Dingsheng Jinshi:7.18Analysis of the evening gold trend, interest rate hike controversy, bulls are afraid of waiting for opportunities...

Hello everyone, today is7month18Day, Monday.


　　【7.18eveninggoldAnalysis of the Latest Market Trends


Last Friday, gold fluctuated at a low level and opened slightly higher1716Afterwards, it fell back again, and the lowest point in the evening fell back to1699After the first line, there was a slight rebound, and the daily line closed with a cross bearish candlestick.


Gold has entered a critical period of deceleration and turning, and over the weekend, gold has already begun to4We have built a short-term bottom pattern at the hourly level, although4The hour cycle is not enough to change the overall weakness of gold, but the turning point has already begun to emerge. The market situation for this week was actually briefly discussed last week,4At present, the hour level has passed through oscillationsMACDThe fast and slow lines have once again crossed the golden line,4The bottom divergence pattern of the hour has already appeared, and this week we will continue to look at the upward trend of gold, with an upward pressure level1745It will be a key position in the short term. If it can be directly broken through, there is a possibility of gold successfully bottoming out. If it cannot be broken through, gold may hit the bottom again and rebound after bottoming out again at the daily level. Therefore, last week's bullish advice was given not only because there is indeed a bullish trend in the short term, but also to prevent gold from successfully bottoming out directly.


Fundamentally, the most concerning aspect of the market at present should be the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next Thursday, which exploded last WednesdayCPIAfter the data is released, interest rates will be raised100The comments on the basis point are rampant, and for last Friday's terrorist data, the market interprets it this way. If the terrorist data is more eye-catching, it indicates that the economy can currently afford to raise interest rates, and then the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates100The probability of one basis point is relatively high. If the terrifying data is dragging the economy, it indicates that the economy is already very fragile. Therefore, it is best for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates75Basis points.


What is the terrorist data release value on Friday1%Higher than previous values and expectations, according to previous market interpretations, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates100The expectation of a basis point increase has already been raised, but the market response is not so. Federal Reserve officials have taken turns coming out to suppress interest rate hikes100The expectation of one basis point is puzzling, as inflation continues to soar despite the Federal Reserve's continuous efforts to raise interest rates, and the current economic situation seems to also allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates100Why are Federal Reserve officials unwilling to raise interest rates significantly, even though it is only a few basis points?


I think this is related to another data from last Friday!


On Friday evening at 10 o'clock, another data was released, which is the next year for the University of Michigan/The expected inflation rate for the next five years shows that the American people's expectations for the next year and five years are decreasing, and Federal Reserve Director Waller also said that we do not want to make policies based on one data, although Wednesday'sCPIThe watch is broken, but the coreCPIBut it is continuously falling, and inflation expectations are also falling,6The bursting of the monthly chartCPIThe data is largely influenced by the rise in energy prices, and this impact is significant7Will the month decrease as energy prices fall? I think there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will7The month will continue to maintain75A basis point interest rate hike, while observing7Of the monthCPIPerformance.


Currently75A rate hike of one basis point has already been priced by the market, and if the Federal Reserve really raises interest rates75The bearish effect on gold is actually limited, and there may even be a bullish effect when all the bearish factors are depleted. However, it should be noted that the main suppressing effect on gold now is the skyrocketing US dollar, which is currently the only safe haven asset in the world. Currently, the US dollar has a short-term top, perfectly matching with the short-term bottom of gold. The US dollar also needs time to build a larger cycle top. At that time, Only gold can complete a complete turn!


At the golden hour level, you can see that gold walked out last Thursday night1697After the low point, the gold began to fluctuate upwards, which is consistent with the judgment in last week's gold video. The gold just shook and became a golden cross. This golden cross is4The golden cross of the hour, as it appears,4There has been a bullish divergence pattern at the hourly level, although this divergence may not necessarily drive gold out of a complete reversal. As shown in the figure, gold tested multiple times on Friday1702Support,1702It hit a low point on ThursdayKThe closing price of the line entity, and Friday's suggestion is also to rely on the support of this position to enter and long.


Golden Operation Strategy


At present, there is an uplink channel at the hourly level, and the position of the upper track1720The first line is currently the key suppression above gold, which can be further seen from above1733and1745, already in progress1702Those with multiple orders entering the frontline can continue to hold, while those with short positions will be monitored in the short term within the day1707-1710Frontline opportunities for advancement. Stop loss1705, Objective1725, take a break to see1735。


　　【7.18eveningcrude oilAnalysis of the Latest Market Trends


Last week, crude oil prices maintained a volatile downward trend, as announced by the US6monthCPIThe unexpected data significantly exceeded expectations, raising market expectations for a significant interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which is not conducive to oil prices. In addition, last week the US embarked on a trip to the Middle East, hoping to urge Middle Eastern countries to increase production, which also put heavy pressure on oil prices. The future crude oil supply is gradually becoming loose, and the United States andOPEC+The rate of increase in production is still slow, but the momentum of increase in production is good. Russian crude oil production has approached the level before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and there is room for easing supply in the medium term. This week, we need to closely monitor the results of the US visit to the Middle East, as well as the market's speculation on the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates.


Last Tuesday night,OPECPublished the latest monthly market report and provided feedback on2023The oil market underwent its first outlook for the year.OPEC7The monthly report shows that the supply shortage in the crude oil market has not been alleviated, althoughOPECorganization6Despite achieving a monthly increase in production, the total output is still far below the agreed amount. Due to insufficient investment in oil fields by some OPEC member countries and a decrease in Russian production, OPEC has been affected in recent months+The increase in oil production has been consistently below the target. The current supply in the market is still limited, and in the medium to long term, the positive for crude oil still outweighs the negative.


Overall, the short-term trend of crude oil prices has been relatively weak due to the stimulation of news and increased risk of demand concerns. At the daily level, the Bollinger Bands continued to open downwards, with prices fluctuating sideways near the lower bound. Although there was a bottoming out rebound last Thursday, it did not reverse the current weak trend.4In the early hours, the Bollinger Bands closed flat, with prices running between the upper and middle tracks. The opening price slightly declined in the morning and is currently supported by the middle track. However, the overall trend is weak, and there is a risk of a downward trend at any time within the day. The short-term operation strategy is temporarily bearish, with attention from above98.7A line of resistance.


Crude Oil Operation Strategy


Rebound101-103Short nearby, stop loss105, Objective97-95。


Serve as an analyst and commentator for well-known financial channels such as Sina Finance and Globalforeign exchange》Professional contributors to several well-known financial forums such as "Huitong Net" and "Zhongjin Net", specializing in short, medium, and long term operations of gold, crude oil, and silver. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market. Suggestions are for reference only; This article is original by Dingsheng Jinshi, who carefully writes every analysis and conveys valuable investment concepts. If there is any similarity, it is purely plagiarism. Readers should be discerning and respect originality!