Yu Yue on Jin:8.1Analysis of the long and short price trend of gold in the US market with the release of gold short positions...

goldMarket trend analysis;



Monday(8month1day)In the European market, the US dollar index continued to be under pressure, and the index is currently reporting105.65Nearby. Spot gold suddenly surged in the short term, and currently the gold price has risen to1770Nearby USD/Near the ounce. the United States10The yield of one-year treasury bond bonds fell slightly from the low point of nearly four months, which limited the rise of gold price. But the US dollar index is still far from the previous trading day's record7month5Daily low point105.531Not far. The US economy is experiencing a technical recession, and previous statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicate that the Fed has lost momentum for aggressive interest rate hikes. In addition, the US dollar7The month end consolidation may also be the reason for the rebound in gold prices. Believe that; The most relied upon inflation indicator by the Federal Reserve - core personal consumption expenditure in the United States(PCE)Price Index - in6Monthly year-on-year increase4.8%, higher than the previous value4.7%The upcoming release of the United States7The monthly non farm employment data may perform poorly, and the gold price will continue to rise in the future.



　　黄金技术面分析；黄金上周周线中阳线收高，延续了此前的底部反弹修正，周线形成双连阳的反弹，本周是第三周的修正时间，周线的收盘决定后市强弱转换，弱势修正不过三。过了周线就会反转走震荡。日线局部伴随了底部回升，且三连阳的强势反扑。带动短期均线金叉向上。日线有进一步反弹空间，而随着上周的持续性反弹放量，本周进入上有阻力，下有支撑的多空决择阶段。是反弹之后重新转跌还是强势反转？得结合本周的周线收盘来决定，日线目前三连阳之后，今日短线惯性探高之后会伴随回撤。



　　4Hour from1680Bottom formationAWave rebounds toBThe wave peak is at1739.24.Step back again1711Stable formationCWave rebound. currentlycThe rebound space of the waves has been released, and locally speaking, there will be a need to choose a new direction this week. With the release of rebound wave space. Whether the market will turn downwards or upwards again in the future, the short-term trend needs to be re determined. currently4The upward trend line of the small-scale rebound and upward channel in the hourly chart is supported by1736.Due to the formation of a bullish rebound channel in a small cycle, the market needs to break below the support line of the upward channel in order to turn downward again. Therefore, this trend line is also the boundary point between long and short positions. At the beginning of the week, it was temporarily operating above the upward trend line, and in the short term, it is expected to maintain a rebound and move upwards. Break through and adjust your mindset. In summary, it is recommended to focus on long positions during the pullback and short positions during the rebound as a secondary strategy for gold operations today. Short term attention should be paid above1780-1785Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1755-1750Frontline support.



　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;



Monday(8month1day)International oil prices under pressure, Asia region7Weak manufacturing data for the month has dampened the outlook for energy demand. However, the upcoming meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners this week(OPEC+)Meeting not ruled out9Keeping production unchanged in the month limits the potential for a pullback in oil prices. Earlier released data showed that Japan7Monthly Manufacturing Activities10The lowest rate of expansion in the past six months indicates that the prospect of Asia's recovery from the blockade of the COVID-19 epidemic may not be as positive as previously expected, which makes the prospect of crude oil market demand bleak2020For the first time since the beginning of the year, there has been a second consecutive month of decline, as soaring inflation and rising interest rates have raised concerns about an economic recession, sales of automotive fuel are decreasing, and gasoline demand remains below the average level of the same period in previous years.OPEC+Scheduled for this Wednesday(8month3day)meeting Although the United States has repeatedly called on oil producing countries to increase production, the group does not rule out the possibility of9Keep oil production unchanged for the month.OPEC+At present, the record production reduction measures implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic have been completely lifted. Overall, concerns about an economic recession are heating up, and the market is focusing on this weekOPEC+The meeting and the expectation that the organization will soon increase supply have weakened, putting pressure on oil prices; But geopolitical tensions continue to provide support for oil prices.



　　原油技术面分析；原油上周五探高回落收平十字KLine, daily line locally enters contraction, tug of war oscillation, solidKThe line is small, forming a continuous starKLine consolidation, local long and short positions are stuck in a stalemate. Although there was a brief surge last Friday, it was still under pressure and closed at a low level in the late trading session, resulting in insufficient long and short positions and a prolonged period of saw and saw oscillation.4The hourly chart shows a high pressure drop at the middle track and a pressure drop from the upper track,KThe line structure forms a high-level vomiting pattern of yin and yang, and the rebound is only a flash in the pan. After being slightly compressed at the upper track, it fell back and approached the lower track, combined with last Friday's high point102.0Accompanied by the upper shadow line, short-term operations within the day102.0Choose the opportunity to be bearish below, and continue to look at the testing neckline below. This week's neckline92.80It is still a testing point, breaking down to open up space, continuing to oscillate without breaking, and currently there is still a long way to go from the neck line. At the beginning of the week, I still had a fluctuating mindset. The upper track is empty, while the lower track is much shorter. Dealing with short-term fluctuations. In summary, it is recommended to pay short-term attention to the operation strategy of crude oil today98.5-99.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below94.0-93.0Frontline support.