Guide Metallographer:7.26市场释放悲观预期，黄金市场静待美联储会议

　　goldMessage interpretation:


The United States announced on Monday7Monthly Dallas Fed Business Activity Index Record-22.6, lower than market expectations-22, previous value is-17.7.


　　评论称，前景改善显著，通胀指标正在改善。报告中对化工行业的评论称，在过去的一个月里，对即将到来的经济衰退的担忧有所增加。由于供应链问题持续存在，原材料成本居高不下，以及利率大幅上调，整体商业活动不得不放缓。只是时间的问题。机器制造方面，我们开始看到新订单走向疲软。我们正在为经济进一步放缓做准备，但希望能有最好的结果。此外，广泛的通货膨胀，加上商业活动强劲而招聘困难，造成了一个令人困惑和不确定的环境。


　　穆迪分析，考虑到美联储收紧政策以抑制通胀带来的影响，下调了美国2022-23年的经济增长预期；目前预计2022年美国实际GDPThe growth rate is2.1%，2023Year is1.3%。预计到2023年，美国失业率将从目前3.6%的低水平升至略高于4.0%的水平。美国经济增长明显放缓，但仍有可能避免陷入衰退。美国经济目前的基本面仍然强劲，但宏观经济动荡至少还将持续一年。今年美国的通胀仍将高于目标。到2023年底，需求疲软和供应方面的一些改善将稳步压低美国的通货膨胀。预计美联储将继续采取激进的政策紧缩模式，以防止美国通胀预期上升。


　　贝莱德策略师预计，在美联储本周再次加息75个基点后，市场将出现更多波动。波动将持续直到“美联储在经济增长与通胀之间作出取舍”。预计美联储“在转变态度之前会过分收紧利率，对经济增长造成严重损害”。策略师指出，市场似乎预计美国经济会出现典型的放缓，即增长和通胀都将减弱。这意味着美国通胀数据可能超出预期，并导致市场再次迅速为更高的利率路径定价，还会导致股市再次下跌。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is77.5%Interest rate hike100The probability of a basis point is22.5%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75、100The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is49.6%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is42.3%Interest rate hike175The probability of a basis point is8.1%。


Today's Focus:


　　18:00britain7monthCBIRetail sales difference


　　21:00U.S.A5monthFHFAMonthly rate of housing price index


　　21:00U.S.A5monthS&P/CS20Annual rate of housing price index in major cities


　　22:00U.S.A6Annualized total monthly sales of new homes


　　22:00U.S.A7Monthly Conference Chamber Consumer Confidence Index


　　22:00U.S.A7Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金上周五收日线级别报一根长上影阳K线，收盘价站上了短期10均线，但同时上影线暗示1739lower*也存在，加之短趋势仍还处于下跌通道，空头趋势不变，反弹只作为一种短期修正，随时容易*打回原形;日线级别短期压力关注1739、1745、1752三处，短期支撑关注1715、1698、1690、1680四处;离宣布加息还有两个交易日时间，直接很快跌破1680概率可能不大，即便下穿了也容易马上快速回抽上行;4小时级别晚间关注小区间1728-1723上下有效得失破位情况，金珩倾向于是向下破位，走加息前的*回测过程，下方留意10均线收盘价，一旦成功处于10日下，则很快会试探中轨1712一线，然后就是1700下方去回补和修正下短期的顶背驰指标，综合来看，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注1736-1745Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1705-1700Frontline support.


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