Guide Metallographer:8.5今日黄金走势分析，英央行加息落地，7Monthly non...

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Interpretation of the Golden News:


Friday(8month5day)The international gold price remained stable at a record high set overnight7month5Recent highs1794.84Near the bottom of the US dollar, the rebound of the US dollar index slowed down the pace of gold price rise. But the worsening economic recession continues to support gold prices, and the long-awaited United States7月非农数据将在日内稍后公布。


　　美国劳工部将在北京时间周五20:30publish7月非农就业报告，有望进一步明晰美联储为应对通胀而采取的激进紧缩计划。经济学家预计，美国7月料增加25万个非农就业岗位，增幅不及前值。


　　OANDASenior AnalystJeffrey Halley表示，随着市场继续押注通胀达峰和经济衰退，黄金价格表现将更多地取决于美元走势。“若就业数据疲软，将支撑黄金上涨势头，因为随着收益率下降，这可能会导致美元再次走低。未来几个交易日，黄金应该会继续向1900美元附近迈进。”


　　多位美联储官员本周发表了更为鹰派的言论，美联储进一步收紧政策的前景可能会抑制多头大举押注黄金的意愿。加上近期全球股市企稳，可能进一步限制避险资产黄金涨幅。


　　但投资者仍担心经济下滑，并不断调降美联储在9月会议上更大幅度加息的想法，美元多头近期处于守势，并为非孳息黄金提供了一些支持。


　　美联储官员梅斯特表示，美国经济衰退风险有所增加，并补充说供应问题可能会持续一段时间。她并补充道，至少在今年和2023In the first half of this year, US interest rates will continue to rise.


　　英国央行隔夜如期加息50Basis points, creating1995年以来最大单次加息幅度。但英央行政策制定者预计，未来五个季度将出现经济衰退。英银行长贝利坦诚，虽然他理解上调利率会给许多人带来经济痛苦，但“其他选择只会更糟”。


Today's Focus:


　　09:30澳洲联储公布货币政策声明


　　14:00Germany6Monthly industrial output rate after quarterly adjustment


　　14:00britain7monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index after quarterly adjustment


　　14:45France6Monthly industrial output rate


　　14:45France6Monthly trade account


　　20:30Canada7Monthly Employment Number


　　20:30U.S.A7Monthly unemployment rate


　　20:30U.S.A7Non agricultural employment population after rose adjustment


Technical analysis of gold:


Yesterday, gold continued to fluctuate and rebound, and as expected, even broke through at the end of the trading day1790, tested to1795附近，日线收得一实体饱和阳线，在今晚非农数据将公布之前，黄金出现如此反常走势，无疑加大了今晚非农数据的不确定性风险。日线结构上，周二的冲高回落阴线并未来带来空间上的进一步回修，昨日行情持续震荡反弹，收得实体饱和阳线也很是意外，这不仅使得日线级别指标出现顶部背离，同时上方也将面临60Daily line1800附近压力，如果晚间非农利空黄金，那么昨日的这波反常上涨很有可能会给行情造成更大的空间回落。而如果晚间非农利多黄金，则昨日的反常上涨则提前透支了上涨空间，对于后面的分析以及操作上都带来难度而不是机会。日内黄金暂看上方60Daily line1800Nearby pressure, pay attention below5Daily line1775Nearby support, if there is an upward break, the trend will be abnormal, and it is also very likely to open up a new upward trend, but this approach is not very helpful for operation. If there is a downward break, the trend will be abnormal5On the daily basis, the short-term market trend is extended and adjusted, and there may be a pullback below20Near the daily line.


　　黄金结合小时图走势，昨日黄金持续攀爬回升，在重大数据前，行情以小碎步上涨的方式出现，很让人难以理解，对于这种反常的走势状态，务必要严加防范。日内黄金预期暂时还是会在1790Nearby competition for volatility, technical conditions allow market conditions to be tested1800Nearby, below focus on yesterday's abnormal rebound breakthrough1775-73This is also yesterday's market trend1790附近有承压后的回撤低点位，所以一旦此位失守，则短线的反常行情也就可能结束。操作上，鉴于今晚非农数据公布，市场情绪紧张异常，不确定的风险会比较大，故日内保守选择观望为宜。激进则还是参考技术走势需要，侧重于择高搏短空，但是务必要控制轻仓状态，严格带好止损，不断的尝试，以防市场情绪突变带来异动走势风险。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1800-1805Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1780-1775Frontline support.


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