Guide Metallographer:7.26国际金价延续区间震荡，FED鹰派或收敛

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Interpretation of the Golden News:


Tuesday(7month26day)，国际金价上涨，因美元指数继续承压，但由于投资者避免在美联储大幅加息之前大举押注，金价仍运行在窄幅震荡区间。利率上升增加了持有非孳息资产黄金的机会成本。


　　如果美联储因担心经济衰退而开始缩减其鹰派加息路径，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力将回潮。但美元在最近两个交易日止跌，受益于投资者在看到一些疲弱的数据后退出股市。


　　DailyFXforeign exchangeStrategistIlya Spivak表示：“我们尚未真正看到大量坚定看多或看空仓位，现在最重要的是等待美联储政策声明。不过，过去两周美元回落金价企稳反弹，这表明投资者对他们预期的利率前景走势感到满意。”


　　人们普遍预计，美联储将在周三(7month27day)政策会议结束时提升联邦基金利率区间75个基点。如此大幅度的加息将有效终结大流行时期对经济的支持措施。


　　此前公布的美国6月份消费者价格指数同比上涨9.1%, creating over40年来新高，市场一度预计美联储本月加息100个基点。然而，随后公布的一些经济数据表现疲软，交易员们下调了上述预期。


USD6月份以来大幅升至，导致美国出口业务大幅下降，企业盈利下滑，首次申请失业救济人数已达到7Month high251000人。在科技巨头谷歌暂停招聘后，Meta、Spotify和其他科技巨头都支持裁员。这可能导致美国7月非农就业数据疲软。


　　同样，沃尔玛大幅下调利润预期以及对未来消费者支出减少的担忧是助长避险情绪的额外催化剂。此外，全球评级巨头穆迪下调欧洲和美国增长预测，对风险偏好造成额外负担。这些都将利好金价。


　　与此同时，拉脱维亚央行行长Martins Kazaks在接受彭博新闻社采访时表示，欧洲央行可能不会在上周超预期加息50个基点后结束大幅加息。


　　道明证券的分析师认为，机构洗盘将是黄金空头回补最明显的驱动力，金价需要站稳1775美元上方才能扭转市场看空心态。“自营交易商持有的巨额头寸仍接近其典型规模的两倍，这表明如果价格回落，黄金市场将面临巨大痛苦。我们还没有看到多头投降，这表明近期反弹随时会消退。”


Today's Focus:


　　18:00britain7monthCBIRetail sales difference


　　21:00U.S.A5monthFHFAMonthly rate of housing price index


　　21:00U.S.A5monthS&P/CS20Annual rate of housing price index in major cities


　　22:00U.S.A6Annualized total monthly sales of new homes


　　22:00U.S.A7Monthly Conference Chamber Consumer Confidence Index


　　22:00U.S.A7Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金上周五收日线级别报一根长上影阳K线，收盘价站上了短期10均线，但同时上影线暗示1739lower*也存在，加之短趋势仍还处于下跌通道，空头趋势不变，反弹只作为一种短期修正，随时容易*打回原形;日线级别短期压力关注1739、1745、1752三处，短期支撑关注1715、1698、1690、1680四处;离宣布加息还有两个交易日时间，直接很快跌破1680概率可能不大，即便下穿了也容易马上快速回抽上行;4小时级别晚间关注小区间1728-1723上下有效得失破位情况，金珩倾向于是向下破位，走加息前的*回测过程，下方留意10均线收盘价，一旦成功处于10日下，则很快会试探中轨1712一线，然后就是1700下方去回补和修正下短期的顶背驰指标，综合来看，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注1736-1745Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1705-1700Frontline support.


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