Guide Metallographer:8.4Analysis of today's gold trend

　　goldMessage interpretation:


United States7monthMariktService industryPMIFinal value recorded47.3Higher than market expectations47.


　　评论称，美国经济状况在7月份显著恶化，制造业和服务业的商业活动都在下降。排除为应对新冠大流行实行封锁的月份，整体产出降幅是全球金融危机以来最大的，这表明经济很有可能连续第三个季度萎缩。收紧的金融环境意味着，金融服务行业正在引领经济放缓，美联储将进一步大幅加息，因为该数据可能会加剧经济低迷。与此同时，利率上升，加上通胀持续飙升，已经波及到消费领域，这意味着春季家庭在旅游、旅游、酒店和娱乐等商品和活动上的支出激增现在已经逆转，因为家庭支出转向了生活必需品。尽管7月份就业人数继续上升，但就业创造速度自春季以来也大幅放缓，未来几个月似乎还将进一步放缓，因为企业将削减运营能力，以应对需求疲软。需求恶化的另一面是价格压力的缓解，这是受欢迎的，这暗示着通胀将见顶。


Wednesday's announcement of the United States7monthISMNon manufacturingPMIRecorded56.7Higher than market expectations53.5, previous value is55.3.


　　评论称，过去几周，由于节后和季节性因素，餐馆销售情况有所放缓，但我们也听到了有关消费者压力，尤其是燃料和食品价格的影响。人员配备在部分市场仍然是一个挑战。利率对房屋建筑市场产生了重大影响。由于购房者无法再支付月供，取消房款的比率有所上升。通货膨胀使许多潜在买家望而却步。


　　分析称，美国服务业7The month unexpectedly rebounded due to strong order growth, as well as easing supply bottlenecks and price pressures, supporting the view that the economy has not fallen into recession(Despite a decline in output in the first half of the year)。在这意外反弹之前，美国供应管理协会(ISM)周一公布的制造业调查显示，上月工厂活动温和放缓。这与标普全球7月份服务业萎缩的调查结果形成鲜明对比。库存的剧烈波动和与混乱的全球供应链相关的贸易逆差是主要原因。不过，随着美联储大幅收紧货币政策以抗击通胀，整体经济增长势头有所降温，但服务业活动正受到从商品支出转向服务业支出的支持。


　　美联储官员卡什卡利表示，可能需要几年时间才能将通胀率恢复到2%。现有的最佳数据表明，通胀预期仍处于稳定状态。更可能的情况是我们提高利率，然后维持不变。美联储明年降息的可能性非常小。工资在上涨；风险在于会发生工资导致通胀上涨的事情。


　　美联储官员戴丽表示，如果我们看到通胀一直飙升，那么加息75个基点或许更合适。有很多收紧政策的措施，但还没有看到显示经济放缓的数据。企业在减少职位空缺，而不是集体裁员，这为软着陆增添了希望。现在甚至还没有达到中性利率。不确定将于本周发布的就业数据是否会显示招聘放缓，对工人的需求仍然超过供应。随着经济放缓，预计失业率将略有上升。将利率维持在高水平的时间可能延长至超过6个月，甚至是一年。不认为我们应该快速大幅提高利率，然后在几个月后再降低利率，这对家庭和企业来说将是艰难的。不认为从现在开始加息是“限制性的”，认为在下次会议上利率的下限将更有可能达到3%Instead of2.5%。乐观地认为，我们可以通过不引发严重衰退的利率路径来降低通胀。认为在年底达到3.4%的利率对我们来说是一个合理的水平。


Federal Reserve official Barkin stated that in the9Monthly interest rate increase50个基点是合理的。预计通胀会下降，但不会立即下降。对衰退的担忧与每月近40万人的就业增长和3.6%的低失业率有点不一致。


Wells Fargo Bank analyzed that the United States7monthISM服务业指数意外上升，暗示尽管衰退担忧加剧，但经济仍保持良好。新订单加速显示服务业仍处于良好状态，这与消费者正在满足今年夏季被压抑的服务需求的观点相符。美国家庭继续在服务方面支出，储蓄率处于2008年金融危机以来的最低水平。消费的持久力最终将耗尽，但7monthISM服务业数据进一步支持了我们的观点，即服务业活动将在近期保持良好势头。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day2.32Tons, current position is1000.65Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is58.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is41.5%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is30.2%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is49.7%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is10.2%。


Today's Focus:


　　16:00欧洲央行公布经济公报


　　19:00Bank of England Announces Interest Rate Resolutions and Meeting Minutes


　　19:30U.S.A7Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs


　　19:30Bank of England Governor Bailey Holds a Press Conference


　　20:30From the United States to7month30Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A6Monthly trade account


　　22:00U.S.A7New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index


　　24:00美联储梅斯特就货币政策发表讲话


Technical analysis of gold:


　　随着日线的探高收低，日内短线还会延续走震荡，由于此前连阳上升之后，首次转阴，这波转阴是结束反弹还是回踩蓄势后重新反转向上有待确认。还需要多加几个交易日的收盘情况来决定。4小时完成了ABC浪的反弹，这是下跌趋势中的反弹小三浪，昨日形成冲高回落，C浪高点回撤，日内回踩会接近上升趋势线，也就是4小时的多头支撑线，两个上涨浪形反弹，使得短线走多，日内此根上升线是关键，此前离得比较远，不好判定，随着昨日的冲高回落，日内亚盘就会逼近上升线，若是失守且收盘在趋势线之下，则趋势重新转空，反之下探后能够启稳，那么短线还将继续延伸反弹。并且存在反转向上的可能。均线指标来看，昨日触及到了270单位均线承压，目前中期均线还在大周期均线之下，这也是昨日强调在1786上方价格有较大的冲高回落风险。今日短线相对就比较分化，随着昨日的回落，小时图还会适当延续，综上所述，黄金今日思路上指南金师建议以区间震荡为主，上方短期关注1778-1783Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1752-1747Frontline support.


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