Qin Zeran: Analysis of the gold and crude oil market, latest trend analysis and operational strategies, in...

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Always stay on the front line of investment and maintain a scientific attitude towards the investment market! Refuse to be blind, refuse to be ambiguous - Hello everyone,I am Teacher Qin Zeran!

There are no unprofitable investments, only immature operational models and precise and unique market structure analysis. I amgoldSenior analyst Qin Zeran is proficient in the band trend operation of the gold market, daily high and low short-term operations, has years of in-depth research on the rhythm of the market, has a bold and unrestrained personality, and sharp and accurate trading techniques. Over the years of employment, I have diligently helped countless friends who have fallen into confusion in their investments to get out of the mud. If you have any difficulties, Zeran has clever solutions!

Analysis of the latest gold market:

Analysis of Gold News: Last Friday(7month8day)Gold prices fell for the fourth consecutive week, dragged down by the strengthening US dollar, and bets on interest rate hikes increased after robust US employment data. In late US trading, spot gold closed higher1741.65dollar/Ounces, slightly up1.65USD or0.09%The highest daily hit1752.40dollar/Ounces, lowest touch1732.77dollar/ounce. This week, spot gold fell69.72USD or3.85%。6After the release of the monthly non farm employment report, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates75The probability of one basis point has increased. according toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is2.3%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is97.7%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase50、75The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is74.3%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is25.2%Accumulated interest rate increase175The probability of a basis point is0.5%。 Recently, despite the increasing risk of recession, gold has failed to attract safe haven funds as investors have turned to the US dollar, which has risen in exchange rate20A new high in the past year. U.S.A6The monthly employment growth exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate is still close to the low level before the outbreak of the epidemic, indicating the continued strength of the job market, leading to another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this month75A basis point provides ammunition. High interest rates reduce the attractiveness of gold because it has no interest, which increases the opportunity cost of holding gold. Future prospects; Qin Zeran believes that gold prices are supported by the risk of recession. After the recent adjustment, it is expected that prices will consolidate. But if the Federal Reserve can fight inflation without pushing the economy into recession, then a sustained rebound seems unlikely.

From a technical perspective of gold, at the weekly level, gold has been consistently negative for four consecutive years, and the moving average indicator is dead cross,KDJAndRSIIndex dead fork divergence,MACDThe dead cross of the indicator crosses the zero axis, with the empty side occupying an advantageous position; At the daily level, after the decline of gold, it temporarily stopped falling and stabilized. The low level was consolidated horizontally, and the moving average index diverged with a dead fork. The Bollinger band moved downwards,MACDDead fork divergence below the zero axis of the indicator,KDJAndRSIThe downward trend of the dead cross indicator has slowed down, with bears occupying a dominant position and prices in the short term being in the adjustment stage.

From the gold hour chart, it can be seen that the gold price has clearly broken through the support to resistance line that began last Friday, coupled withMACDSending a bullish signal, this allows bullish gold bulls to maintain hope for gold prices within the three-day upward trend channel. The price of gold will be1750dollar/Nearby ounces50The periodic moving average encounters resistance, and the next resistance is on the upper edge of the channel(near1752dollar/ounce)。 If the gold price is conquered1752dollar/Resistance around ounces, then gold prices may rise100Periodic moving average and last week's decline50%Fibonacci retreat(stay1774dollar/Around ounces)。 Breach1774dollar/The ounce level seems to be a tricky issue for gold bulls. On the downside, if there is a pullback in gold, then the gold price needs to fall below the channel support line1737dollar/Ounces to attract gold bears. If it falls below this support, gold prices may challenge their recent lows1732dollar/ounce. If the gold price falls below1732dollar/Ounces, then it's not ruled out that gold prices will fall1721dollar/Nearby ounces2021year9The possibility of a monthly low. In summary, Qin Zeran summarized that in terms of gold's operation strategy today, it is recommended to mainly rebound and short, supplemented by a lot of underperformance, with short-term attention from above1755-1760Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1730-1725Frontline support.

　　crude oilLatest market analysis:

