Guide Metallographer:7.26美国经济正在放缓，英国工业产出疲软

　　goldMessage interpretation:


According toCMEFederal Reserve observation shows that the Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is approximately75%Interest rate hike100The probability of a basis point is25%。人们普遍预计，美联储将在周三的政策会议结束后将利率提高75个基点，这样幅度的加息将结束美联储在对当前美国经济的支持。与此同时，近期公布的各项数据也显示出了美国经济放缓的迹象。这也进一步使得市场对于美国经济前景的担忧情绪升温。当前美国国债收益率依旧呈现“倒挂”，且市场普遍认为受到美国经济放缓的影响，这一现象或难以在短期内得到改变。这也使得近日美元指数持续回落，限制了黄金的下行空间。


　　此外，昨日公布了英国截至7月的三个月工业产出数据。根据数据显示，尽管通胀压力有所缓解，且投资有所回暖，但英国近三个月工业产出增长速度依旧为一年多来最低水平。英国工业联盟(CBI)表示，其工业趋势调查中的产出差值从4Of19lower7Of6Yes2021year4月止三个月以来的最低值，但略高于长期均值2。英国央行警告说，由于消费者面临40年来最严重的通胀，而且许多企业利润率受到挤压，今明两年经济可能会放缓。


　　时间、数据及事件


　　18:00britain7monthCBIRetail sales difference


　　21:00U.S.A5monthFHFAMonthly rate of housing price index


　　21:00U.S.A5monthS&P/CS20Annual rate of housing price index in major cities


　　22:00U.S.A6Annualized total monthly sales of new homes


　　22:00U.S.A7Monthly Conference Chamber Consumer Confidence Index


　　22:00U.S.A7Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日承压回落，先扬后抑，先行摸高1736.08dollar|盎司。探高不破上周五的高点，最终承压走回落且收在低位，收回1720之下。日线收盘一根小阴K线，日线伴随双阳反弹之后转阴回落，弱势反弹不过三，也就是反弹的持续性不足。属于弱势修正的手法，随着反复的摸高回落已带动日线中轨的压力由1746慢慢下移至1741.50.昨日首次转换回落，今明两日若能进一步收低，那么下方1700就再难守住，经过反弹修正后的再下跌，反弹是为了蓄势破低。目前正处于修正蓄势阶段，节奏上可能相对缓慢，反映到日内短线就是迂回反复。4小时处于反弹修正确认高点当中，首个阻力目前在1739-1736一带有所压制，下一个阻力则是1746-1752一带。结合浪形的反弹空间，目前在构造高点，是在1739此处承压后转换下跌，还是再伴随一个小冲高后承压下跌，周初在确认阻力区域。后市看跌依旧，只是这波反弹的终结在哪里的问题，单从4小时来看不算明显。日线方向有初步承压之迹象。1小时图二次探高承压，没有进一步破高延续反弹，小时图有所压制成功，今日若能进一步走低，则下一目标就是1700下方，考虑到日线第三个交易日领先转跌，今日操作思路维持高空波段看回1700下方。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议上方短期关注1735-1740Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1710-1705Frontline support.


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