Guide Metallographer:8.3今日黄金走势分析，美联储加息预期重燃

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　美联储官员美斯特表示，预测经济增长低于趋势可能持续到明年。美国经济增长低于预期是稳定物价所必需的。美国经济增长低于趋势不是坏结果。美联储不太可能在不损害就业的情况下调整利率。还没有任何迹象表明通胀正在趋于平稳。需要几个月的证据来证明通胀已经见顶，然后下降。还有更多的工作要做，因为通胀没有出现好转。很可能看到就业需求放缓，但失业人数不会大幅上升。开始看到投资、消费者支出和住房市场增长的放缓。通常情况下，这是伴随着疲软的劳动力市场而发生的，但劳动力市场仍然非常强劲。不认为我们正处于经济衰退中。


　　圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，美联储或许能够在不引发美国经济衰退的情况下减缓通胀。随着时间的推移，美联储在其抑制物价上涨的能力方面建立了信誉，这与上世纪70年代形成了鲜明对比。这增加了成功降低物价、同时将经济受损程度降至最低的可能性。美联储和欧洲央行或许能够实现相对软着陆。美联储和欧洲央行或许能够以有序的方式抑制通胀。希望年底前政策利率达到3.75％-4%.


　　美联储官员埃文斯表示，有可能实现软着陆，但风险很大。随着经济增长接近(expect)趋势，失业率将保持在4.5%以下。失业率上升到4.25%并不奇怪。认为在2023年第二季度前，利率达到3.75%-4%已经足够高了。仍然希望我们能在9Monthly interest rate increase50个基点，然后以25个基点的加息步伐继续，直到2023年第二季度初。加息75个基点也是可以的；我怀疑是否需要加息100Basis points.


　　美联储官员戴丽表示，预计美国经济将放缓。认为我们会继续提高利率，并维持一段时间。将根据未来的数据来决定我们是否可以放慢加息步伐，还是继续保持目前的速度。汽油价格的下降将带来一些缓解，房地产市场放缓也是一个好迹象。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day2.9Tons, current position is1002.97Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is58.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is41.5%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is44.1%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is45.7%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is10.2%。


Today's Focus:


　　14:00Germany6Monthly and quarterly trade accounts adjustment


　　14:30Switzerland7monthCPIMonthly rate


　　15:50France7Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　15:55Germany7Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　16:00eurozone7Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　16:30britain7Monthly service industryPMI


　　17:00eurozone6monthPPIMonthly rate


　　17:00eurozone6Monthly retail sales rate


　　21:45U.S.A7monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value


　　22:00U.S.A7monthISMNon manufacturingPMI


　　22:00U.S.A6Monthly factory order rate


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日先扬后抑，尾盘形成探高回落收低，亚欧盘开盘的上涨主要是延续了前一日的尾盘整理蓄势。惯性冲高之后，触及到了此前的下跌破低口阻力以及黄金分割点0.618.0Resistance in1786-1790一带形成压制，昨日放量之后，美盘时段承压。尾盘再回落收低，这也是昨日强调短线冲高后谨防冲高回落。随着日线的探高收低，今日短线还会延续走回落，同时也是争夺一个方向选择的问题，由于此前连阳上升之后，首次转阴，这波转阴是结束反弹还是回踩蓄势后重新反转向上有待确认。还需要多加几个交易日的收盘情况来决定。


Gold4小时完成了ABC浪的反弹，这是下跌趋势中的反弹小三浪，昨日形成冲高回落，C浪高点回撤，今日回踩会接近上升趋势线，也就是4小时的多头支撑线，两个上涨浪形反弹，使得短线走多，今日此根上升线是关键，此前离得比较远，不好判定，随着昨日的冲高回落，今日亚盘就会逼近上升线，若是失守且收盘在趋势线之下，则趋势重新转空，反之下探后能够启稳，那么短线还将继续延伸反弹。并且存在反转向上的可能。均线指标来看，昨日触及到了270单位均线承压，目前中期均线还在大周期均线之下，这也是昨日强调在1786上方价格有较大的冲高回落风险。今日短线相对就比较分化，随着昨日的回落，小时图还会适当延续，不过4小时要关注上升趋势线1746-1743附近的防守。亚盘触及后可能会有反弹，但能否启稳还要等到欧美盘之后再来确认。反应到短线操作上，多空都有操作机会。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹做空为主，回踩低多为辅，上方短期关注1778-1783Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1754-1749Frontline support.


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