Guide Metallographer:7.20今日黄金走势分析，金银抗压，仍是高空思...

　　goldMessage interpretation:

Wednesday(7month20day)，国际金价小幅走低，出于对激进货币政策的担忧和债券收益率上升带来的利空超过了美元回落带来的利多。美指连续第四个交易日下跌，创两周新低至106.364，但仍处于相对高位。

United States10年期国债收益率此前连续两个交易日上涨。尽管黄金被视为通胀对冲工具，但较高的利率和债券收益率会提高持有非孳息资产黄金的机会成本。

　　消息人士透露称，欧洲央行(ECB)政策制定者正考虑在周四(7month21day)政策会议结束后将利率提高50个基点，而不是此前承诺的25个基点，以抑制创纪录的高通胀。欧元近一周持续反弹。

　　虽然美联储官员上周对本月加息100个基点的预期进行了降温，金价跌势最新几天有所缓和，但未能迎来预期中的报复性反弹，市场似乎在为新的跌势蓄积力量。

　　德国商业银行在周二发布的报告中指出：“近来，黄金并没有显示出作为通胀对冲工具和风险规避工具的声誉。尽管美国和欧洲的通胀率处于几十年来的最高水平，而且最近还在进一步上升，但黄金价格几周来一直处于抛售压力之下。即便是对经济衰退日益增长的担忧(股市大幅下跌和收益率曲线反向就是证明)也没有让黄金受益。相反，上周末金价甚至跌破每盎司1700美元关口，这是11个月来首次出现这种情况。”

　　德国商业银行的报告补充道：“更重要的是，黄金连续五周收跌，这也是近四年来从未出现过的情况。在这五周内，黄金价值下跌了近9%。越来越多失望的投资者放弃了他们的黄金投资，从而对价格施加了额外的压力。这一点在黄金ETF上尤其明显：在过去近四周内，彭博追踪的ETFThere are95吨黄金被撤出。这几乎是整个第二季度净流出的两倍。大约三分之二的资金流出是由全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR黄金信托基金(SPDRgoldTrust)记录的，该基金主要被机构投资者用作投资工具。”

Today's Focus:

　　14:00 Germany6monthPPIMonthly rate

　　14:00 britain6monthCPIMonthly rate

　　14:00 britain6Monthly Retail Price Index Monthly Rate

　　16:00 eurozone5Monthly adjusted current account

　　20:30 Canada6monthCPIMonthly rate

　　22:00 U.S.A6Annualized total monthly housing sales

Technical analysis of gold:

　　黄金昨日依旧低位窄幅整理修正，日线已连续停顿整理三个交易日，本周前两个交易日基本都处于1700上方震荡修正，美元的回落，限制了黄金的下跌动能，不过反弹的空间也不大，刚好配合技术指标的短暂局部修正，为后市下跌蓄势量能。日线目前暂时还处于10日线下方弱势整理，结合均线指标慢慢下移空头发散，而浪形空间仍在延伸当中，目前的停顿只是修正，并没有止跌见底迹象，还需要形态上的确认，未出现之前，先维持看空趋势不变。4小时布林道开始收平，短线局部收缩震荡，附图MACD此前创新低后出现底部背离，目前正处于修正背离当中，而修正手法结合反弹空间来看。属于弱势修正的手法，空间并没有形成反转向上，或者大幅度反弹。短线暂时还处于下跌台阶次高点1752下方震荡运行，同时离次高点还有一定距离。周初连续两个交易日维持在1726下方承压。小时图开始横向拉锯，形态稍显钝化。短线并看不出强弱延续，暂时进入震荡收缩当中。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以区间震荡为主，上方短期关注1720-1725Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1700-1695Frontline support.

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