Xiao Yizhou:7.8Analysis of the latest trend of gold, vigilant against non agricultural market in the evening.

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　　萧毅舟——以下是日内黄金原油每日走势分析及具体操作策略

　　趋势分析：昨日黄金市场陷入短期多空分歧格局，金价在1730-1750美元区间呈现持续震荡走势，日k线收一根十字星，说明经过连续两天大暴跌后，市场出现一定的分歧。当然这也是重大消息前的市场再平衡过程。因为今晚将公布美国6月非农就业数据和失业率，市场必然等待这一个信息的方向指引。我们从月线来看，现在金价已经跌破了年初低点，空头成功逆转了1-3月份因俄乌局势而引发的多头行情，金价重返中长期空头格局，使得双顶形态逐步被确认。这对未来金价的走势非常不利。至少我们应该要彻底放弃金价长期上涨的错误观点。当前头部形态明显要重于上行趋势线。更何况上涨趋势线已经被两跟收阴的月线突破和确认。以月线的双顶头部来测试，那么下一轮空头趋势，至少能够收复2020年因疫情突发叠加美联储无限量宽松而引发的涨幅，这样的话，那么金价要回到疫情前的水平1400美元附近。短期来看，今天必然会发生激烈的多空争夺，但跌势并未停止，我认为至少要探及一次两年低点1680Around the US dollar.

　　今日亚洲市场开盘后，受昨日十字星鼓舞，激进的短线多头有一定动能，金价有一定的反弹动能。但考虑到今晚有非农重磅数据，多空双方更加倾向于谨慎的状态。预计金价最多反弹至1750美元附近，依然会有不断的抛售力量压制金价。不排除非农公布后空头再度启动抛售的可能。

　　策略：黄金1750Empty, stop loss1758Stop surplus1730, take a break to see1720

Analysis of the latest crude oil market:

Analysis of crude oil news: Friday7month8日亚洲时段，美原油微涨，现报102.65dollar/桶，尽管库存增加，但供应担忧盖过了对全球经济放缓的担忧，油价受到提振，且俄罗斯一家法院下令停止从黑海码头装运原油，为欧洲能源危机再添窘困，俄罗斯一家法院下令停止从黑海码头装运原油，对于已经感受到多年来最严峻供应状况的欧洲原油交易员来说，这个消息让他们更加如坐针毡，与俄油构成竞争关系的其他石油价格应声上扬。周二，俄罗斯法院下令暂停CPC终端暂停营运30天，以往每月超过3000万桶原油（主要是哈萨克斯坦原油）通过该终端出口到海外。法院表示，下达禁止令是因为该设施违反了预防漏油计划。目前终端运行正常。但如果法令实施，对欧洲石油市场将是又一次冲击。由于利比亚局势的动荡，本来供应已经少了一大块，预计来自其他地区的石油也会出现大幅下降。华盛顿周三收紧了对石油输出国组织(OPEC)成员国伊朗的制裁，在德黑兰寻求恢复2015年伊朗核协议并释放其出口时对其施加压力，这进一步挤压了全球供应。总体来看，尽管库存增加，但油价更多的受到供应担忧的提振，且俄罗斯新举措为欧洲能源危机再添窘困，供应紧张加剧，油价短线或回升，但日内交易还需关注非农数据，若就业数据显示美国经济衰退，日内短线油价涨幅或受限。

　　原油从技术面来看，日线级别震荡下跌；MACDDead fork,KDJ死叉，空头占据上风，短线油价仍有进一步下跌风险，初步支撑在隔夜低点95.14附近，（4month25日低点支撑也在该位置附近），200The daily moving average is supported by93.35Nearby（4month11日低点支撑也在该位置附近），该支撑需要重点关注，如果失守该支撑，则增加中线看空信号。布林线轨道开口，投资者需要提防油价沿布林线下轨向下运行的可能性。在失守200日均线前，需要提防多头反扑，初步阻力在100Near the integer level,6month22Resistance at daily low points101.54Nearby,5Daily moving average resistance103.19Nearby,100Daily moving average resistance106.78，多头若能收复该位置，则暗示趋势转多。小时图上看，NYMEX油价料升破99.58USD, and further up touch102.34美元。它们分别是6month29day-7month6日下行空间的23.6%and38.2%斐波那契回档位。综合来看，原油今日短线操作思路上萧毅舟建议以回踩低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注105.5-106.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below101.0-100.5Frontline support.

Yizhou Case Sharing:

Ms. Fang from Shanghai used to have a list with other mentors,5In less than a week, Wanmei Gold had completely lost money, and Ms. Fang, who was afraid of repeating the same mistakes, observed the strategies of Xiao Yizhou's daily articles and added Xiao Yizhou to the experience group. After careful examination, she finally made up her mind to join the gold5000The US dollar experience warehouse joined Xiao Yizhou's real market camp and seized the opportunity. After the major market during the Non Agricultural Week, the funds nearly doubled in a week2After Non Agricultural Week, the market has become more clear and I have become a loyal fan to this day. Life is like this. Novice is afraid of excessive fluctuations in the market, and veteran is afraid of fluctuations in the market. There are no two identical leaves in the world, but there are identical profits, identical operations, and some people do the same points in different directions, so the results must be completely different. It is not so much the market and the market that afflict you as it is their lack of experience. Don't lose heart. No one is always unlucky, Don't be discouraged, no one has been smooth sailing, experienced a bull market, experienced a bear market, accepted a sharp drop, crossed a sharp rise, nothing can make you stronger than this. Being strong requires accumulation, and profits are also the same. You won't always lose money, and others won't always be profitable. What you need to understand is how to survive in this market! If you are willing to come, I will help you! Xiao Yizhou Technical Team Guidance Official WeChatxyz15896。

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