Guide Metallographer:7.8今日黄金走势分析，非农来袭，金价风雨欲来

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　经过两天的持续下跌之后，隔夜金价窄幅整理，晚间20:30公布美国6月非农就业数据，多空大战展开。


　　针对6月就业数据各大投行预期幅度不一，总体而言，美国6月季调后非农就业人口增幅预期中值为26.8万，失业率预期为3.6%。但市场预期区间，就业人数整体介于17.5ten thousand-32.5万，失业率整体介于3.5％-3.6％，平均时薪年率增幅整体介于5.0％-5.2%.


　　从近期数据来看，非农就业人口增幅自2月份以来呈现连续下滑状态，失业率自3月份以来持平3.6%。就业市场增长整体呈现放缓。按近期数据，从ISM制造业和非制造业的就业分项指数、初请失业金人数变动、裁员等数据来看，美国6月失业率大概率会上升，新增就业也会放缓。


　　继美联储3月首次加息至今，联邦基准利率已经上调150bp，流动性的收紧对就业，乃至美国整体经济产生了遏制。美国实际通胀数据仍然高企，如果就业市场不景气，将可能持续遏制美国消费动力，对经济进一步施压。


　　故整体而言，本次非农就业数据若整体走弱，将利多金价；但如数据意外好于预期，金价料持续下行。晚间非农数据之后，还须留意纽约联储主席威廉姆斯讲话。


Technical analysis of gold:


　　昨天黄金震荡上下窜，早盘先拉高回落，欧美盘先回落再新高后回落，整体形成了1737-1748的窄幅震荡，符合预期，对于当下的盘面来看，重点是晚上的非农数据，从基本面来看，非农预期是利好黄金，而技术面对应的美元来看，日线形成高位弱空，下方测试加速线这里破位回下线，这样对黄金也是一种支撑，另外直接看黄金，日图周三破加速线到达我们预期的32，昨天收十字，从系统来看，日图昨天没有50反而回防是一种反复的蓄势，因为指标已经超卖，不修正直接下跌空间有限，其次四小时在低位出现弱多反弹信号，现在看日内主要是反弹下线这里的压制，一旦四小时破高并收盘于下线上方，日内进一步反弹的概率的加大，这样黄金的四小时与美元的四小时正好形成一种反制，所以四小时没有出现二次弱转的情况下，直接破底的概率是0，收在下线上方看高一线，上方一线十字底，二加速线，三是日图的下线，所以只是看反弹，只有冲过日图下线才能确定底部，因此结论就是趋势看空，但是短期看反弹；


Gold currently4小时图短线走出一波单边的放量，同时也创出近期的最大单日跌幅，波动基数开始加大，K线形态则是大阴线下挫放量，小阳线反弹修正，反弹空间小，弱势修正的手法。金价触及1732低点转换小阳线再修正，目前已有两根小阳K线的修正，结合昨日的整理修正走法，接下来会转阴再惯性的摔低，故亚欧盘的反弹是一个空点，随着日线和4小时的放量，日内短线在摔低之后，低位的空单及时落袋，可能伴随反复的下探回升整理再蓄势下跌。综上所述指南金师总结：今日黄金操作上考虑反弹做空为主，上方关注1756-1762USD resistance, follow below1730-1720USD support


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