Guide Metallographer:8.4今日黄金走势分析，美联储加息预期走强

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　昨日晚间，美国供应商管理协会公布数据显示，美国7月非制造业采购经理人从6Of55.3Bounce to56.7，远好于市场预期的53.5，结束了此前连续三个月下滑的趋势。数据表明市场订单增长依旧强劲，打消了市场对美国经济陷入衰退的担忧。也说明美国供应瓶颈正在缓解，部分受益于大宗商品价格出现回落。在数据公布后，美元出现上涨，而黄金价格小幅下挫。


　　昨日晚间，美联储官员布拉德在接受媒体采访时表示，赞成在前期发力大幅加息，并重申希望年底利率达到3.75%-4%。进一步强调了美联储必须要看到令人信服的证据，表明整体和核心通胀指标全都出现令人信服地的下降，然后美联储才能停止加息。同时，美联储官员卡什卡利也表示，美联储在2023年转向降息的可能性极小，目前会继续支持美联储继续提高利率，直到认为通胀已经顺利回落至2%。在多位美联储官员进一步释放鹰派信号后，市场加息押注正持续升温。


　　近期美联储众多官员持续释放鹰派言论，力挺加息。隔夜圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，美国没有衰退，尽管目前连续两个季度出现负增长，但依然认为美国经济下半年将出现正增长。同时还表示，美联储应当年内让利率达到3.75%to4%，这意味着年底前美联储还将累计加息150个基点。加息预期增强，隔夜导致金价再次试探1755关键支撑位。


The United States was announced overnight7monthMarkitService industryPMI终值，数据结果显示为47.3，虽然略高于前值和预期值47，但是依然跌破荣枯线，为2020year7月以来新低。美国经济状况在7月份显著恶化，制造业和服务业的商业活动都在下降。整体产出降幅是全球金融危机以来最大的，这表明经济很有可能连续第三个季度萎缩。


　　隔夜还公布了美国7monthISMNon manufacturingPMI 56.7, higher than expected53.5And before value55.3, USA6Monthly factory order rate2%，也高于预期1.1%And before value1.60%。因订单增长强劲，同时供应瓶颈和物价压力缓解，支撑了经济并未陷入衰退。美元指数因经济数据持续好转，有再度走强预期，金银近期还会有承压。


Today's Focus:


　　16:00欧洲央行公布经济公报


　　19:00Bank of England Announces Interest Rate Resolutions and Meeting Minutes


　　19:30U.S.A7Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs


　　19:30Bank of England Governor Bailey Holds a Press Conference


　　20:30From the United States to7month30Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A6Monthly trade account


　　22:00U.S.A7New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index


　　24:00美联储梅斯特就货币政策发表讲话


Technical analysis of gold:


　　随着日线的探高收低，日内短线还会延续走震荡，由于此前连阳上升之后，首次转阴，这波转阴是结束反弹还是回踩蓄势后重新反转向上有待确认。还需要多加几个交易日的收盘情况来决定。4小时完成了ABC浪的反弹，这是下跌趋势中的反弹小三浪，昨日形成冲高回落，C浪高点回撤，日内回踩会接近上升趋势线，也就是4小时的多头支撑线，两个上涨浪形反弹，使得短线走多，日内此根上升线是关键，此前离得比较远，不好判定，随着昨日的冲高回落，日内亚盘就会逼近上升线，若是失守且收盘在趋势线之下，则趋势重新转空，反之下探后能够启稳，那么短线还将继续延伸反弹。并且存在反转向上的可能。均线指标来看，昨日触及到了270单位均线承压，目前中期均线还在大周期均线之下，这也是昨日强调在1786上方价格有较大的冲高回落风险。今日短线相对就比较分化，随着昨日的回落，小时图还会适当延续，综上所述，黄金今日思路上指南金师建议以区间震荡为主，上方短期关注1778-1783Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1752-1747Frontline support.


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