Guide Metallographer:8.1窜访成为焦点，黄金能否受益继续上涨？

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　上周随着美联储7Monthly interest rate increase75基点落地后，美国GDP数据出现下滑暗示经济陷入技术性衰退，投资者开始将焦点转向9月加息幅度，市场统计美联储到9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is73.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is26.5%，随着美国二季度GDP出现下滑后，对未来强势加息预期可能会放缓。美元因加息幅度放缓预期从而存在调整，期间金银存在持续反弹。


　　上周公布了法国、德国和欧洲GDP二季度数据，结果显示出现不同程度的下滑，法国第二季度GDP年率初值结果显示为4.2%, lower than the previous value4.8%；德国第二季度GDP年率初值结果显示为1.5%, lower than the previous value3.9%And expected values1.8%，欧洲第二季度GDP年率初值结果显示为4%, lower than the previous value5.4%。在全球经济陷入衰退和能源价格不断上涨的双重利空之下，欧洲经济也很难独善其中，短时间内能源价格拐点未出现，通胀拐点未出现，未来的经济还可能存在下滑。经济衰退不支持大宗商品走出长牛格局，黄金白银的上涨目前暂时认为是超跌后的反弹。


　　本周最大的数据为周五公布美国非农业就业数据，期间还有美国ISM制造业指数以及6月贸易帐数据值得关注，同时关注澳联储的利率决议和货币政策声明。一起期待非农数据带来的超级大行情。


Today's Focus:


　　15:50France7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value


　　15:55Germany7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value


　　16:00eurozone7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value


　　16:30britain7Monthly manufacturing industryPMI


　　17:00eurozone6Monthly unemployment rate


　　21:45U.S.A7monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value


　　22:00U.S.A7monthISMmanufacturingPMI


　　22:00U.S.A6Monthly construction expenditure monthly rate


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金上周五白盘短暂震荡后再度回弹，测压至1768On the front line, the market has since rebounded, but currently it remains relatively strong. The main reason for the gold market's strength again within the day is driven by its own bullish sentiment, as well as the momentum brought by the US dollar index's recovery. At the current hourly chart level, gold has shown serious overbought behavior, and the technical trend has completed a short-term three band rise. Although there is still a possibility of further recovery in the weak US index and strong gold technology structure, the momentum for further increase is not expected to be very strong. Above can be followed1770Nearby pressure, we cannot rule out the possibility of a fourth wave or even a fifth wave of recovery in the market, but that trend is also too extreme and approaching our previous expectations above1770-80Strong pressure band, so the space for upward movement is also limited. Stay tuned below1750Consider this position as a turning point for the market to remain strong or turn weak in the near competition.


Gold4The hour chart is currently inCAmidst the rebound of the waves,AWave low point1680Make a wave of rebound,BWave low point1711Make it a rising point, this level is the critical point for the bullish rebound, extending above this level and breaking through1752It's the second highest point, breaking the previous record4The weak decline at the hourly level has driven the gold cross upwards with the current moving average indicator,K线形态短线连阳上扬配合小阴线回踩修正，正突破之际，短线走得相对还是强势，且回踩的空间略小，小周期形态小级别的多头强势，以横向整理代替反弹。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1775-1780Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1752-1747Frontline support.


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