Guide Metallographer:8.4今日黄金走势分析，黄金上行步伐料受牵制

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Wednesday(8month3day)，现货黄金上浮，因美元指数回调，但金价后市上行步伐可能受到牵制。美联储官员此前谈论了进一步大幅加息的可能性，暗示市场勿低估美联储抗通胀决心，美元料开启新的涨势。


　　美联储保持团结


　　一些美联储官员周二(8month2day)Expressed that the decision-making level remains firm and "united" and will not relax in order to suppress1980The tightening policy of the highest level of inflation since the s, although it will bring interest rates to a level that significantly suppresses economic activity. The US dollar index closed sharply higher overnight0.9%，远离盘中创出的7month4Daily low point105.034。


　　芝加哥联储主席埃文斯表示，在过去两次会议上以异常大的幅度加息后，他希望央行能够在今年剩余时间内放慢加息步伐。但他不排除在9month20Solstice21日的美联储下次会议上再次超大规模加息的可能性。


　　埃文斯指出：“经济衰退是不健康的，如此高的通货膨胀也不正常。如果未来几个月通胀没有改善，我们可能不得不重新考虑提高利率路径。”


　　旧金山联储主席戴利表示，美联储还有很多工作要做，这意味着更高的利率，“人们仍在为更多支出和不断上涨的价格而苦苦挣扎。六个月前还能轻松应付的价格现在对不少人而言已经是不堪重负，这意味着我们的工作还远未完成。”


　　戴利正在关注即将出炉的数据，以决定美联储是可以放缓加息步伐，还是继续保持目前的速度。“过于自信地认为我们已经解决了问题将是一个错误，我的预测是，我们会提高利率，并维持一段时间。”


　　澳洲联邦银行策略师Kristina Clifton在给客户的研报中表示：“通常非常鸽派的戴利”和“同样非常鸽派的埃文斯”发表鹰派言论，利好美元，美元指数可能“在未来几周内”突破108Gateway.


　　CME“联储观察”工具的最新数据显示，美联储在9月政策会议上再度加息75个基点的可能性从此前的不到30%回升到约44%。很明显，美联储官员认为市场参与者在降低加息预期方面走得太远了，他们发表的鹰派言论立即产生了影响。


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日先扬后抑，尾盘形成探高回落收低，亚欧盘开盘的上涨主要是延续了前一日的尾盘整理蓄势。惯性冲高之后，触及到了此前的下跌破低口阻力以及黄金分割点0.618.0Resistance in1786-1790一带形成压制，昨日放量之后，美盘时段承压。尾盘再回落收低，这也是昨日强调短线冲高后谨防冲高回落。随着日线的探高收低，今日短线还会延续走回落，同时也是争夺一个方向选择的问题，由于此前连阳上升之后，首次转阴，这波转阴是结束反弹还是回踩蓄势后重新反转向上有待确认。还需要多加几个交易日的收盘情况来决定。


Gold4小时完成了ABC浪的反弹，这是下跌趋势中的反弹小三浪，昨日形成冲高回落，C浪高点回撤，今日回踩会接近上升趋势线，也就是4小时的多头支撑线，两个上涨浪形反弹，使得短线走多，今日此根上升线是关键，此前离得比较远，不好判定，随着昨日的冲高回落，今日亚盘就会逼近上升线，若是失守且收盘在趋势线之下，则趋势重新转空，反之下探后能够启稳，那么短线还将继续延伸反弹。并且存在反转向上的可能。均线指标来看，昨日触及到了270单位均线承压，目前中期均线还在大周期均线之下，这也是昨日强调在1786上方价格有较大的冲高回落风险。今日短线相对就比较分化，随着昨日的回落，小时图还会适当延续，不过4小时要关注上升趋势线1746-1743附近的防守。亚盘触及后可能会有反弹，但能否启稳还要等到欧美盘之后再来确认。反应到短线操作上，多空都有操作机会。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹做空为主，回踩低多为辅，上方短期关注1778-1783Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1754-1749Frontline support.

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