Guide Metallographer:7.7今日黄金走势分析，黄金重点关注哪些数据

　　goldInterpretation of message surface:


Wednesday's announcement of the United States6monthISMNon manufacturingPMIby55.3Higher than market expectations54.3, previous value is55.9.


Commentary states that the United States6月服务业放缓幅度小于预期，但服务业就业指标降至两年低点，暗示劳动力需求可能正在消退，因美联储激进的货币政策立场可能令经济陷入衰退。数据显示，利率上升令需求降温。5月份消费者支出温和增长，而房屋开工、建筑许可和工厂产出则走软。


United States6monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value recorded52.7Higher than market expectations51.6, previous value is51.6.


　　评论称，6月份出现了经济普遍疲软的迹象，制造业和服务业的需求都在下降。调查数据显示第二季度末GDP将陷入停滞，前瞻性新订单指数的放缓以及企业未来产出预期的下降，暗示着整个夏季经济活动将出现下滑。由于生活成本的上升，美国家庭对商品和服务的需求正显示出大幅放缓的迹象。与此同时，金融环境开始收紧，值得注意的是，服务业放缓是由金融服务活动急剧下降导致的。与此同时，价格上涨压力明显缓解，这是一个可喜的消息，但很明显，尽管价格涨幅从近期高点回落，但仍处于高位，所有这些都表明，近期将出现一轮滞涨。


　　周四凌晨公布的美联储货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储官员预计第二季度经济增长将反弹。与会者认为，迄今为止几乎没有证据表明供应限制的缓解程度足以帮助控制通胀。6月政策会议的与会者“同意”通胀前景恶化，因此有理由加息75个基点。大多数参与者认为经济增长存在下行风险，包括美联储加息可能产生“超出预期”的影响。许多人认为通胀根深蒂固的风险很大。美联储官员认为7monthFOMC会议上将加息50Basis points or75个基点。如果通货膨胀持续下去，美联储认为“更限制性的”利率水平是有可能的。美联储许多官员担忧长期价格预期可能会上升。美联储乔治是在6月份不支持加息75个基点唯一一名委员。


　　分析称，6月美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要证实，美联储希望将联邦基金利率调至限制性区间，以对抗通胀。其结果是市场对最终利率及其走向的预期都过低。美联储可能会被迫加息，即使经济衰退已经明显临近。人们只能寄希望于食品和能源价格能够缓和，但不切实际的高GDP预期和仍然很高的盈利预期增加了股市的下行风险。


　　IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃表示，因自上次经济预测更新以来，全球经济前景“显著黯淡”，不排除2023年全球经济衰退的可能性。国际货币基金组织将在未来几周内下调对2022Annual global economic growth3.6%的预测，目前国际货币基金组织经济学家仍在敲定新预期。


　　德意志银行分析称，美国经济部分领域的弱点蔓延到仍然强劲的劳动力市场和服务业的可能性正在上升，这将造成人员失业，令美联储对抗通胀更加艰难。德意志银行的经济学家现在预计，第二季度美国GDP折合年率萎缩0.6%，这将意味着连续第二个季度经济萎缩，从而使美国经济陷入技术性衰退；仍然预计全年经济将实现增长，增幅0.6%, to2023年中期经济将陷入全面衰退。尽管这并不意味着经济衰退近在眼前，但历史上，最终销售增速下降如此之大、而经济又不陷入衰退的情况并不多。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day7.61Tons, current position is1024.43Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is3.7%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is96.3%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase50、75The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is3.4%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is88.0%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is8.7%。


Today's Focus:


　　13:45Switzerland6Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment


　　14:00Germany5Monthly industrial output rate after quarterly adjustment


　　14:00britain6monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index after quarterly adjustment


　　16:00China6monthforeign exchangereserve


　　16:30英国央行公布对政策制定者的调查报告


　　19:30U.S.A6Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs


　　19:30Announced by the European Central Bank6Monthly Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


　　20:30From the United States to7month2Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A5Monthly trade account


The next day01:00美联储理事沃勒接受媒体采访


The next day01:00Fed Brad delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


　　从三月加息黄金自2070都是震荡下跌每次下跌震荡一个时代，下跌幅度近200dollar2070reach1900时代，1900reach1786时代，现在6month7月加息超预期，甚至不排除加息100基点，显然后期加息缩表继续，美联储再次提示通胀误判，其实就是告诉你加息缩表高于预期而且坚定紧缩刚刚开始那么黄金下跌主旋律，中长期黄金利空不断，日线5浪下跌形态明显走势，即使下跌复制1wave175美金，那么黄金至少要到1700区域，如果7月在强势也许1600时代。日线均线压制下跌，每次过山车冲高回落显然多头持续动能没有，那么显然再次下跌是大概率。日线大阴破位，总体依然空头控制盘面，你必须有一个大格局，要知道疫情时候黄金1450涨上来的，现在宽松变成紧缩货币政策，哪里来到哪里去，大趋势做空，那么你要做的就是压力区域分批布局做空。


Gold opened yesterday at1765.47dollar/盎司，亚欧盘金价窄幅震荡，最高点触及1772.8水平徘徊，美盘震荡下破，最低触及1731徘徊。日线级别大阴线，昨日发文就已经分析了，金价处于空头下跌第五波走势中，预期目标在1725-1720水平，从今日低开低走的格局上看，金价空头还没有走完，还是以反弹做空思路对待。综上所述指南金师总结：今日黄金操作上建议以反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注1752-1757Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1730-1725Frontline support.


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