Guide Metallographer:7.27今日黄金走势分析，黄金市场静待FED决议

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　美元指数低位企稳大幅反弹，收报106.87附近，黄金高位承压回落至1714.0附近，美联储利率决议前，市场预期7Monthly interest rate hike75点概率较大，利多美元、利空黄金，美元指数触底企稳反弹，黄金走势承压下行。


　　全球最大的ETFPosition data shows that gold7month25dayETFDecline in position0.58吨，总库存为1005.29吨。白银7month25dayETFDecline in position43.02吨，总库存为15523.8吨。金银ETF持仓数据依旧处于减持趋势当中，自5月份以来，主力资金依旧减仓为主，并未有过连续加仓动作，表明主力资金依然看空金银市场。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is77.5%Interest rate hike100The probability of a basis point is22.5%。美联储正在密切关注即将到来二季度数据，以寻找通胀终于开始回落的信号，但它已承诺在通胀大幅降低至美联储设定的2%目标之前不会放松其货币政策收紧。历史表明，通胀涨到头后美联储才会停止加息，但这还不是全部，美联储不会匆忙停止加息还有其他理由：6monthCPIYear-on-year increase9.1%，此外，申领失业金人数从历史低位小幅上升可能不足以让美联储宣布使命已经完成短线黄金恐继续承压。但是周四重磅利率决议会议来临前，市场或将继续保持观望情绪，黄金恐将继续维持震荡格局，投资者需要留意市场对加息预期的变化。


Today's Focus Data:


　　09:30Australia Q2CPIthe annual rate


　　14:00Germany8monthGfkConsumer confidence index


　　16:00Switzerland7monthZEWInvestor confidence index


　　20:30U.S.A6Monthly rate of durable goods orders


　　22:00U.S.A6Monthly rate of contracted sales index for completed housing


The next day02:00Federal ReserveFOMCAnnounce interest rate resolutions and policy statements


The next day02:30美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日如预期陷入震荡，上方回弹测压至1728一线后承压回落，低点跌回至1713附近，随后持续于1720-15区间窄幅震荡，日线收得一小阴星线日线结构上，黄金连续两日收小阴线，虽然未跌回5、10日线下，但上方20日线压力也始终未能触及，这就使得短线结构重心有所下移倾向，行情可能会再出现一波回撤风险。鉴于明凌晨美联储利率决定公布，市场情绪高度谨慎紧张，观望情绪也非常浓，故日内黄金大概率还是会围绕5、10日线进行震荡，但从现有技术状态以及市场对美联储加息75个基点的预期来看，黄金可能会更偏向于再下破一次5、10日线，找稳下方支撑后再进行技术性回弹，且此回弹也还得建立在美指承压基础上。


　　小时图上，黄金两度回撤至预期支撑1715-13区域，虽然支撑有效，但是表现出的上涨欲望却不是很强，且此前上方也并未触及预期的压力位，小时图技术结构也呈现下倾状态，虽然整体偏向横盘，但均线交叉向下，短线结构重心有所下移，一定程度上会加大行情下破一次的风险。日内黄金下方继续还是关注1713-10区间下沿支撑，做好可能跌破此支撑的心理预期，但是考虑到明凌晨美联储利率决定的影响，日内对于看空也停留在看，莫要伸手参与，日内的操作风险还是非常大的，综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1730-1735Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1710-1705Frontline support.


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