Guide Metallographer:7.29今日黄金走势分析，金价还有新高延伸1780

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Interpretation of the Golden News:


Thursday's announcement from the United States to7month23Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week25.610000 people, higher than market expectations25.3万人；美国第二季度实际GDPRecorded initial value of annualized quarterly rate-0.9%, lower than market expectations0.5%；美国第二季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值录得4.4%, lower than market expectations4.5%；美国第二季度实际个人消费支出季率初值录得1%, lower than market expectations1.2%。


　　评论称，GDP连续第二个季度下降符合技术性衰退的标准定义。但美国经济衰退的官方仲裁机构——国家经济研究局将衰退定义为“经济活动在整个经济中持续数月以上的显著下降，通常在生产、就业、实际收入和其他指标中可见。”今年上半年，每月平均就业增长45.67万，这带来了强劲的工资增长，但是，经济下滑的风险已经增加。近几个月来，房屋建设和房屋销售疲软，企业和消费者信心也有所减弱。美国经济连续第二个季度萎缩，加大了经济衰退的可能性，数十年来的高通胀削弱了消费者支出，而美联储加息削弱了企业投资和住房需求。美国商务部周四公布的初步估计数据显示，美国国内生产总值年率化下降0.9%，今年前三个月的降幅为1.6%。作为经济最大组成部分的个人消费以1%的速度增长，较前一时期有所放缓。该报告的细节显示，企业和政府支出以及住宅投资都有所下降，库存也拖累了GDP。这份报告显示，通胀削弱了美国人的购买力，美联储收紧货币政策削弱了房地产等对利率敏感的行业。这种疲软可能会加剧有关美国是否或何时进入衰退的本已激烈的辩论。


　　美国财长耶伦表示，正在从快速复苏阶段过渡到在不牺牲收益的情况下实现稳定、可持续的增长。确实看到经济增长明显放缓。从疫情中迅速恢复后，美国增长放缓是在预期之中的。美国家庭感到的不安与就业市场无关，对信心造成最大负担的是通胀。可以看到劳动力市场的压力有所缓解，仍然可以看到劳动力市场在充分就业状态下运行。有迹象表明，未来几天通胀可能会下降。第二季度GDP的收缩表明经济正在转向更可持续的增长。


　　美国总统拜登发表讲话表示，美国没有陷入衰退，就业市场处于历史最强劲的时期，消费支出持续增长。拜登指出随着美联储采取行动降低通胀，经济放缓并不奇怪，现在经济计划的重点是降低通货膨胀，敦促芯片法案通过。


　　世界黄金协会表示，尽管二季度表现疲软，但一季度黄金ETF的强势流入仍推动了上半年黄金需求的明显复苏。二季度全球黄金需求总量(不含场外交易)by948吨，较去年同比减少8%；但2022First half of the year2189吨的需求总量同比增幅达12%。随着二季度金价下跌，全球黄金ETF流出39吨，抵消了部分一季度的强势流入。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is74%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is26%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase50The probability of a basis point is25.2%Accumulated interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is57.6%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is17.1%。


Today's Focus:


　　13:30France Q2GDPAnnual rate initial value


　　14:30Switzerland6Monthly actual retail sales annual rate


　　14:45France7monthCPIMonthly rate


　　15:00Switzerland7monthKOFEconomic leading indicators


　　15:55Germany7Number of unemployed people after quarterly adjustment


　　15:55Germany7Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment


　　16:00Germany Q2 not seasonally adjustedGDPAnnual rate initial value


　　16:30britain6Monthly central bank mortgage loan permit


　　17:00eurozone7monthCPIAnnual rate initial value


　　17:00eurozone7monthCPIMonthly rate


　　17:00Eurozone Q2GDPAnnual rate initial value


　　20:30Canada5monthGDPMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A6Monthly CorePCEAnnual rate of price index


　　20:30U.S.A6Monthly CorePCEMonthly rate of price index


　　20:30U.S.A6Monthly personal expenditure rate


　　21:45U.S.A7Month ChicagoPMI


　　22:00U.S.A7Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日先抑后扬，先行回踩1711First line stabilization and consolidation. In the second half of the night, we will recover the lost land and at the same time adjust the high point at the beginning of the week1739Also virtual break, highest1740.Closing at1735Above. Daily closing with a bullish candlestickKLine. Yesterday, as a key turning point in the short term, was unable to fall back and close lower. Influenced by the news, it brought back the rebound style and closed at a high levelKThe closing trend continued to rebound.4Before the hour chart1680doAWaves rebounded, yesterday at1711Once again stabilizing and rebounding, currently breaking through the high point1739Afterwards, there is a continuationBThe waves rebounded. Structurally, a wave shaped rebound correction has been formed, so yesterday's closing pattern is quite important if it can directly fall and close lower. If the rebound wave shape cannot continue, it will form a weak downward trend in the short term. The reverse trend of closing higher and breaking through the high point is a continuation of the rebound space. At present, after repeated downward explorations and rebounds at the beginning of the week, it has actually driven the short-term moving average to turn downward and form support.4Hourly support1711Construct a rebound channel at a low point. This level is the critical point for bulls, and it will fall below in the future1711Only then can it turn weak again. Short term support within the day1711做防守先行低多看反弹，破位再调整思路，同时在反弹的过程中，遇到阻力也会回踩，短线是震荡思路，低多高空卡区间。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1765-1770Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1740-1735Frontline support.


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