Dingsheng Jinshi:8.6今日黄金走势分析，巨量资金接连砸盘，黄...

What are the recent news impactsgoldcrude oilTrend? Where is the trend of gold going?


　　​金价周五(8month5day)扩大跌幅，跌幅超过1%，美国就业报告令人鼓舞，缓解了对经济衰退的担忧，并引发了市场对美联储将坚持其激进紧缩路线的希望。在就业报告公布前，黄金市场一直在测试1800美元左右的阻力，但在对该数据的初步反应中失去了看涨动力。现货黄金短线下跌近24美元，刷新日低至1764.81美元，较日高则回落30USD.


　　数据显示，非农报告出炉之后，巨量资金接连砸盘，推动金价迅速下跌：COMEXMost Active GoldfuturesContract Beijing Time8month5day20:30Instant trading within one minute3402Hand, total value of trading contracts6.05USD100mnCOMEXMost Active Gold Futures Contract Beijing Time8month5day20:32Instant trading within one minute2150Hand, total value of trading contracts3.81USD100mnCOMEXMost Active Gold Futures Contract Beijing Time8month5day20:56Instant trading within one minute2075Hand, total value of trading contracts3.67USD100mn


Friday Beijing Time(8month5day)20:30，美国劳工部公布的7月非农就业报告大幅向好，失业率进一步走低。现货黄金急跌15USD to1773.26dollar/盎司，随后持续回落最低下跌至1764一线，超低失业率暗示通胀将继续保持在高位，并为美联储继续大幅加息提供保障。市场不得不重新评估美联储对劳动力市场如此强劲的反应。美国利率期货价格显示，美联储9Monthly interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is62%，而之前的可能性为40.5%。加息75个基点的可能性超过加息50个基点。美联储观察：美国联邦基金利率期货价格在就业报告公布后显示，市场认为美联储利率年底前利率将达到3.5%（之前预期为3.4%）。


Analysis of the gold market trend next Monday:


　　黄金技术面分析：黄金今日开盘在1791.13dollar/盎司，开盘后金价出现了高位震荡，在1788-1793高位徘徊，欧盘时段出现了向下破位，美盘时段在非农数据大幅利空后，黄金直线下破，最低给到了1770开始反弹。日线级别上看，结构上而言，有轻微的压力，但K线形态大阳线收得饱满，不排除直接强势顶破压力线。此前在1788承压后先走出了回撤。下探回升再探高，相对前一次的力度就更大一些，目前K线结构形成阳吞阴的收复性上涨。但是数据利好再次支撑美指反弹打压金银。


　　​黄金目前在1小时级别走势上在连续的震荡之后跌破前期的高位震荡区间，在1小时级别走势开始彻底走弱，行情到目前为止都没有太大的反弹力度，短期整体走势上依旧偏弱一些。当前关注下短线是否有修复的走势。下方支撑位置在1755-1752Upward rebound1782-3附近继续进场空。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上鼎盛金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方关注1782-1785USD resistance, follow below1755-1760To support, it is necessary to control the position and stop loss issues, strictly set stop losses, and do not operate against orders. The recent market turbulence has been significant, with opportunities and risks coexisting. Control risks and increase profits.


　　8.6Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1780-1782Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss5Points, target1770-1760Nearby, break down and take a look1750frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


　　策略二：黄金第一次回调1755-1760Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss5Points, target1770Nearby, break down and take a look1780frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Analysis of the crude oil market trend next Monday:


Friday（8month5日）亚欧时段，美原油小幅上涨，目前交投于89.24附近，油价在2month18Daily low point87.46附近获得了一些支撑，部分空头离场，还有一些逢低买盘涌现，给油价提供了一些反弹动能，亚洲股市上涨，也给油价提供了一些支撑，不过，隔夜英国央行加息后警告衰退风险，市场对全球经济衰退的担忧仍情绪升温，原油需求担忧挥之不去；伊朗石油部长称伊朗准备尽快返回国际原油市场，也增加供给过剩担忧，油价后市下行风险仍存。本交易日投资者料关注美国7月份非农数据的表现，目前市场预计就业增长将放缓，如果符合预期或者差于预期，可能会进一步打压油价。此外，投资者还需留意伊朗方面相关消息、地缘局势和新冠疫情相关消息。


　　原油技术面分析；原油昨日延续下行，破低之后的弱势延续，日线再次收阴K线，底部破位加速阶段，周线颈线的失守，周线级别的回落，目前空间才开始启动，空间还可继续扩大。日线收低形成小台阶向下，昨日高点91.80是今日的临界点，昨日在91.30-91.50空以及90.40-90.50加空，低位的空单已落袋，高位91.30-91.50空单继续下看波段。日内短线配合反弹继续加仓看空即可。4小时下行通道中运行，破低之后延伸下行空间，同时也是构造小周期级别的弱势台阶下行，小时图比较明显的弱台阶，随着反弹高点96.50 91.80.台阶下行通道比较鲜明，前一个高点即是隔日的临界点，而昨日的反弹高点91.80成为今日的防守点，阻力点则结合形态去安排反弹空即可，综上所述，原油今日思路上鼎盛金师建议以反弹高空为主，上方短期关注90-91USD resistance, follow below86-85USD support.


Serve as an analyst and commentator for well-known financial channels such as "Golden Net" and "Globalforeign exchange》Professional contributors to several well-known financial forums such as "Huitong Net" and "Zhongjin Net", specializing in short, medium, and long term operations of gold, crude oil, and silver. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market. Suggestions are for reference only; This article is original by Dingsheng Jinshi, who carefully writes every analysis and conveys valuable investment concepts. If there is any similarity, it is purely plagiarism. Readers should be discerning and respect originality!