Guide Metallographer:7.22今日黄金走势分析，周五回撤仍多

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  Interpretation of Golden News:

Friday(7month22day)，现货黄金反弹受阻，后市依旧看跌，全球主要央行为抑制通胀而大幅加息提高了债券收益率，增加了持有非孳息资产黄金的机会成本。黄金跌势很难被扭转，除非美国财金当局彻底逆转美元升势。

　　隔夜，因欧元上涨施压美元，带动黄金收高。尽管欧元区经济受到俄乌战争的影响，但欧洲央行周四(7month21day)与全球同行一起对抗高通胀——超预期加息50Basis points.

　　风险基调走软为避险黄金提供了一些支撑。在全球经济前景恶化和对衰退的担忧加剧的背景下，股市最近的反弹势头相当迅速地失去了动力。投资者仍然担心，快速上升的利率和俄乌冲突将对全球增长构成挑战，这反过来又抑制了投资者对高风险资产的兴趣。

　　隔夜公布的数据显示，美国周度初请失业金人数升至八个月新高，7月份工厂活动下滑，这是美国经济在强劲利率和通胀压力下放缓的最新迹象。

　　但金价前景依然看跌。美联储将于下周召开政策会议，预计政策制定者将加息75个基点。英国央行行长贝利隔夜发表鹰派言论，表示央行的首要任务是将通胀率降至2%。这也增加了英国央行8Monthly interest rate increase50个基点的可能性，

　　除此之外，俄罗斯恢复通过“北溪一号”管道天然气供应，有助于缓解对可能出现衰退的担忧，并提振了投资者的信心，传统避险资产需求削弱。

　　黄金跌势很难被扭转，除非美国财金当局彻底逆转美元升势。美国财政部可能会突然对美元升值感到恐慌。一旦确信通胀已经好转，美联储还可以迅速降低加息幅度，或讨论宽松计划。但到目前为止，我们还无法预见那一步。

Today's Focus

　　14:00 britain6Monthly retail sales rate after quarterly adjustment

　　15:15 France7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value

　　15:30 Germany7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value

　　16:00 eurozone7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value

　　16:30 britain7Monthly manufacturing and service industryPMI

　　20:30 Canada5Monthly retail sales rate

　　21:45 U.S.A7monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value

　　21:45 U.S.A7monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value

Technical analysis of gold:

　　黄金昨日震荡单边下跌，美盘开盘公布失业金数据小幅利多，这个消息影响还是小的，主要是欧洲央行要加息50个基点！欧洲央行以“鹰派意外”开启11年来首次加息，欧元跳升美指回落，带动黄金上涨，目前美指反转上涨，黄金要看一波下跌，不过下方1680支撑再次试探了，形成了个三底形态，短期内没有强消息面的刺激怕是很难走出下破了，就等28号美联储加息。目前的走势支撑上移到1700一线，上方多空分水岭是越过日线10Daily moving average1725，那么就有望企稳延续涨势。

　　黄金果不其然终是如预期一致企稳年线关键支撑1680开启多头反攻模式，那么空头的虚晃结束，下跌浪型彻底走完，准备迎接多头的开始发力吧，强调了目前的高通胀不是强烈加息这招能直接解决的，黄金的避险属性必将发力，盘面中黄金再度受大量买盘助力企稳1700之上，无疑是探底回升的节奏，所以咱们思路也就该明确了，下方极有可能形成大三底支撑金价，低多是接下来的重点趋势，点位上稳健建议大家继续关注1700区域；目前黄金没有破位1680支撑，也没有破位1724上方阻力，短线还是在下跌承压区间内震荡，那么操作上的思路就非常明确，回调1700附近做多，不破阻力做空，综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方关注1725-1730One line of resistance, pay attention below1702-1700Frontline support.

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