Guide Metallographer:8.1Analysis of today's gold trend

　　goldMessage interpretation:


The United States announced on Friday6月个人支出月率录得1.1%Higher than market expectations0.9%； U.S.A6Monthly CorePCEPrice index annual rate recorded4.8%Higher than market expectations4.7%。 U.S.A6Monthly CorePCEMonthly rate of price index recorded0.6%Higher than market expectations0.5%。


　　评论称，因就业市场趋紧继续提振薪资增长，美国第二季劳动力成本强劲上升，这可能令通胀在一段时间内保持在高位。政策制定者和经济学家普遍认为，由于美国第二季度劳工成本指数季率和劳工就业工资季率会根据构成和就业质量变化进行调整，因此是衡量劳动力市场疲弱程度的较好指标之一，能预测核心通胀。在经济学家和投资者试图判断美联储加息步伐之际，这一数据正受到密切关注，以寻找工资增长是否已经见顶的迹象。有关工资的信号好坏参半。今年上半年，美国劳工部月度就业报告显示，平均时薪的年增长率有所放缓，而亚特兰大联邦储备银行的工资跟踪指数则有所加快。美联储本月发布的“褐皮书”报告显示，“大多数地区的工资继续增长”，“四分之一的地区表示，未来六个月工资增长将保持在较高水平”。到五月底，有1130万个职位空缺，几乎每两个空缺职位对应一个失业人员。


The United States announced on Friday7月密西根大学消费者信心指数终值录得51.5Higher than market expectations51.1, previous value is51.1.


　　评论称，本月预期指数从6Of47.5lower47.3, for1980年以来最低。当前景气指数从53.8Ascend to58.1，这可能反映出汽油价格下降带来的影响。该调查的主管Hsu表示，随着高物价的持续，消费者正在寻求改变消费模式，未来，可能还会有更多类似的变化。


　　美联储官员卡什卡利表示，美国目前没有处于薪资-物价螺旋。美国经济距离2%的通胀“还有很长的路要走”。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is73.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is26.5%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is73.5%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is26.5%。


Today's Focus:


　　15:50France7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value


　　15:55Germany7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value


　　16:00eurozone7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value


　　16:30britain7Monthly manufacturing industryPMI


　　17:00eurozone6Monthly unemployment rate


　　21:45U.S.A7monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value


　　22:00U.S.A7monthISMmanufacturingPMI


　　22:00U.S.A6Monthly construction expenditure monthly rate


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金上周五白盘短暂震荡后再度回弹，测压至1768On the front line, the market has since rebounded, but currently it remains relatively strong. The main reason for the gold market's strength again within the day is driven by its own bullish sentiment, as well as the momentum brought by the US dollar index's recovery. At the current hourly chart level, gold has shown serious overbought behavior, and the technical trend has completed a short-term three band rise. Although there is still a possibility of further recovery in the weak US index and strong gold technology structure, the momentum for further increase is not expected to be very strong. Above can be followed1770Nearby pressure, we cannot rule out the possibility of a fourth wave or even a fifth wave of recovery in the market, but that trend is also too extreme and approaching our previous expectations above1770-80Strong pressure band, so the space for upward movement is also limited. Stay tuned below1750Consider this position as a turning point for the market to remain strong or turn weak in the near competition.


Gold4The hour chart is currently inCAmidst the rebound of the waves,AWave low point1680Make a wave of rebound,BWave low point1711Make it a rising point, this level is the critical point for the bullish rebound, extending above this level and breaking through1752It's the second highest point, breaking the previous record4The weak decline at the hourly level has driven the gold cross upwards with the current moving average indicator,K线形态短线连阳上扬配合小阴线回踩修正，正突破之际，短线走得相对还是强势，且回踩的空间略小，小周期形态小级别的多头强势，以横向整理代替反弹。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1775-1780Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1752-1747Frontline support.


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