Guide Metallographer:7.25今日黄金走势分析，金价反弹依旧强势

　　goldMessage interpretation:

The United States announced on Friday7monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIInitial value recorded52.3Higher than market expectations52, previous value is52.7； U.S.A7monthMarkitService industryPMIInitial value recorded47, lower than market expectations52.6, previous value is52.7.

　　评论称，7monthPMI初值表明，美国经济正在令人担忧地恶化。排除新冠疫情封锁时期的月份，产出正在以自2009年全球金融危机以来从未见过的速度下降，调查数据显示，GDP折合成年率下降约1%。随着生活成本上涨、利率上升和经济前景日益黯淡，制造业陷入停滞，服务业从疫情中反弹的势头出现逆转。订单减少速度加快，7月份积压工作数量大幅下降，反映出相对于需求增长而言，运营能力过剩，并表明，除非需求复苏，否则未来几个月制造业和服务业的产出将进一步下降。然而，由于企业对未来增长的预期降至大流行初期以来的最低水平，因此人们不认为会出现这样的复苏。相反，企业已经在重新评估他们的生产和劳动力需求，导致就业增长放缓。虽然供应限制仍然存在问题，制约了经济活动，但需求环境的减弱有助于缓解通胀压力。商品和服务的平均价格因此在7月份以较低的速度上涨，以历史标准衡量，通货膨胀率仍然很高，但现在已经降至16个月来的最低水平，在持续的生活成本危机中提供了一些急需的好消息。

　　路透分析，美联储将再次加息75个基点。一些鹰派官员倾向加息75个基点，削弱了加息100个基点的预期。联邦基金利率futures的走势显示，加息一个百分点的可能性只有五分之一左右，这与调查结果基本一致。但这已经是几十年来最激进的加息路线，也加剧了人们对经济衰退的担忧。美国未来一年陷入衰退的可能性为40%，两年内陷入衰退的可能性为50%。这一比例较6Of the month25%and40%大幅上升。

　　高盛分析，美联储下周决定利率时，将不会为了对抗通胀而“火力全开”。通胀预期软化、汽油价格下跌，因此预计FOMC近期不会加快加息步伐，且在7月会议上只加息75个基点。换个角度，这次加息100个基点，年内余下3次会议减少加息幅度与这次加息75个基点，年内余下3次会议多加点的效果没有太大区别。

　　荷兰合作银行分析称，预计FOMC将把基准利率上调75Bps to2.25-2.50%。缩表计划保持不变，料8月份缩减475USD100mn/Month,9月份缩减950USD100mn/月。美联储仍低估了通胀的持续性，而且尚未承认美国已经开始出现工资-价格螺旋上升。预计今年剩余时间的每次会议都会加息50个基点，这将使联邦基金利率的目标区间在今年年底前升至3.75-4.00%, higher thanFOMC点阵图预计的3.4%。

　　分析称，美国第二季度经济仍处于危险境地，在美联储加大力度遏制通胀之际，对美国衰退的担忧进一步加剧。机构对经济学家的调查显示，预计美国第二季度GDP年化季率将小幅增长0.5%，而第一季度为下滑1.6%，今年上半年美国的经济表现将是疫情后复苏期间最糟糕的一次。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上可能面临艰难境地，他需要重申让通胀回落到2%的承诺，也需要承认经济失去动能。在经济活动放缓的时候，可能更难听到鹰派的语调。

　　欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，加息只是我们取消特别措施过程中的最新一步。只要有必要，我们就会继续加息，以便在中期将通胀降至我们的目标水平。将评估形势，并根据最新数据决定下一步行动的正确步伐。

　　欧洲央行管委霍尔茨曼表示，如果有迹象显示通胀预期上升，欧洲央行可能不得不承认“轻度衰退”对于稳定物价而言是必要的情况。

According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is79.9%Interest rate hike100The probability of a basis point is20.1%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75、100The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is52.7%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is40.4%Interest rate hike175The probability of a basis point is6.8%。

Today's Focus:

　　16:00 Germany7monthIFOBusiness Prosperity Index

　　18:00 britain7monthCBIIndustrial order difference

　　22:30 U.S.A7Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for the Month

Technical analysis of gold:

　　黄金上周下探回升走反弹修正，周线连阴下挫后，首周反弹收涨，周线收成中阳KFrom the perspective of the line and weekly chart, it is currently in a downward trend of rebound correction, and the combination of continuous negative and negative declines with the rebound correction of the small positive line belongs to the normal correction area. Last week, the daily line first suppressed and then rose, with inertia declining1680After stabilizing nearby, the daily line was corrected with two consecutive positive rebounds. Reboot1700上方。上周五尾盘时段一度冲击至1739High, but closing at1720Nearby. Daily Harvest Small Sun Cross with Shadow LineK线。日线进入夹角区间震荡修正，此前连续弱势下跌后，首次连阳反弹，停顿震荡修正，趋势而言，后市依旧看空，目前空间还不足以完成反转。4The rapid rebound of the hour chart, with a downward trend and a sustained cooperation in space, has led to a short-term break from a weak decline and a shift towards a volatile correction4Looking at the hourly chart, the rebound is still in the downward trend, and after a consecutive positive rebound, the market closed lower. The relative rebound space this week will be limited, which may be accompanied by repeated upward pressure and eventually turn into a weak decline. The principle of repeatedly declining. At the beginning of this week, the key is to determine the upper track of the rebound range. Follow first1739And the daily track1746Nearby, rebound today and tomorrow as long as it doesn't recover1746中轨阻力，则后市维持在此位之下继续看空。反弹只是修正而非反转。短线还会反复的走修正后的下探。日内短线操作保持反弹高空。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议上方短期关注1735-1740Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1713-1708Frontline support.

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