Guide Metallographer:7.28黄金走势分析，美联储加息在即是涨是跌？

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Interpretation of the Golden News:


　　黄金价格连续多个交易日，反弹遇阻回落，指南金师认为，这主要因美联储利率决议临近，市场开始趋于谨慎，黄金多头有所顾忌，另外美元反弹也给金价带来一些压力，不过黄金回落幅度有限，金价站稳日线10日均线，因地缘局势依旧紧张，市场对经济衰退的担忧挥之不去，给金价提供一些支撑。


　　晚间美联储利率决议，市场将迎来多空大战，此前市场预计美联储7Monthly interest rate hike100个基点的概率高达80%，不过这种可能性在近期已经大幅下降，市场开始普遍认为美联储将会加息75个基点。由于美联储依旧大幅加息75个基点，利率决议偏向鹰派的可能性将会更大一些，不过由于市场已经充分消化美联储加息75个基点的预期，投资者更应该关注的是今年剩余时间的加息安排。


　　如果美联储本次加息之后，开始为9Monthly interest rate hike50个基点或者是75个基点做铺垫，金价短线存在进一步下行的风险，尤其是如果9May raise interest rates in the month75个基点，金价将面临较大麻烦，可能再次试探最近两年低点1676美元，如果美联储淡化7Monthly interest rate hike75个基点的预期，金价将获得反弹的机会。此外，我们还需要关注美联储对待经济衰退的观点与态度，如果多次提到经济衰退，也可能为黄金提供反弹的机会。


Today's Focus Data:


　　09:30Australia Q2CPIthe annual rate


　　14:00Germany8monthGfkConsumer confidence index


　　16:00Switzerland7monthZEWInvestor confidence index


　　20:30U.S.A6Monthly rate of durable goods orders


　　22:00U.S.A6Monthly rate of contracted sales index for completed housing


The next day02:00Federal ReserveFOMCAnnounce interest rate resolutions and policy statements


The next day02:30美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日如预期陷入震荡，上方回弹测压至1728一线后承压回落，低点跌回至1713附近，随后持续于1720-15区间窄幅震荡，日线收得一小阴星线日线结构上，黄金连续两日收小阴线，虽然未跌回5、10日线下，但上方20日线压力也始终未能触及，这就使得短线结构重心有所下移倾向，行情可能会再出现一波回撤风险。鉴于明凌晨美联储利率决定公布，市场情绪高度谨慎紧张，观望情绪也非常浓，故日内黄金大概率还是会围绕5、10日线进行震荡，但从现有技术状态以及市场对美联储加息75个基点的预期来看，黄金可能会更偏向于再下破一次5、10日线，找稳下方支撑后再进行技术性回弹，且此回弹也还得建立在美指承压基础上。


　　小时图上，黄金两度回撤至预期支撑1715-13区域，虽然支撑有效，但是表现出的上涨欲望却不是很强，且此前上方也并未触及预期的压力位，小时图技术结构也呈现下倾状态，虽然整体偏向横盘，但均线交叉向下，短线结构重心有所下移，一定程度上会加大行情下破一次的风险。日内黄金下方继续还是关注1713-10区间下沿支撑，做好可能跌破此支撑的心理预期，但是考虑到明凌晨美联储利率决定的影响，日内对于看空也停留在看，莫要伸手参与，日内的操作风险还是非常大的，综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1730-1735Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1710-1705Frontline support.


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