Guide Metallographer:7.20美元三连跌金价仍无力反弹，后市还要跌？

　　goldMessage interpretation:

The United States announced on Tuesday6Total monthly construction permits recorded168.510000 households, higher than market expectations165万户；美国6Annual record of total monthly construction of new houses155.9万户，低于市场预期158Ten thousand households.

　　评论称，由于通胀和高借贷成本继续抑制需求和整体房地产市场，美国6月份新屋开工规模降至去年9月以来的最低水平。美国政府周二公布的数据显示，上月美国新屋开工数量同比下降2%, to156万套，5月份新屋开工数量年率向上修正为159万套。预期中值为158Ten thousand.

　　分析称，美联储理事沃勒此前曾强调，如果美国零售销售数据和本周的住房数据“实质性地”强于预期，那么这些数据可能是美联储加息100个基点的理由。但今日公布的美国6月新屋开工总数年化数据是弱于预期的，可以说是在加息100个基点的“棺材板“上再钉上了一颗钉子。

　　亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型显示，美国经济预计在第二季度收缩1.6%Below7month15Daily predicted1.5%的收缩。亚特兰大联储解释称，在今天美国新屋开工和营建许可数据发布后，纽约联储Nowcast模型对美国第二季度实际住宅投资增长的预测从-8.8%lower-10.1%。

　　英国央行行长贝利表示，货币政策将使通胀回落到目标水平。英国央行正考虑在8Monthly interest rate increase50个基点。目前是自1997年以来，英国针对通胀目标的货币政策机制面临的最大挑战。下次开会时，加息50个基点将是讨论的选项之一。50个基点的步伐并不是固定不变的，任何对此做出预测的人都是基于自己的观点。如果我们看到通胀持续加剧的迹象，而价格和工资的增长符合这样的迹象，我们将不得不采取强有力的行动。已经看到经济放缓。俄罗斯对通胀的影响，尤其是对欧洲天然气价格的影响，正朝着相反的方向发展。对最新数据的感觉是，供应链和商品受到的冲击已经开始缓解。

　　荷兰合作银行分析称，预计欧洲央行将把三大主要利率都上调25个基点。欧洲央行管委会可能会重申其指导意见，即可能在9月份进行更大规模的加息。此外，欧洲央行将推出传导保护机制工具(Transmission Protection Mechanism)，预计这一工具是开放式的，且将通过流动性流出操作进行冲销。但预计这些变化不会影响定向长期再融资操作(TLTRO)的套利交易。

According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is64.4%Interest rate hike100The probability of a basis point is35.6%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75、100The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is29.0%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is51.4%Interest rate hike175The probability of a basis point is19.6%。

Today's Focus:

　　14:00 Germany6monthPPIMonthly rate

　　14:00 britain6monthCPIMonthly rate

　　14:00 britain6Monthly Retail Price Index Monthly Rate

　　16:00 eurozone5Monthly adjusted current account

　　20:30 Canada6monthCPIMonthly rate

　　22:00 U.S.A6Annualized total monthly housing sales

Technical analysis of gold:

　　黄金昨日依旧低位窄幅整理修正，日线已连续停顿整理三个交易日，本周前两个交易日基本都处于1700上方震荡修正，美元的回落，限制了黄金的下跌动能，不过反弹的空间也不大，刚好配合技术指标的短暂局部修正，为后市下跌蓄势量能。日线目前暂时还处于10日线下方弱势整理，结合均线指标慢慢下移空头发散，而浪形空间仍在延伸当中，目前的停顿只是修正，并没有止跌见底迹象，还需要形态上的确认，未出现之前，先维持看空趋势不变。4小时布林道开始收平，短线局部收缩震荡，附图MACD此前创新低后出现底部背离，目前正处于修正背离当中，而修正手法结合反弹空间来看。属于弱势修正的手法，空间并没有形成反转向上，或者大幅度反弹。短线暂时还处于下跌台阶次高点1752下方震荡运行，同时离次高点还有一定距离。周初连续两个交易日维持在1726下方承压。小时图开始横向拉锯，形态稍显钝化。短线并看不出强弱延续，暂时进入震荡收缩当中。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以区间震荡为主，上方短期关注1720-1725Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1700-1695Frontline support.

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