Guide Metallographer:7.19今日黄金走势分析，黄金阴阳震荡循环欲破低

　　goldMessage interpretation:

International Gold Monday(7month18day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price1707.54dollar/Ounces, highest price1723.69dollar/Ounces, lowest price1705.79dollar/Ounces, closing price1710.30dollar/ounce.

The United States announced on Monday7monthNAHBReal estate market index recorded55, lower than market expectations66, previous value is67.

　　全美住房建筑商协会(NAHB)Indicating that the United States7monthNAHB房产市场指数暴跌至新冠疫情爆发的最初几个月以来的最低水平，原因是高通胀和借贷成本达到逾10年来的最高水平，导致客户流量几乎陷入停滞。该指数已连续第七个月下降，从6Of67lower55, for2020year5The lowest level since the beginning of the month.NAHBchairmanJerry Konter表示，生产瓶颈、房屋建造成本上升和通胀高企，导致许多建筑商暂停施工，因土地、建筑和融资成本超过房屋的市场价值。市场疲软的另一个迹象是，HMI调查显示，有13%的建筑商表示在过去一个月离，他们都在降低房价以促进销售和限制取消订单。该数据还表明，随着美联储开始加息，在疫情期间大部分时间里繁荣的房地产市场正在衰退。美联储今年已将利率从接近零的水平上调了1.5%，并可能在今年年底前再加息2%或更多。房地产市场对利率尤其敏感，迄今为止是受美联储政策转变影响最明显的行业。美国抵押贷款银行家协会的数据显示，今年住房贷款成本飙升，30年期固定利率抵押贷款的合同利率最近接近6%, for14年来的最高水平。除了NAHB数据显示的新屋市场疲弱外，截至5月的成屋销售已连续四个月下滑。

　　富国银行分析称，预计欧洲央行将在本周四加息25个基点，开始其加息周期。欧元区5月通胀率创下了8.1%的新高，预计未来几个月该地区通胀率将进一步走高，并可能在今年晚些时候见顶。然而，富国银行认为欧元区经济增长将强劲到足以大幅加息，欧洲央行在9Monthly interest rate increase50个基点的可能性更大，但不太可能多次加息50个基点。所以欧洲央行将在本周四加息25个基点、9Monthly interest rate increase50个基点、12Monthly interest rate increase25个基点，使政策利率在2022年底前达到0.50%。然后欧洲央行将在明年第一季度结束前加息25个基点，将存款利率上调至0.75%。

　　三菱日联分析称，仍有信心欧洲央行本周将坚持加息25个基点，然后在9月更大规模地加息50个基点。但该行认为，从逻辑上讲，在本周加息50个基点，然后在9月缩小加息幅度才更合理，但欧洲央行政策制定者近期没有表现出改变其加息指引的迹象。在9月之后，鉴于经济大幅放缓的风险不断加大，该行表示不像欧洲利率市场那样相信欧洲央行会一直加息到2023年第一季度。但至关重要的是，欧洲央行的利率决议要被视为有助于遏制金融分化风险的可信计划。如果欧洲央行在任何方面让人失望，那么欧元的下行风险将在近期进一步加强。

According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is69.1%Interest rate hike100The probability of a basis point is30.9%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75、100The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is34.6%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is50.0%Interest rate hike175The probability of a basis point is15.4%。

Today's Focus:

　　14:00 Switzerland6Monthly trade account

　　14:00 britain5Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate

　　14:00 britain6月失业金申请人数及失业率

　　17:00 eurozone6monthCPIAnnual rate final value and monthly rate

　　20:30 U.S.A6Annualized total monthly construction of new houses

　　20:30 U.S.A6Total monthly construction permits

The next day01:45 英国央行行长贝利发表讲话

Technical analysis of gold:

　　黄金日内先震荡回弹，欧盘时段上方测压至1723/24一线，虽然对前期交易低点有刺破，但并未能成功拿下站稳，这也就说明当前市场多头的实际动能还是欠缺的，在强势美元的打压下，多头信心显得不是很足。欧盘时段黄金承压回修，目前行情再跌回至1710附近，虽然市场表现出的状态是多头信心和实际动能不是很强，但技术上已经体现出反弹趋向，所以目前的回撤反倒可以给操作上带来一些机会。

　　黄金下方先关注1710-07一带短线支撑测试，只要今日行情能够稳住或收于1710上方，那么技术角度就还是有回弹预期的，只不过受市场对美联储加息预期的影响，多头回弹信心会受到打压，未来回弹空间也就不会很大，对此需要多加留心注意。晚间上方则依旧先关注1720-22一带压力，站稳之上则短线下跌风险基本解除，但还能够带来多少回升空间，还是得要参考美指回修幅度。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方关注1718-1722USD resistance, follow below1700-1705USD support.

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