Dingsheng Jinshi:7.11今日黄金走势分析，非农数据强劲，上行力...

【goldMessage Analysis


Last Friday(7month8day)Gold prices fell for the fourth consecutive week, dragged down by the strengthening US dollar, and bets on interest rate hikes increased after robust US employment data. In late US trading, spot gold closed higher1741.65dollar/Ounces, slightly up1.65USD or0.09%The highest daily hit1752.40dollar/Ounces, lowest touch1732.77dollar/ounce. This week, spot gold fell69.72USD or3.85%。6After the release of the monthly non farm employment report, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates75The probability of one basis point has increased. according toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is2.3%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is97.7%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase50、75The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is74.3%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is25.2%Accumulated interest rate increase175The probability of a basis point is0.5%。 Recently, despite the increasing risk of recession, gold has failed to attract safe haven funds as investors have turned to the US dollar, which has risen in exchange rate20A new high in the past year. U.S.A6The monthly employment growth exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate is still close to the low level before the outbreak of the epidemic, indicating the continued strength of the job market, leading to another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this month75A basis point provides ammunition. High interest rates reduce the attractiveness of gold because it has no interest, which increases the opportunity cost of holding gold. Future prospects; Qin Zeran believes that gold prices are supported by the risk of recession. After the recent adjustment, it is expected that prices will consolidate. But if the Federal Reserve can fight inflation without pushing the economy into recession, then a sustained rebound seems unlikely.


　　【黄金】


　　加息的消息还在市场上发酵，距离加息节点还有一周有余，黄金还需要最后一跌。黄金市场上的拐点是尖的，而不是那么做K线横着的结构，所以黄金还有最后一跌。


From a technical perspective of gold, at the weekly level, gold has been consistently negative for four consecutive years, and the moving average indicator is dead cross,KDJAndRSIIndex dead fork divergence,MACDThe dead cross of the indicator crosses the zero axis, with the empty side occupying an advantageous position; At the daily level, after the decline of gold, it temporarily stopped falling and stabilized. The low level was consolidated horizontally, and the moving average index diverged with a dead fork. The Bollinger band moved downwards,MACDDead fork divergence below the zero axis of the indicator,KDJAndRSIThe downward trend of the dead cross indicator has slowed down, with bears occupying a dominant position and prices in the short term being in the adjustment stage.


　　黄金上周在经历了连续两日大跌之后，基本处于横盘整理的态势，日线布林带开口向下，金价在下轨附近横盘整理，并未表现出太多的反弹动能，短线走势还是震荡偏空。4小时，布林带走平，价格多次向1750上方试探，但均未能有效破位，上方阻力强劲，在低位形成1750-1730区间震荡，目前价格受到布林中轨压制，短线上行难度较大，而日内关注的重点就是上方1750一线的阻力，加上基本面利空消息影响，只要不上破1750一线，下行风险就会进一步增加。


　　现在大趋势还是空，黄金并没有明显的反转信号，在此之前放空才是主题。1746一线存在压力，同时4小时中轨也压制金价难以上行，等黄金稍稍反弹可立即干空。


Strategy


Gold rebound1745-50Near empty, stop loss1752, Objective1732、1725！


　　首次触及1720附近短多，止损4Point, look at the target1740！


　　【crude oil】


　　原油近期基本处于震荡下行的态势，并且在上周一度跌破100美元这一重要关口。日线级别，布林带有收口迹象，价格整体运行于下行通道之中，而布林中轨的压制尤为明显，价格两次触及到中轨后都快速下跌，整体走势呈阶梯式下行。4小时，布林带走平，价格连续反弹之后在前期顶底转换位置横盘震荡，日内短线需关注此位置的破位情况，也就是105.5On the first line, if the price does not break, the probability of the future market will still revolve around100The US dollar continues to maintain a low and volatile trend, and short selling can be achieved through a rebound in operational thinking within the day.


Strategy


　　激进者105.5-106Short selling, stop loss10Point, look at the target100; Steady person108.5-109Short selling, stop loss10Point, look at the target100Nearby!


Serve as an analyst and commentator for well-known financial channels such as Sina Finance and Globalforeign exchange》Professional contributors to several well-known financial forums such as "Huitong Net" and "Zhongjin Net", specializing in short, medium, and long term operations of gold, crude oil, and silver. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market. Suggestions are for reference only; This article is original by Dingsheng Jinshi, who carefully writes every analysis and conveys valuable investment concepts. If there is any similarity, it is purely plagiarism. Readers should be discerning and respect originality!