Analysis of crude oil news: Last week's international oil price hit a record low4Since mid month, it has reached a new low as investors' concerns about the prospects of a global economic recession have intensified, suppressing fuel demand. However, investors are also concernedOPECThe tight supply caused by factors such as production cuts, geopolitical turmoil, and strikes has further limited the decline in oil prices. Last week, the Libyan National Oil Company stated that Libya's export volume has decreased to36.510000 barrels to40.910000 barrels/Day, a decrease of approximately86.510000 barrels/Day. According to the survey, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)of10Member states in6Monthly production reduction1010000 barrels/Day, to285210000 barrels/Day, failed to fulfill its promise27.510000 barrels/Increase production daily. There are reports that Japan has proposed limiting Russian oil prices to around half of their current levels. In response, former Russian President Medvedev warned that this move would lead to a significant reduction in oil supply in the market and push prices up to a barrel300USD or even400The US dollar is not enough. Traders are paying attention to the Caspian Pipeline Alliance(CPC)Possible interruption of oil supply. The Russian court has issued a ruling demanding that the alliance suspend operations30Days. The Western sanctions against Russia have led to a decrease in their oil exports and pushed up oil prices. But the United States stated that Kazakhstan's oil exports through Russia should not be interrupted. With more interest rate hikes and the possibility of a technical recession in the US economy, bulls' ambitions may be very limited. The only reason why oil prices did not start a decline is that Russia actively and passively restricted oil production.

Technical analysis of crude oil: Crude oil rebounded and turned positive last Friday to recover from the previous day's losses, with a daily double negative to positive trend. In the short term, it remains a broad range of fluctuations, coupled with key support points below93.0Not lost, neck line not lost, unable to open up the downward space in the short term. Although there was a decline at the beginning of the week, the overall operation is still within a wide range. The daily cycle of yin and yang will still be tested in the short term93.0-95.0Supporting the area, it is not ruled out to repeatedly touch the height, forming a sawing of intervals. Previously, the retreat was supported on the Bollinger track and also by the neckline, with no breakthrough in key points and mainly characterized by short-term fluctuations.

Crude oil4The downward trend and rebound of the hour have recovered the lost ground from the previous day's decline, and the weakness will not continue. In the short term, it will bring back the volatility, whileKThe physical recovery of the line is relatively strong, and the white market may continue to rebound first, but sustainability is still the main problem at present. The unilateral trend does not continue enough, and when it is reflected in the short term, it will swing back and forth. In volatile markets with a large volatility base, short-term operations are more concerned with entry points, followed by direction. Finding a good entry point provides opportunities for both long and short positions. Overall, in terms of short-term operation strategy for crude oil today, Qin Zeran suggested that the main approach should be to step back and lower, supplemented by a rebound in high altitude, with a focus on short-term operations above106.5-107.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below102.0-101.5Frontline support.

I believe everyone has seen too many analysts who show their profits in various markets, but Qin Zeran does not have magnificent profits. His strategy is publicly disclosed by friends every day, and the strategy is accurate and verified by the market situation. Keeping up is earning! No one earns every day, but someone earns every day. The difference lies in whether that person is you! There are many friends who have added Qin Zeran and are always skeptical about Qin Zeran's strategy. Is Teacher Qin's strategy accurate? Am I following or not? What should I do if I lose? I'll take a look again. Then the market came, others made a profit, and you lost. You always miss one opportunity after another in a skeptical wait and see, and then miss the next opportunity in a sigh of regret, so repeatedly that you lose the whole game. As an investor, we should remember our original intention of coming to this market and not let all our efforts go to waste. We should take cooperation and win-win as the starting point, cultivate and promote a healthy, harmonious and standardized trading philosophy, fundamentally eliminate non-performing trading models and order taking models, and truly achieve mutual benefit.

This article is originally contributed by Qin Zeran. I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Due to the delay of network push, the above contents are personal suggestions. Since the network documents are timely, the suggestions are only for reference, and operational risk is borne by yourself! Reproduction and plagiarism without permission are strictly prohibited.