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goldMessage interpretation:
近期,黄金在美联储持续加息的影响下,国际金价格便跌跌不休,迄今已累计下跌近18%。 The world's largest goldETFsince6月中旬以来也不断遭减持。根据CTFC持仓数据显示,截至7month12日当周,对冲基金所持COMEX黄金净多头头寸减少24058手合约至2748手合约,减幅达89.7%。同时,基金经理所持COMEX黄金净多头头寸减少24058手合约至2748手合约。目前国内现货黄金价格已经跌至370element/克附近的较低水平,市民购金热情再度升温,市场需求的增加为黄金价格带来一定支撑。
近日,美国总统拜登前往中东地区,试图推动沙特阿拉伯等海湾国家增产能源问题,来缓解美国通胀压力。此前,美方曾一度高调宣称,如果不是乌克兰危机导致全球能源短缺,拜登或许根本不会前往中东,此访将开启美国和中东关系新篇章。但结果沙特阿拉伯等中东国家仍然坚持限制产量,让拜登中东之行四处碰壁,最终无功而返。
能源增产问题未能得到有效解决,通胀压力也就不会得到有效缓解,因此,美联储持续加息概率依旧较高,黄金中长线偏下行。
Technical analysis of gold:
黄金日内先震荡回弹,欧盘时段上方测压至1723/24一线,虽然对前期交易低点有刺破,但并未能成功拿下站稳,这也就说明当前市场多头的实际动能还是欠缺的,在强势美元的打压下,多头信心显得不是很足。欧盘时段黄金承压回修,目前行情再跌回至1710附近,虽然市场表现出的状态是多头信心和实际动能不是很强,但技术上已经体现出反弹趋向,所以目前的回撤反倒可以给操作上带来一些机会。
黄金下方先关注1710-07一带短线支撑测试,只要今日行情能够稳住或收于1710上方,那么技术角度就还是有回弹预期的,只不过受市场对美联储加息预期的影响,多头回弹信心会受到打压,未来回弹空间也就不会很大,对此需要多加留心注意。晚间上方则依旧先关注1720-22一带压力,站稳之上则短线下跌风险基本解除,但还能够带来多少回升空间,还是得要参考美指回修幅度。综上所述,今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主,反弹做空为辅,上方关注1718-1722USD resistance, follow below1700-1705USD support.
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