Guide Metallographer:8.8今日黄金走势分析，黄金调整持续，

　　goldMessage surface:


The United States announced on Friday7Monthly unemployment rate recorded3.5%, lower than market expectations3.6%； U.S.A7Record of non agricultural employment population after seasonal adjustment52.810000 people, higher than market expectations2510000 people.


　　CNBC评论称，美国7月非农就业报告好于预期，显示就业市场强劲，这可能意味着美联储将进一步加息，周五美国股市futures下跌。由于美联储继续加息以抑制飙升的通货膨胀，就业增长预计将放缓，但7月报告显示，劳动力市场仍然火热。这份报告至关重要，因为它是美联储在9月份会议上决定加息幅度之前将看到的两份报告之一。对美联储来说，另一个坏消息是劳动力参与率下降。上个月，就业市场上正在工作或正在找工作的人数有所下降。美联储真正想要的是看到人们重新涌入劳动力市场、推高失业率、工资压力缓解。相反，我们看到的是，人们离开了就业市场，雇主们用更高的工资来吸引那些留下来的人。火热的劳动力市场通常意味着高通胀。


　　评论称，7月份，美国雇主雇佣的员工数量远超预期，失业率降至疫情爆发前的3.5%，为经济没有陷入衰退提供了迄今为止最有力的证据。7月份非农就业人数新增52.8万人，这标志着就业人数连续第19Monthly growth. The employment report depicts a fairly healthy economic landscape, despiteGDPShrinking for several consecutive quarters. The labor demand in interest rate sensitive industries such as housing and retail has eased, but airlines and restaurants cannot find enough labor. The employment report may force the Federal Reserve to9Third interest rate hike at the monthly meeting75个基点，不过这在很大程度上取决于通胀数据。平均时薪月率继6月份增长0.4%Afterwards,7Monthly growth0.5%，这使得工资同比增长5.2%。尽管工资增长似乎已经见顶，但压力依然存在。上周公布的数据显示，第二季度的工资增长年率是2001年以来最快的。


Wells Fargo Bank analyzed that the United States7月非农就业报告显示，就业数据好于预期，引发了美元暴涨。富国银行分析师表示，目前看来，美联储可能在9monthFOMC会议上加息至少50个基点，如果未来两份通胀报告显示通胀没有下降的迹象，美联储可能还会再加息75个基点。目前，经济数据传递出的信息喜忧参半，炙手可热的就业数据似乎越来越与其他数据不相符。换句话说，每月超过50万个就业岗位的增长和不断下降的失业率是难以忽视的，我们认为这些数据将给FOMC提供信心，以积极推进对抗通胀的斗争。


　　德商银行分析称，随着美国经济在2022年前两个季度出现收缩，金融市场流行的“技术性衰退”的定义得到了满足。然而，到目前为止劳动力市场一直非常强劲，这将最终决定美国经济是否会因为失业率上升和消费支出下降而走向真正的衰退。在7月会议后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔明确提到了9月会议前公布的两份就业报告，它们将有助于决定美联储是否必须在加息上强力刹车。目前非农就业报告已公布，显示劳动力市场仍然火热，美联储为降低通胀压力所希望的降温未能实现。因此，对美联储9Monthly interest rate hike again75个基点的呼声可能会越来越高。


Analysis shows that the United States7月非农就业人数是预期的两倍多，表明就业需求非常旺盛，尤其是在劳动力短缺的服务业，缓解了人们对经济衰退的担忧。同时，这也让美联储有理由在通胀持续数十年高企的背景下继续推行激进的货币政策。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，有可能在9月份的会议上第三次加息75个基点，这将取决于届时的通胀和经济数据。随着美联储收紧货币政策的影响，劳动力市场可能在未来几个月放缓，但目前，劳动力市场依然火热，有望缓解人们对衰退的担忧。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is32%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is68%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is18%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is52.3%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is29.7%。


Today's Focus:


　　13:45Switzerland7Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment


　　16:30eurozone8monthSentixInvestor confidence index


Gold technology:


　　黄金日线收成阴吞阳，将前一日上涨空间尽数回吐，重新回到趋势线附近争夺，周线第三周收阳，但收出了上影线。初步形成压力，同时也是10均线的压力。日线在周尾形成回吐收低，本周周初两个交易日会进入方向选择。也是上周的三角区间选择突破。上轨1795，下轨1765.关注趋势线的得与失决定4小时级别的方向，也是日内的方向。破位看空，反之启稳则继续看反弹。早盘可能还会在三角区间内震荡拉锯。


Gold:{1}retracement 1770-1768There are many nearby, defense1764.5, Objective1790-1795.{Dislocation1765则需要反手空}


　　{2}upper1810-1813Nearby air, defense1815, Objective1790-1775.


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