出:“本周一切都将是关于通胀的,价格压力可能会持续升温。这暗示美国国债收益率可能进一步上升,而美元将在本周表现良好。市场将会感到紧张,因为债券市场的抛售可能会加剧,这对不带利息的黄金从来都不是好事。”
分析师警告称,如果通胀超出预期,市场将预期9Monthly interest rate hike75个基点,甚至开始预计加息100Basis points.
Gainesville Coins贵金属专家Everett Millman表示,目前任何正面的宏观消息对市场来说都是坏消息,因为市场预期美联储将采取何种应对措施。他说:“经济看起来越强劲,美联储的回旋余地就越大,可以更积极地加息。例如,如果就业形势艰难,美联储会更倾向于转向,放慢加息步伐,甚至暂停加息。但任何好的经济消息都会推动美元走高。”
他还提醒投资者,在接下来的几个月里,数据往往会被修改,这可能会影响7月份强劲的就业数据,甚至是即将公布的通胀数据。
Today's Focus:
13:45Switzerland7Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment
16:30eurozone8monthSentixInvestor confidence index
Technical analysis of gold:
Last week, gold first rebounded, followed by a correction, and then experienced an abnormal upward movement before non agricultural activities. However, on Friday, the non agricultural unexpected beauty triggered a significant rebound in gold. Prior to the unexpected rebound, the daily line closed with a negative line and the weekly line closed with a small positive line. The pressure was measured to10Near the weekly moving average, according to the weekly structure, short-term gains may be temporarily postponed. It is highly likely that there will be some correction adjustments this week, but the space is not expected to be very large. Below, we can focus on5Weekly moving average1750Nearby support.
In terms of daily structure, although the gold trend was a bit messy last week, the structural pattern is still very clear. Thursday's abnormal pull up and pressure measurement60The pressure near the daily line has led to a technical overbought market and a top deviation in technical indicators, which has also made room for the situation of non agricultural banks on Friday. After the non agricultural period, gold significantly retreated and fell back to5Daily line1775Below, although it will eventually close near this level, there is still a clear signal of adjustment at the daily level. There is a possibility that the market will continue to retreat this week, but currently the daily moving average is crossing upwards, so the moving average will also provide some support. Therefore, this week's gold can see the continuation of the recovery, but don't expect too much space. You can pay attention to it below first10Daily line1760Nearby support, if there is a break, then look again1750even to the extent that20Daily line1740Near.
The trend of gold combined with the hourly chart shows a significant pullback in the market after the announcement of non-agricultural products on Friday evening, with a downward trend1765Nearby rebound, but rebound not broken1780Since then, the market has been in a narrow range of sideways fluctuations until now, indicating that the confidence of market bulls has indeed been suppressed, but there have also been counterattacks. Therefore, although there is a need for continued decline in the market this week, it may not be easy to fall. Continue to follow above at the beginning of the week1780-83It is expected that there will not be a high possibility of a breakthrough in the short selling gap. You can continue to follow Friday's low point below1765as well as1760Nearby support testing, looking forward to market breaking1760But don't have too strong expectations, even if it falls, you need to take it step by step. In summary, the guidelines for today's gold operation are as follows: bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish1783-1788Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1760-1755Frontline support.
Operational strategy:
On Monday, there was relatively little news and the market was basically volatile. It is expected that1770-1785Interval oscillation, can be operated from low to high altitude
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